Assessing anti-rabies baiting – what happens on the ground?

BACKGROUND: Rabies is one of the most hazardous zoonoses in the world. Oral mass vaccination has developed into the most effective management method to control fox rabies. The future need to control the disease in large countries (i.e. Eastern Europe and the Americas) forces cost-benefit discussions. The 'Increase bait density' option refers to the usual management assumption that more baits per km(2 )could compensate for high fox abundance and override the imperfect supply of bait pieces to the individual fox. METHODS: We use a spatial simulation, which combines explicitly fox space use (tessellation polygons) and aeroplane flight lines (straight lines). The number of baits actually falling into each polygon is measured. The manager's strategic options are converted into changes of the resulting bait distribution on the ground. The comparison enables the rating of the options with respect to the management aim (i.e. accessibility of baits). RESULTS: Above 5% (approx. 10%) of all fox groups without any bait (at most 5 baits) relate to the baiting strategy applied in the field (1 km spaced parallel flight lines, 20 baits per km(2 )distributed) under habitat conditions comparable to middle and western Europe (fox group home-range 1 km(2), 2.5 adults; reference strategy). Increasing the bait density on the same flight-line pattern neither reduces the number of under-baited fox group home-ranges, nor improves the management outcome and hence wastes resources. However, reducing the flight line distance provides a more even bait distribution and thus compensates for missed fox groups or extra high fox density. The reference strategy's bait density can be reduced when accounting for the missed fox groups. The management result with the proper strategy is likely the same but with reduced costs. CONCLUSION: There is no overall optimal strategy for the bait distribution in large areas. For major parts of the landscape, the reference strategy will be more competitive. In situations where set backs are attributed to non-homogeneous bait accessibility the distribution scheme has to be refined zone-based (i.e. increase of the flight line length per unit area). However, increase in bait density above the reference strategy appears inappropriate at least for non-urban abundance conditions of the red fox

Physics at a future neutrino factory and super-beam facility

The conclusions of the Physics Working Group of the International Scoping Study of a future Neutrino Factory and super-beam facility (the ISS) are presented. The ISS was carried out by the international community between NuFact05, (the 7th International Workshop on Neutrino Factories and Super-beams, Laboratori Nazionali di Frascati, Rome, 21-26 June 2005) and NuFact06 (Ivine, CA, 24-30 August 2006). The physics case for an extensive experimental programme to understand the properties of the neutrino is presented and the role of high-precision measurements of neutrino oscillations within this programme is discussed in detail. The performance of second-generation super-beam experiments, beta-beam facilities and the Neutrino Factory are evaluated and a quantitative comparison of the discovery potential of the three classes of facility is presented. High-precision studies of the properties of the muon are complementary to the study of neutrino oscillations. The Neutrino Factory has the potential to provide extremely intense muon beams and the physics potential of such beams is discussed in the final section of the report