Heavy rainfall episode over Mumbai on 26 July 2005: Assessment of NWP guidance

In the present work a qualitative assessment of guidance from NCMRWF operational global and regional Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) systems in the episode of unprecedented rainfall over Mumbai has been attempted. This also consolidates and examines the predictions that were provided by some of the leading global operational centres. Some hindcast runs were also made with different initial conditions. It reveals that the use of very high resolution global and regional models with advanced data assimilation techniques (4D Var), that optimally utilizes information from satellite observations, could significantly enhance the usefulness of NWP guidance

Skills of different mesoscale models over Indian region during monsoon season: Forecast errors

Performance of four mesoscale models namely, the MM5, ETA, RSM and WRF, run at NCMRWF for short range weather forecasting has been examined during monsoon-2006. Evaluation is carried out based upon comparisons between observations and day-1 and day-3 forecasts of wind, temperature, speci.c humidity, geopotential height, rainfall, systematic errors, root mean square errors and specific events like the monsoon depressions. It is very difficult to address the question of which model performs best over the Indian region? An honest answer is 'none'. Perhaps an ensemble approach would be the best. However, if we must make a final verdict, it can be stated that in general, (i) the WRF is able to produce best All India rainfall prediction compared to observations in the day-1 forecast and, the MM5 is able to produce best All India rainfall forecasts in day-3, but ETA and RSM are able to depict the best distribution of rainfall maxima along the west coast of India, (ii) the MM5 is able to produce least RMSE of wind and geopotential fields at most of the time, and (iii) the RSM is able to produce least errors in the day-1 forecasts of the tracks, while the ETA model produces least errors in the day-3 forecasts

PathCase-SB architecture and database design

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Integration of metabolic pathways resources and regulatory metabolic network models, and deploying new tools on the integrated platform can help perform more effective and more efficient systems biology research on understanding the regulation in metabolic networks. Therefore, the tasks of (a) integrating under a single database environment regulatory metabolic networks and existing models, and (b) building tools to help with modeling and analysis are desirable and intellectually challenging computational tasks.</p> <p>Description</p> <p>PathCase Systems Biology (PathCase-SB) is built and released. The PathCase-SB database provides data and API for multiple user interfaces and software tools. The current PathCase-SB system provides a database-enabled framework and web-based computational tools towards facilitating the development of kinetic models for biological systems. PathCase-SB aims to integrate data of selected biological data sources on the web (currently, BioModels database and KEGG), and to provide more powerful and/or new capabilities via the new web-based integrative framework. This paper describes architecture and database design issues encountered in PathCase-SB's design and implementation, and presents the current design of PathCase-SB's architecture and database.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>PathCase-SB architecture and database provide a highly extensible and scalable environment with easy and fast (real-time) access to the data in the database. PathCase-SB itself is already being used by researchers across the world.</p

Isotopic variation of parity violation in atomic ytterbium

We report on measurements of atomic parity violation, made on a chain of ytterbium isotopes with mass numbers A=170, 172, 174, and 176. In the experiment, we optically excite the 6s2 1S0 -> 5d6s 3D1 transition in a region of crossed electric and magnetic fields, and observe the interference between the Stark- and weak-interaction-induced transition amplitudes, by making field reversals that change the handedness of the coordinate system. This allows us to determine the ratio of the weak-interaction-induced electric-dipole (E1) transition moment and the Stark-induced E1 moment. Our measurements, which are at the 0.5% level of accuracy for three of the four isotopes measured, allow a definitive observation of the isotopic variation of the weak-interaction effects in an atom, which is found to be consistent with the prediction of the Standard Model. In addition, our measurements provide information about an additional Z' boson.Comment: 19 pages, 4 figures, 2 table

Modes of Foreign Entry under Asymmetric Information about Potential Technology Spillovers

This paper studies the effect of technology spillovers on the entry decision of a multinational enterprise into a foreign market. Two alternative entry modes for a foreign direct investment are considered: Greenfield investment versus acquisition. We find that with quantity competition a spillover makes acquisitions less attractive, while with price competition acquisitions become more attractive. Asymmetric information about potential spillovers always reduces the number of acquisitions independently of whether the host country or the entrant has private information. Interestingly, we find that asymmetric information always hurts the entrant, while it sometimes is in favor of the host country

