The State of Self-Organized Criticality of the Sun During the Last Three Solar Cycles. II. Theoretical Model

The observed powerlaw distributions of solar flare parameters can be interpreted in terms of a nonlinear dissipative system in the state of self-organized criticality (SOC). We present a universal analytical model of a SOC process that is governed by three conditions: (i) a multiplicative or exponential growth phase, (ii) a randomly interrupted termination of the growth phase, and (iii) a linear decay phase. This basic concept approximately reproduces the observed frequency distributions. We generalize it to a randomized exponential-growth model, which includes also a (log-normal) distribution of threshold energies before the instability starts, as well as randomized decay times, which can reproduce both the observed occurrence frequency distributions and the scatter of correlated parametyers more realistically. With this analytical model we can efficiently perform Monte-Carlo simulations of frequency distributions and parameter correlations of SOC processes, which are simpler and faster than the iterative simulations of cellular automaton models. Solar cycle modulations of the powerlaw slopes of flare frequency distributions can be used to diagnose the thresholds and growth rates of magnetic instabilities responsible for solar flares.Comment: Part II of Paper I: The State of Self-Organized Criticality of the Sun During the Last Three Solar Cycles. I. Observation

The State of Self-Organized Criticality of the Sun During the Last 3 Solar Cycles. I. Observations

We analyze the occurrence frequency distributions of peak fluxes $P$, total fluxes $E$, and durations $T$ of solar flares over the last three solar cycles (during 1980--2010) from hard X-ray data of HXRBS/SMM, BATSE/CGRO, and RHESSI. From the synthesized data we find powerlaw slopes with mean values of $\alpha_P=1.72\pm0.08$ for the peak flux, $\alpha_E=1.60\pm0.14$ for the total flux, and $\alpha_T=1.98\pm0.35$ for flare durations. We find a systematic anti-correlation of the powerlaw slope of peak fluxes as a function of the solar cycle, varying with an approximate sinusoidal variation $\alpha_P(t)=\alpha_0+\Delta \alpha \cos{[2\pi (t-t_0)/T_{cycle}]}$, with a mean of $\alpha_0=1.73$, a variation of $\Delta \alpha =0.14$, a solar cycle period $T_{cycle}=12.6$ yrs, and a cycle minimum time $t_0=1984.1$. The powerlaw slope is flattest during the maximum of a solar cycle, which indicates a higher magnetic complexity of the solar corona that leads to an overproportional rate of powerful flares.Comment: subm. to Solar Physic

Recent Advances in Understanding Particle Acceleration Processes in Solar Flares

We review basic theoretical concepts in particle acceleration, with particular emphasis on processes likely to occur in regions of magnetic reconnection. Several new developments are discussed, including detailed studies of reconnection in three-dimensional magnetic field configurations (e.g., current sheets, collapsing traps, separatrix regions) and stochastic acceleration in a turbulent environment. Fluid, test-particle, and particle-in-cell approaches are used and results compared. While these studies show considerable promise in accounting for the various observational manifestations of solar flares, they are limited by a number of factors, mostly relating to available computational power. Not the least of these issues is the need to explicitly incorporate the electrodynamic feedback of the accelerated particles themselves on the environment in which they are accelerated. A brief prognosis for future advancement is offered.Comment: This is a chapter in a monograph on the physics of solar flares, inspired by RHESSI observations. The individual articles are to appear in Space Science Reviews (2011

Microflares and the Statistics of X-ray Flares

This review surveys the statistics of solar X-ray flares, emphasising the new views that RHESSI has given us of the weaker events (the microflares). The new data reveal that these microflares strongly resemble more energetic events in most respects; they occur solely within active regions and exhibit high-temperature/nonthermal emissions in approximately the same proportion as major events. We discuss the distributions of flare parameters (e.g., peak flux) and how these parameters correlate, for instance via the Neupert effect. We also highlight the systematic biases involved in intercomparing data representing many decades of event magnitude. The intermittency of the flare/microflare occurrence, both in space and in time, argues that these discrete events do not explain general coronal heating, either in active regions or in the quiet Sun.Comment: To be published in Space Science Reviews (2011

