A Bayesian framework for verification and recalibration of ensemble forecasts: How uncertain is NAO predictability?

Predictability estimates of ensemble prediction systems are uncertain due to limited numbers of past forecasts and observations. To account for such uncertainty, this paper proposes a Bayesian inferential framework that provides a simple 6-parameter representation of ensemble forecasting systems and the corresponding observations. The framework is probabilistic, and thus allows for quantifying uncertainty in predictability measures such as correlation skill and signal-to-noise ratios. It also provides a natural way to produce recalibrated probabilistic predictions from uncalibrated ensembles forecasts. The framework is used to address important questions concerning the skill of winter hindcasts of the North Atlantic Oscillation for 1992-2011 issued by the Met Office GloSea5 climate prediction system. Although there is much uncertainty in the correlation between ensemble mean and observations, there is strong evidence of skill: the 95% credible interval of the correlation coefficient of [0.19,0.68] does not overlap zero. There is also strong evidence that the forecasts are not exchangeable with the observations: With over 99% certainty, the signal-to-noise ratio of the forecasts is smaller than the signal-to-noise ratio of the observations, which suggests that raw forecasts should not be taken as representative scenarios of the observations. Forecast recalibration is thus required, which can be coherently addressed within the proposed framework.Comment: 36 pages, 10 figure

Acupuncture in Oncology: The Effectiveness of Acupuncture May Not Depend on Needle Retention Duration

© 2017, © The Author(s) 2017. Background. Guidelines surrounding optimum needle retention duration in acupuncture have not been established, despite a growing evidence base for acupuncture over recent decades. This retrospective study explored the effect of varying acupuncture needle retention durations in cancer patients. Method. Patients received either 2 (n = 35), 10 (n = 53), or 20 minutes (n = 54) of acupuncture once a week for 6 weeks. Outcomes of anxiety and depression, stress, fatigue, and quality of life (QOL), with the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale, Perceived Stress Scale, Functional Assessment of Cancer Therapy–Fatigue, and European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer Quality of Life, were measured at baseline and at 6 weeks following the intervention. Results. The mean age of participants was 58 years (n = 152). The majority were female, diagnosed with breast cancer. Depression, stress, fatigue, and QOL were significantly improved in all 3 groups at 6 weeks postintervention. No significant differences in all outcomes were found between the 3 groups (≤2 vs 10 minutes vs 20 minutes). There were no differences with the satisfaction of the acupuncture services and perceived efficacy of acupuncture among the 3 groups. More than 95% of participants indicated that they would recommend acupuncture to other cancer patients, friends, and their family members. Conclusion. The efficacy of acupuncture may not only depend on needle retention duration, but may also be associated with multiple factors. Considering the limitations of this study design, robust randomized controlled studies are warranted to confirm the findings

Religious schools: For spirit, (f)or nation

10.1068/d394Environment and Planning D: Society and Space234615-63

Neutronics assessment of EU DEMO alternative divertor configurations

Abstract As a demonstration fusion power plant, EU DEMO has to prove the maturity of fusion technology and its viability for electricity production. The central requirements for DEMO rest on its capability to generate significant net electric power to the grid (300 MW to 500 MW) safely and consistently. Plant availability and lifetime will approach that of a commercial fusion power plant. Operating at such regimes presents many complex challenges, of which one is plasma exhaust. To mitigate the risk that the implementation in preceding experimental devices, namely ITER, does not extrapolate to the requirement of DEMO, alternative solutions must be sought. The investigation of alternative divertor configurations was born out of this motive, seeking to resolve a 'critical' challenge for the realisation of DEMO. In this paper, we study the neutronics performance of three concepts: Single Null (SN), Super-X (SX) and X-divertor (XD). This is the first time a preliminary analysis of alternative configurations to the SN baseline has been performed. The shielding proposals and design recommendations presented herein should be integrated with other engineering and physics constraints in future iterations of the chosen divertor concept

Labour market experiences of young UK Bangladeshi men: Identity, inclusion and exclusion in inner-city London

Detailed qualitative data are used to explore the processes perpetuatinglabour market disadvantage among young UK-Bangladeshi men living in central London. Strong forces of inclusion within the Bangladeshi community are found to interact with forces of exclusion from ‘mainstream’ society to constrain aspirations and limit opportunities. Though diverse forms of young Bangladeshi masculinity are found, a common pattern is heavy dependency on intra-ethnic networks. Negative experiences of and isolation from ‘mainstream’ society further reinforce reliance on ‘our own people’. However, acute ambivalence towards belonging to a dense Bangladeshi community exists, exemplified in the widespread denigration of the restaurant trade. Many respondents express the desire to ‘break out’ and access new experiences. The findings support current policy emphasis on ‘connecting people to work’ but highlight the more fundamental need to connect people across ethnic boundaries. The paper urges researchers to ‘unpack’ ethnicity to consider carefully what ethnic identity implies in terms of access to resources and opportunities for different individuals in different contexts in order better to understand the diversity of labour market outcomes and the persistence of disadvantage

Co-designing drug alerts for health and community workers for an emerging early warning system in Victoria, Australia