Multiplexed, High Density Electrophysiology with Nanofabricated Neural Probes

Extracellular electrode arrays can reveal the neuronal network correlates of behavior with single-cell, single-spike, and sub-millisecond resolution. However, implantable electrodes are inherently invasive, and efforts to scale up the number and density of recording sites must compromise on device size in order to connect the electrodes. Here, we report on silicon-based neural probes employing nanofabricated, high-density electrical leads. Furthermore, we address the challenge of reading out multichannel data with an application-specific integrated circuit (ASIC) performing signal amplification, band-pass filtering, and multiplexing functions. We demonstrate high spatial resolution extracellular measurements with a fully integrated, low noise 64-channel system weighing just 330 mg. The on-chip multiplexers make possible recordings with substantially fewer external wires than the number of input channels. By combining nanofabricated probes with ASICs we have implemented a system for performing large-scale, high-density electrophysiology in small, freely behaving animals that is both minimally invasive and highly scalable

Topology optimisation of lattice telecommunication tower and performance-based design considering wind and ice loads

With increasing demand of infrastructure to support power transmission and telecommunication systems, the need of erecting more towers has also been rising significantly. For many years, these towers were designed by using a conservative approach and the opportunities lying in the design optimisation of the towers were not leveraged. This paper presents the application of structural topology optimisation to lattice self-supported telecommunication towers in developing an improved solution in terms of weight-to-stiffness ratio. 2D and 3D topology optimisation studies were performed with highly optimised bracing systems reducing the amount of steel material used, thus its carbon footprint. The new exoskeleton structure is representing a lattice tower composed of ‘high-waisted’ bracing type and elliptical hollow sections (EHS). Comparative modal analyses demonstrated the structural performance of the optimised tower models. In addition, a research-led design was carried out for optimising the geometric cross-sectional properties of the optimised lattice tower subjected to quasi-static analysis followed by regression analysis. The cross-sectional parameters were progressively changed; explicitly the diameter and thickness of the members. The performance-based analysis and design of a topologically optimised lattice tower present alternatives to onerous approaches such as wind tunnel testing or finite element modelling. The results were further analysed to understand their viability in different loading design cases and the effect of cross-sections. Conclusions highlighted the benefits gained by introducing the structural topology optimisation process in the design of slender support structures

Modeling emergency department visit patterns for infectious disease complaints: results and application to disease surveillance

BACKGROUND: Concern over bio-terrorism has led to recognition that traditional public health surveillance for specific conditions is unlikely to provide timely indication of some disease outbreaks, either naturally occurring or induced by a bioweapon. In non-traditional surveillance, the use of health care resources are monitored in "near real" time for the first signs of an outbreak, such as increases in emergency department (ED) visits for respiratory, gastrointestinal or neurological chief complaints (CC). METHODS: We collected ED CCs from 2/1/94 – 5/31/02 as a training set. A first-order model was developed for each of seven CC categories by accounting for long-term, day-of-week, and seasonal effects. We assessed predictive performance on subsequent data from 6/1/02 – 5/31/03, compared CC counts to predictions and confidence limits, and identified anomalies (simulated and real). RESULTS: Each CC category exhibited significant day-of-week differences. For most categories, counts peaked on Monday. There were seasonal cycles in both respiratory and undifferentiated infection complaints and the season-to-season variability in peak date was summarized using a hierarchical model. For example, the average peak date for respiratory complaints was January 22, with a season-to-season standard deviation of 12 days. This season-to-season variation makes it challenging to predict respiratory CCs so we focused our effort and discussion on prediction performance for this difficult category. Total ED visits increased over the study period by 4%, but respiratory complaints decreased by roughly 20%, illustrating that long-term averages in the data set need not reflect future behavior in data subsets. CONCLUSION: We found that ED CCs provided timely indicators for outbreaks. Our approach led to successful identification of a respiratory outbreak one-to-two weeks in advance of reports from the state-wide sentinel flu surveillance and of a reported increase in positive laboratory test results