KKF-Model Platform Coupling : summary report KKF01b

Nederland bereidt zich voor op een sneller stijgende zeespiegel en een veranderend klimaat. Hiervoor is het Deltaprogramma gestart. Dit deltaprogramma voorziet een serie beslissingen die grote gevolgen zullen hebben voor het beheer van het water in Nederland. Om deze beslissingen zorgvuldig te nemen is informatie nodig over hoe het klimaat en de stijgende zeespiegel dit waterbeheer zullen beïnvloeden. De modellen die de gevolgen van klimaatverandering berekenen zullen daarom met dezelfde klimaat forcering en gekoppeld aan elkaar moeten worden gebruikt. In dit onderzoek is gekeken naar het linken van hydrologische en hydrodynamische modellen – en daaraan gekoppelde modellen die de ontwikkelingen in natuur en landgebruik modelleren -- die het gebied van de Alpen tot en met de Noordzee inclusief Nederland beschrijven

Василь Васильович Тарновський: духовні витоки українського патріотизму та благодійності

Context: Climate change can directly affect habitats within ecological networks, but may also have indirect effects on network quality by inducing land use change. The relative impact of indirect effects of climate change on the quality of ecological networks currently remains largely unknown. Objectives: The objective of this study was to determine the relative impact of direct and indirect effects of climate change on a network of breeding habitat of four meadow bird species (Black-tailed godwit, Common redshank, Eurasian oystercatcher and Northern lapwing) in the Netherlands. Methods: Habitat models were developed that link meadow bird breeding densities to three habitat characteristics that are sensitive to environmental change (landscape openness, land use and groundwater level). These models were used to assess the impact of scenarios of landscape change with and without climate change on meadow bird breeding habitat quality for a case study area in the peat meadow district of the Netherlands. Results: All scenarios led to significantly reduced habitat quality for all species, mainly as a result of conversion of grassland to bioenergy crops, which reduces landscape openness. Direct effects of climate change on habitat quality were largely absent, indicating that especially human adaptation to climate change rather than direct effects of climate change was decisive for the degradation of ecological network quality for breeding meadow birds. Conclusions: We conclude that scenario studies exploring impacts of climate change on ecological networks should incorporate both land use change resulting from human responses to climate change and direct effects of climate change on landscapes

A global analysis of how human infrastructure squeezes sandy coasts

Coastal ecosystems provide vital services, including water storage, carbon sequestration, biodiversity, and coastal protection. Human disturbances, however, cause massive losses. The most direct impact is habitat destruction through infrastructure development, restricting the space available to coastal ecosystems and impeding their capacity to adapt to sea level rise by landward retreat – a phenomenon called ‘coastal squeeze’. While shoreline retreat is intensively studied, coastal congestion through infrastructure remains unquantified. Here we calculated the distance to the nearest human-made structure along 263,900 transects worldwide to show that infrastructure occurs at a 560-meter median distance from the shoreline. Moreover, we find that 18% of global sandy shores harbour less than 100 m of infrastructure-free space, and that 14-17% of the unimpacted space may drown by 2100 according to sea level rise projections. Further analyses show that population density and gross domestic product explain 40-44% of observed squeeze variation, emphasizing the intensifying pressure imposed as countries develop and populations expand. Encouragingly, we find that nature reserves relieve squeezing by 3-5 times, illustrating their effectiveness. Yet, at present only 16% of world’s sandy shores has a protected status. We therefore argue that expansion of nature reserves could be key to preserving coastal resilience to sea level rise

Naming a phantom – the quest to find the identity of Ulluchu, an unidentified ceremonial plant of the Moche culture in Northern Peru

The botanical identification of Ulluchu, an iconic fruit frequently depicted in the art of the pre-Columbian Moche culture that flourished from A.D. 100–800 on the Peruvian north coast, has eluded scientists since its documentation in ceramics in the 1930s. Moche fine-line drawings of Ulluchu normally depict seed-pods or seeds floating in the air in sacrificial scenes, associated with runners and messengers or intoxicated priests. It is a grooved, comma-shaped fruit with an enlarged calyx found mainly in fine-line scenes painted on Moche ceramics. The term first appeared without linguistic explanation in the work of pioneer Moche scholar Rafael Larco Hoyle, and the identification of the plant was seen as the largest remaining challenge in current archaebotany at the Peruvian North coast. The name Ulluchu seems to have been coined by Larco. According to his description, the name originated in the Virú River valley, and is supposedly of Mochica origin. However, there is no linguistic evidence that such a term indeed existed in the Mochica or Yunga language

A virtual water network of the Roman world

The Romans were perhaps the most impressive exponents of water resource management in preindustrial times with irrigation and virtual water trade facilitating unprecedented urbanisation and socioeconomic stability for hundreds of years in a region of highly variable climate. To understand Roman water resource management in response to urbanisation and climate variability, a Virtual Water Network of the Roman World was developed. Using this network we find that irrigation and virtual water trade increased Roman resilience to climate variability in the short term. However, urbanisation arising from virtual water trade likely pushed the Empire closer to the boundary of its water resources, led to an increase in import costs, and reduced its resilience to climate variability in the long-term. In addition to improving our understanding of Roman water resource management, our cost-distance based analysis illuminates how increases in import costs arising from climatic and population pressures are likely to be distributed in the future global virtual water network

Effects of nutrient addition and soil drainage on germination of N-fixing and non-N-fixing tropical dry forest tree species

To develop generalised predictions regarding the effects of atmospheric nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) deposition on vegetation communities, it is necessary to account for the impacts of increased nutrient availability on the early life history stages of plants. Additionally, it is important to determine if these responses (a) differ between plant functional groups and (b) are modulated by soil drainage, which may affect the persistence of added nutrients. We experimentally assessed seed germination responses (germination proportion and germination energy, i.e. time to germination) of commonly occurring N-fixing and non-N-fixing tropical dry forest tree species found in India to simulated N and P deposition in well-drained soils, as well as soils with impeded drainage. When soils were not allowed to drain, germination proportion declined with nutrient addition, while germination energy remained unchanged. Stronger declines in germination proportion were observed for N-fixing species. In free-draining soils, nutrient addition did not affect germination proportion in either functional group. However, we detected a trend of delayed germination with nutrient addition, especially in N-fixers. Our results suggest that nutrient deposition can lead to potential shifts in functional dominance and tree community composition of tropical dry forests in the long term through its effects on early life stages of trees, although the mechanisms underlying the observed germination responses remain unclear. Further, such effects are likely to be spatially variable across the geographic range in which tropical dry forests occur depending on soil drainage properties