Background: Alerts about changes in unregulated drug markets may be useful for supporting health and community workers to anticipate, prevent, and respond to unexpected adverse drug events. This study aimed to establish factors influencing the successful design and implementation of drug alerts for use in clinical and community service settings in Victoria, Australia. Methods: An iterative mixed methods design was used to co-produce drug alert prototypes with practitioners and managers working across various alcohol and other drug services and emergency medicine settings. A quantitative needs-analysis survey (n = 184) informed five qualitative co-design workshops (n = 31). Alert prototypes were drafted based on findings and tested for utility and acceptability. Applicable constructs from the Consolidated Framework for Implementation Research helped to conceptualise factors that impact successful alert system design. Results: Timely and reliable alerts about unexpected drug market changes were important to nearly all workers (98%) yet many reported insufficient access to this kind of information (64%). Workers considered themselves ‘conduits’ for information-sharing and valued alerts for increasing exposure to drug market intelligence; facilitating communication about potential threats and trends; and improving capacity for effective responding to drug-related harm. Alerts should be ‘shareable’ across a range of clinical and community settings and audiences. To maximise engagement and impact, alerts must command attention, be easily recognisable, be available on multiple platforms (electronic and printable formats) in varying levels of detail, and be disseminated via appropriate notification mechanisms to meet the needs of diverse stakeholder groups. Three drug alert prototypes (SMS prompt, summary flyer, and a detailed poster) were endorsed by workers as useful for supporting their work responding to unexpected drug-related harms. Discussion: Alerts informed by coordinated early warning networks that offer close to real-time detection of unexpected substances can provide rapid, evidence-based drug market intelligence to inform preventive and responsive action to drug-related harm. The success of alert systems requires adequate planning and resourcing to support design, implementation, and evaluation, which includes consultation with all relevant audiences to understand how to maximise engagement with information, recommendations, and advice. Our findings about factors impacting successful alert design have utility to inform the development of local early warning systems

Barriers for highly qualified A8 immigrants in the UK labour market

The number of migrants arriving in the UK from the EU accession countries has been higher than projected. The evidence indicates that they have been over-represented in low-paid and low-skilled jobs. This is arguably transitory and there should be good prospects of upward mobility. Over-qualification among A8 migrants, measured using the Annual Population Survey data, is examined in this article. The findings show that A8 migrants have been subject to migration penalties at the high end of the UK labour market. There are persistent labour market disadvantages for A8 migrants in the UK and their over-qualification may be a long-term concern

The Decadal Climate Prediction Project (DCPP) contribution to CMIP6

The Decadal Climate Prediction Project (DCPP) is a coordinated multi-model investigation into decadal climate prediction, predictability, and variability. The DCPP makes use of past experience in simulating and predicting decadal variability and forced climate change gained from the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and elsewhere. It builds on recent improvements in models, in the reanalysis of climate data, in methods of initialization and ensemble generation, and in data treatment and analysis to propose an extended comprehensive decadal prediction investigation as a contribution to CMIP6 (Eyring et al., 2016) and to the WCRP Grand Challenge on Near Term Climate Prediction (Kushnir et al., 2016). The DCPP consists of three components. Component A comprises the production and analysis of an extensive archive of retrospective forecasts to be used to assess and understand historical decadal prediction skill, as a basis for improvements in all aspects of end-to-end decadal prediction, and as a basis for forecasting on annual to decadal timescales. Component B undertakes ongoing production, analysis and dissemination of experimental quasi-real-time multi-model forecasts as a basis for potential operational forecast production. Component C involves the organization and coordination of case studies of particular climate shifts and variations, both natural and naturally forced (e.g. the "hiatus", volcanoes), including the study of the mechanisms that determine these behaviours. Groups are invited to participate in as many or as few of the components of the DCPP, each of which are separately prioritized, as are of interest to them.The Decadal Climate Prediction Project addresses a range of scientific issues involving the ability of the climate system to be predicted on annual to decadal timescales, the skill that is currently and potentially available, the mechanisms involved in long timescale variability, and the production of forecasts of benefit to both science and society

Automated parametric neutronics analysis of the Helium Cooled Pebble Bed breeder blanket with Be₁₂Ti

The Helium Cooled Pebble Bed (HCPB) breeder blanket is being developed as part of the European Fusion Programme. Part of the programme is to investigate blanket designs relevant for future demonstration fusion power plants. This paper presents neutronics analyses of the HCPB with an alternative neutron multiplier, Be12Ti which is incorporated into the design, replacing the current Be multiplier. A parameter study was performed for a range of geometries to identify the optimal heights of the lithium ceramic and neutron multiplier pebble beds. Automated creation of CAD models followed by conversion to constructive solid geometry (CSG) and unstructured mesh (UM) geometry allows the models to be useful for both neutronics simulations and engineering simulations. In this neutronics study simulations were performed using MCNP 6.1 to find the tritium breeding ratio, energy multiplication and the volumetric heat loads of different blanket designs. Combinations of geometry parameters and material choices that resulted in adequate TBR values were identified and will be further investigated with automated engineering simulations. This paper provides insight, supported by neutronics analysis, on the validity of the design and comments on some of the potential advantages and disadvantages of using Be12Ti in the Helium Cooled Pebble Bed (HCPB) breeder blanket. Blankets with Be12Ti neutron multiplier were found to produce less tritium but higher energy multiplication when compared to blankets with Be neutron multiplier