Economic Impacts of Irrigation-Constrained Agriculture in the Lower Po Basin

Climate change, increasing demand for water, higher environmental standards and inelastic water supply suggest that future drought response in Southern Europe would require more efficient management of water use. In this context, there is a pressing need for a better understanding of the economic impacts of irrigation restrictions, including their microeconomic and broad economic repercussions. This paper connects a multi-attribute Revealed Preference Model working at an agricultural district level with a regionally calibrated supply and use model that combines nonlinear programming and input-output modeling techniques to address water allocation issues. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first time these two modeling approaches are combined in this fashion. Methods are illustrated with an application to the Lower Po River Basin (LPRB) in the Emilia Romagna Region, Italy. Results show that irrigation restrictions generate rising incremental losses in the agricultural districts of the LPRB, which are amplified through negative inter-sectorial feedbacks at a regional level. Contraction of production in Emilia Romagna results in an excess demand situation that propels the production of substitute goods elsewhere in Italy, partially but not fully compensating economic losses in the region. Methods and results offer a basis for assessing tradeoffs in irrigation restrictions and related adaptations, for climate change included

Global supply-chain effects of COVID-19 control measures

Countries have sought to stop the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) by severely restricting travel and in-person commercial activities. Here, we analyse the supply-chain effects of a set of idealized lockdown scenarios, using the latest global trade modelling framework. We find that supply-chain losses that are related to initial COVID-19 lockdowns are largely dependent on the number of countries imposing restrictions and that losses are more sensitive to the duration of a lockdown than its strictness. However, a longer containment that can eradicate the disease imposes a smaller loss than shorter ones. Earlier, stricter and shorter lockdowns can minimize overall losses. A ‘go-slow’ approach to lifting restrictions may reduce overall damages if it avoids the need for further lockdowns. Regardless of the strategy, the complexity of global supply chains will magnify losses beyond the direct effects of COVID-19. Thus, pandemic control is a public good that requires collective efforts and support to lower-capacity countries

Sandy coastlines under threat of erosion

Sandy beaches occupy more than one-third of the global coastline(1) and have high socioeconomic value related to recreation, tourism and ecosystem services(2). Beaches are the interface between land and ocean, providing coastal protection from marine storms and cyclones(3). However the presence of sandy beaches cannot be taken for granted, as they are under constant change, driven by meteorological(4,5), geological(6) and anthropogenic factors(1,7). A substantial proportion of the world's sandy coastline is already eroding(1,7), a situation that could be exacerbated by climate change(8,9). Here, we show that ambient trends in shoreline dynamics, combined with coastal recession driven by sea level rise, could result in the near extinction of almost half of the world's sandy beaches by the end of the century. Moderate GHG emission mitigation could prevent 40% of shoreline retreat. Projected shoreline dynamics are dominated by sea level rise for the majority of sandy beaches, but in certain regions the erosive trend is counteracted by accretive ambient shoreline changes; for example, in the Amazon, East and Southeast Asia and the north tropical Pacific. A substantial proportion of the threatened sandy shorelines are in densely populated areas, underlining the need for the design and implementation of effective adaptive measures. Erosion is a major problem facing sandy beaches that will probably worsen with climate change and sea-level rise. Half the world's beaches, many of which are in densely populated areas, could disappear by the end of the century under current trends; mitigation could lessen retreat by 40%.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

The undebated issue of justice: silent discourses in Dutch flood risk management

Flood risk for all types of flooding is projected to increase based on climate change projections and increases in damage potential. These challenges are likely to aggravate issues of justice in flood risk management (henceforth FRM). Based on a discursive-institutionalist perspective, this paper explores justice in Dutch FRM: how do institutions allocate the responsibilities and costs for FRM for different types of flooding? What are the underlying conceptions of justice? What are the future challenges with regard to climate change? The research revealed that a dichotomy is visible in the Dutch approach to FRM: despite an abundance of rules, regulations and resources spent, flood risk or its management, are only marginally discussed in terms of justice. Despite that the current institutional arrangement has material outcomes that treat particular groups of citizens differently, depending on the type of flooding they are prone to, area they live in (unembanked/embanked) or category of user (e.g. household, industry, farmer). The paper argues that the debate on justice will (re)emerge, since the differences in distributional outcomes are likely to become increasingly uneven as a result of increasing flood risk. The Netherlands should be prepared for this debate by generating the relevant facts and figures. An inclusive debate on the distribution of burdens of FRM could contribute to more effective and legitimate FRM

A Multiregional Impact Assessment Model for disaster analysis

This paper presents a recursive dynamic multiregional supply-use model, combining linear programming and input–output (I–O) modeling to assess the economy-wide consequences of a natural disaster on a pan-European scale. It is a supply-use model which considers production technologies and allows for supply side constraints. The model has been illustrated for three floods in Rotterdam, The Netherlands. Results show that most of the neighboring regions gain from the flood due to increased demand for reconstruction and production capacity constraints in the affected region. Regions located further away or neighboring regions without a direct export link to the affected region mostly suffered small losses. These losses are due to the costs of increased inefficiencies in the production process that have to be paid for by all (indirectly) consuming regions. In the end, the floods cause regionally differentiated welfare effects

Port disruptions due to natural disasters: Insights into port and logistics resilience

Ports are located in low-lying coastal and riverine areas making them prone to the physical impacts of natural disasters. The consequential disruptions can potentially propagate through supply chains, resulting in widespread economic losses. Previous studies to quantify the risks of port disruptions have adopted various modelling assumptions about the resilience of individual ports and marine network logistics. However, limited empirical evidence is available to validate these modelling assumptions or to provide deeper understanding of the ways in which operations are adapted during and after disruptions. Here, we use vessel tracking data to analyse past port disruptions due to natural disasters, evaluating 141 incidences of disruptions across 74 ports and 27 disasters. Results show a median disruption duration of six days with a 95th percentile of 22.2 days. All analysed events show multiple ports being affected simultaneously, challenging some of the studies that only focus on single port disruptions. Moreover, we find that the duration of the disruption scales with the severity of the event, with an increment of 1.0 m storm surge or 10 m/s wind speed associated with a two day increase in disruption duration. In contrast to commonplace assumptions in model studies, substitution between ports is rarely observed during short-term disruptions. On the other hand, production recapture happens in practice in many cases of port disruptions. In short, empirical vessel tracking data provides valuable insights for future modelling studies in order to better approximate the extent of the disruption and the potential resilience of the port and maritime network

Prioritising resilience policies to reduce welfare losses from natural disasters: A case study for coastal Bangladesh

Quantified flood risk assessments focus on asset losses, neglecting longer-term impacts to household welfare via income and consumption losses. The extent of welfare losses depends upon resilience – the ability to anticipate, resist, cope, recover and learn from a shock. Here, we use a novel welfare loss modelling framework and perform a high-resolution spatial analysis in coastal Bangladesh to quantify welfare losses from a tropical cyclone under present and future climatic and socio-economic conditions. We further test various adaptation options that are intended to enhance resilience. Results show that poor households experience, on average, 7% of the asset losses, but 42% of the welfare losses. Combining dike heightening, post-disaster support and stronger housing can reduce welfare losses by up to 70%, and foster sustainable development by benefitting the poor, increasing resilience and demonstrating robustness under socio-economic and climatic uncertainties. Thus, a welfare-orientated perspective helps to identify adaptation options that enhance resilience and leave no-one behind

Moving flood risk modelling forwards

Floods are one of the most devastating disasters and their intensity and severity is expected to increase in the future. New research shows how regional floods can cause global impacts through propagation within the global trade and supply network