25 Years of Self-organized Criticality: Concepts and Controversies

Introduced by the late Per Bak and his colleagues, self-organized criticality (SOC) has been one of the most stimulating concepts to come out of statistical mechanics and condensed matter theory in the last few decades, and has played a significant role in the development of complexity science. SOC, and more generally fractals and power laws, have attracted much comment, ranging from the very positive to the polemical. The other papers (Aschwanden et al. in Space Sci. Rev., 2014, this issue; McAteer et al. in Space Sci. Rev., 2015, this issue; Sharma et al. in Space Sci. Rev. 2015, in preparation) in this special issue showcase the considerable body of observations in solar, magnetospheric and fusion plasma inspired by the SOC idea, and expose the fertile role the new paradigm has played in approaches to modeling and understanding multiscale plasma instabilities. This very broad impact, and the necessary process of adapting a scientific hypothesis to the conditions of a given physical system, has meant that SOC as studied in these fields has sometimes differed significantly from the definition originally given by its creators. In Bak’s own field of theoretical physics there are significant observational and theoretical open questions, even 25 years on (Pruessner 2012). One aim of the present review is to address the dichotomy between the great reception SOC has received in some areas, and its shortcomings, as they became manifest in the controversies it triggered. Our article tries to clear up what we think are misunderstandings of SOC in fields more remote from its origins in statistical mechanics, condensed matter and dynamical systems by revisiting Bak, Tang and Wiesenfeld’s original papers

Tocilizumab in patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19 (RECOVERY): a randomised, controlled, open-label, platform trial

Background: In this study, we aimed to evaluate the effects of tocilizumab in adult patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19 with both hypoxia and systemic inflammation. Methods: This randomised, controlled, open-label, platform trial (Randomised Evaluation of COVID-19 Therapy [RECOVERY]), is assessing several possible treatments in patients hospitalised with COVID-19 in the UK. Those trial participants with hypoxia (oxygen saturation <92% on air or requiring oxygen therapy) and evidence of systemic inflammation (C-reactive protein ≥75 mg/L) were eligible for random assignment in a 1:1 ratio to usual standard of care alone versus usual standard of care plus tocilizumab at a dose of 400 mg–800 mg (depending on weight) given intravenously. A second dose could be given 12–24 h later if the patient's condition had not improved. The primary outcome was 28-day mortality, assessed in the intention-to-treat population. The trial is registered with ISRCTN (50189673) and ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT04381936). Findings: Between April 23, 2020, and Jan 24, 2021, 4116 adults of 21 550 patients enrolled into the RECOVERY trial were included in the assessment of tocilizumab, including 3385 (82%) patients receiving systemic corticosteroids. Overall, 621 (31%) of the 2022 patients allocated tocilizumab and 729 (35%) of the 2094 patients allocated to usual care died within 28 days (rate ratio 0·85; 95% CI 0·76–0·94; p=0·0028). Consistent results were seen in all prespecified subgroups of patients, including those receiving systemic corticosteroids. Patients allocated to tocilizumab were more likely to be discharged from hospital within 28 days (57% vs 50%; rate ratio 1·22; 1·12–1·33; p<0·0001). Among those not receiving invasive mechanical ventilation at baseline, patients allocated tocilizumab were less likely to reach the composite endpoint of invasive mechanical ventilation or death (35% vs 42%; risk ratio 0·84; 95% CI 0·77–0·92; p<0·0001). Interpretation: In hospitalised COVID-19 patients with hypoxia and systemic inflammation, tocilizumab improved survival and other clinical outcomes. These benefits were seen regardless of the amount of respiratory support and were additional to the benefits of systemic corticosteroids. Funding: UK Research and Innovation (Medical Research Council) and National Institute of Health Research

Convalescent plasma in patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19 (RECOVERY): a randomised controlled, open-label, platform trial

