46 research outputs found
Evaluation of appendicitis risk prediction models in adults with suspected appendicitis
Background
Appendicitis is the most common general surgical emergency worldwide, but its diagnosis remains challenging. The aim of this study was to determine whether existing risk prediction models can reliably identify patients presenting to hospital in the UK with acute right iliac fossa (RIF) pain who are at low risk of appendicitis.
Methods
A systematic search was completed to identify all existing appendicitis risk prediction models. Models were validated using UK data from an international prospective cohort study that captured consecutive patients aged 16–45 years presenting to hospital with acute RIF in March to June 2017. The main outcome was best achievable model specificity (proportion of patients who did not have appendicitis correctly classified as low risk) whilst maintaining a failure rate below 5 per cent (proportion of patients identified as low risk who actually had appendicitis).
Results
Some 5345 patients across 154 UK hospitals were identified, of which two‐thirds (3613 of 5345, 67·6 per cent) were women. Women were more than twice as likely to undergo surgery with removal of a histologically normal appendix (272 of 964, 28·2 per cent) than men (120 of 993, 12·1 per cent) (relative risk 2·33, 95 per cent c.i. 1·92 to 2·84; P < 0·001). Of 15 validated risk prediction models, the Adult Appendicitis Score performed best (cut‐off score 8 or less, specificity 63·1 per cent, failure rate 3·7 per cent). The Appendicitis Inflammatory Response Score performed best for men (cut‐off score 2 or less, specificity 24·7 per cent, failure rate 2·4 per cent).
Conclusion
Women in the UK had a disproportionate risk of admission without surgical intervention and had high rates of normal appendicectomy. Risk prediction models to support shared decision‐making by identifying adults in the UK at low risk of appendicitis were identified
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Harnessing Speech-Derived Digital Biomarkers to Detect and Quantify Cognitive Decline Severity in Older Adults
Introduction: Current cognitive assessments suffer from floor/ceiling and practice effects, poor psychometric performance in mild cases, and repeated assessment effects. This study explores the use of digital speech analysis as an alternative tool for determining cognitive impairment. The study specifically focuses on identifying the digital speech biomarkers associated with cognitive impairment and its severity. Methods: We recruited older adults with varying cognitive health. Their speech data, recorded via a wearable microphone during the reading aloud of a standard passage, were processed to derive digital biomarkers such as timing, pitch, and loudness. Cohen's d effect size highlighted group differences, and correlations were drawn to the Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA). A stepwise approach using a Random Forest model was implemented to distinguish cognitive states using speech data and predict MoCA scores based on highly correlated features. Results: The study comprised 59 participants, with 36 demonstrating cognitive impairment and 23 serving as cognitively intact controls. Among all assessed parameters, similarity, as determined by Dynamic Time Warping (DTW), exhibited the most substantial positive correlation (rho = 0.529, p < 0.001), while timing parameters, specifically the ratio of extra words, revealed the strongest negative correlation (rho = -0.441, p < 0.001) with MoCA scores. Optimal discriminative performance was achieved with a combination of four speech parameters: total pause time, speech-to-pause ratio, similarity via DTW, and intelligibility via DTW. Precision and balanced accuracy scores were found to be 88.1 ± 1.2% and 76.3 ± 1.3%, respectively. Discussion: Our research proposes that reading-derived speech data facilitates the differentiation between cognitively impaired individuals and cognitively intact, age-matched older adults. Specifically, parameters based on timing and similarity within speech data provide an effective gauge of cognitive impairment severity. These results suggest speech analysis as a viable digital biomarker for early detection and monitoring of cognitive impairment, offering novel approaches in dementia care.12 month embargo; first published 12 January 2024This item from the UA Faculty Publications collection is made available by the University of Arizona with support from the University of Arizona Libraries. If you have questions, please contact us at [email protected]