Background: Many patients with COVID-19 have been treated with plasma containing anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. We aimed to evaluate the safety and efficacy of convalescent plasma therapy in patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19. Methods: This randomised, controlled, open-label, platform trial (Randomised Evaluation of COVID-19 Therapy [RECOVERY]) is assessing several possible treatments in patients hospitalised with COVID-19 in the UK. The trial is underway at 177 NHS hospitals from across the UK. Eligible and consenting patients were randomly assigned (1:1) to receive either usual care alone (usual care group) or usual care plus high-titre convalescent plasma (convalescent plasma group). The primary outcome was 28-day mortality, analysed on an intention-to-treat basis. The trial is registered with ISRCTN, 50189673, and ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04381936. Findings: Between May 28, 2020, and Jan 15, 2021, 11558 (71%) of 16287 patients enrolled in RECOVERY were eligible to receive convalescent plasma and were assigned to either the convalescent plasma group or the usual care group. There was no significant difference in 28-day mortality between the two groups: 1399 (24%) of 5795 patients in the convalescent plasma group and 1408 (24%) of 5763 patients in the usual care group died within 28 days (rate ratio 1·00, 95% CI 0·93–1·07; p=0·95). The 28-day mortality rate ratio was similar in all prespecified subgroups of patients, including in those patients without detectable SARS-CoV-2 antibodies at randomisation. Allocation to convalescent plasma had no significant effect on the proportion of patients discharged from hospital within 28 days (3832 [66%] patients in the convalescent plasma group vs 3822 [66%] patients in the usual care group; rate ratio 0·99, 95% CI 0·94–1·03; p=0·57). Among those not on invasive mechanical ventilation at randomisation, there was no significant difference in the proportion of patients meeting the composite endpoint of progression to invasive mechanical ventilation or death (1568 [29%] of 5493 patients in the convalescent plasma group vs 1568 [29%] of 5448 patients in the usual care group; rate ratio 0·99, 95% CI 0·93–1·05; p=0·79). Interpretation: In patients hospitalised with COVID-19, high-titre convalescent plasma did not improve survival or other prespecified clinical outcomes. Funding: UK Research and Innovation (Medical Research Council) and National Institute of Health Research

Software performance of the ATLAS track reconstruction for LHC run 3

Charged particle reconstruction in the presence of many simultaneous proton–proton (pp) collisions in the LHC is a challenging task for the ATLAS experiment’s reconstruction software due to the combinatorial complexity. This paper describes the major changes made to adapt the software to reconstruct high-activity collisions with an average of 50 or more simultaneous pp interactions per bunch crossing (pileup) promptly using the available computing resources. The performance of the key components of the track reconstruction chain and its dependence on pile-up are evaluated, and the improvement achieved compared to the previous software version is quantified. For events with an average of 60 pp collisions per bunch crossing, the updated track reconstruction is twice as fast as the previous version, without significant reduction in reconstruction efficiency and while reducing the rate of combinatorial fake tracks by more than a factor two

Search for heavy Majorana or Dirac neutrinos and right-handed W gauge bosons in final states with charged leptons and jets in pp collisions at √s = 13 TeV with the ATLAS detector

A search for heavy right-handed Majorana or Dirac neutrinos NR and heavy right-handed gauge bosons WR is performed in events with energetic electrons or muons, with the same or opposite electric charge, and energetic jets. The search is carried out separately for topologies of clearly separated final-state products (“resolved” channel) and topologies with boosted final states with hadronic and/or leptonic products partially overlapping and reconstructed as a large-radius jet (“boosted” channel). The events are selected from pp collision data at the LHC with an integrated luminosity of 139 fb−1 collected by the ATLAS detector at √s = 13 TeV. No significant deviations from the Standard Model predictions are observed. The results are interpreted within the theoretical framework of a left-right symmetric model, and lower limits are set on masses in the heavy righthanded WR boson and NR plane. The excluded region extends to about m(WR) = 6.4 TeV for both Majorana and Dirac NR neutrinos at m(NR) < 1 TeV. NR with masses of less than 3.5 (3.6) TeV are excluded in the electron (muon) channel at m(WR) = 4.8 TeV for the Majorana neutrinos, and limits of m(NR) up to 3.6 TeV for m(WR) = 5.2 (5.0) TeV in the electron (muon) channel are set for the Dirac neutrinos. These constitute the most stringent exclusion limits to date for the model considered

Observation of four-top-quark production in the multilepton final state with the ATLAS detector

This paper presents the observation of four-top-quark (tt¯tt¯) production in proton-proton collisions at the LHC. The analysis is performed using an integrated luminosity of 140 fb−1 at a centre-of-mass energy of 13 TeV collected using the ATLAS detector. Events containing two leptons with the same electric charge or at least three leptons (electrons or muons) are selected. Event kinematics are used to separate signal from background through a multivariate discriminant, and dedicated control regions are used to constrain the dominant backgrounds. The observed (expected) significance of the measured tt¯tt¯ signal with respect to the standard model (SM) background-only hypothesis is 6.1 (4.3) standard deviations. The tt¯tt¯ production cross section is measured to be 22.5+6.6−5.5 fb, consistent with the SM prediction of 12.0±2.4 fb within 1.8 standard deviations. Data are also used to set limits on the three-top-quark production cross section, being an irreducible background not measured previously, and to constrain the top-Higgs Yukawa coupling and effective field theory operator coefficients that affect tt¯tt¯ production