Impact of the sea surface temperature forcing on hindcasts of Madden-Julian Oscillation events using the ECMWF model

This paper explores the sensitivity of hindcasts of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) to the use of different sea surface temperture (SST) products as lower boundary conditions in the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) atmospheric model. Three sets of monthly hindcast experiments are conducted, starting from initial conditions from the ERA interim reanalysis. First, as a reference, the atmosphere is forced by the SST used to produce ERA interim. In the second and third experiments, the SST is switched to the OSTIA (Operational Sea Surface Temperature and Sea-Ice Analysis) and the AVHRR-only (Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer) reanalyses, respectively. Tests on the temporal resolution of the SST show that monthly fields are not optimal, while weekly and daily resolutions provide similar MJO scores. When using either OSTIA or AVHRR, the propagation of the MJO is degraded and the resulting scores are lower than in the reference experiment. Further experiments show that this loss of skill cannot be attributed to either the difference in mean state or temporal variability between the SST products. Additional diagnostics show that the phase relationship between either OSTIA or AVHRR SST and the MJO convection is distorted with respect to satellite observations and the ERA interim reanalysis. This distortion is expected to impact the MJO hindcasts, leading to a relative loss of forecast skill. A realistic representation of ocean–atmosphere interactions is thus needed for MJO hindcasts, but not all SST products – though accurate for other purposes – fulfill this requirement

Machine Learning for Stochastic Parameterization: Generative Adversarial Networks in the Lorenz '96 Model

Stochastic parameterizations account for uncertainty in the representation of unresolved sub-grid processes by sampling from the distribution of possible sub-grid forcings. Some existing stochastic parameterizations utilize data-driven approaches to characterize uncertainty, but these approaches require significant structural assumptions that can limit their scalability. Machine learning models, including neural networks, are able to represent a wide range of distributions and build optimized mappings between a large number of inputs and sub-grid forcings. Recent research on machine learning parameterizations has focused only on deterministic parameterizations. In this study, we develop a stochastic parameterization using the generative adversarial network (GAN) machine learning framework. The GAN stochastic parameterization is trained and evaluated on output from the Lorenz '96 model, which is a common baseline model for evaluating both parameterization and data assimilation techniques. We evaluate different ways of characterizing the input noise for the model and perform model runs with the GAN parameterization at weather and climate timescales. Some of the GAN configurations perform better than a baseline bespoke parameterization at both timescales, and the networks closely reproduce the spatio-temporal correlations and regimes of the Lorenz '96 system. We also find that in general those models which produce skillful forecasts are also associated with the best climate simulations.Comment: Submitted to Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems (JAMES

ERA-Interim/Land: a global land surface reanalysis data set

ERA-Interim/Land is a global land surface reanalysis data set covering the period 1979–2010. It describes the evolution of soil moisture, soil temperature and snowpack. ERA-Interim/Land is the result of a single 32-year simulation with the latest ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) land surface model driven by meteorological forcing from the ERA-Interim atmospheric reanalysis and precipitation adjustments based on monthly GPCP v2.1 (Global Precipitation Climatology Project). The horizontal resolution is about 80 km and the time frequency is 3-hourly. ERA-Interim/Land includes a number of parameterization improvements in the land surface scheme with respect to the original ERA-Interim data set, which makes it more suitable for climate studies involving land water resources. The quality of ERA-Interim/Land is assessed by comparing with ground-based and remote sensing observations. In particular, estimates of soil moisture, snow depth, surface albedo, turbulent latent and sensible fluxes, and river discharges are verified against a large number of site measurements. ERA-Interim/Land provides a global integrated and coherent estimate of soil moisture and snow water equivalent, which can also be used for the initialization of numerical weather prediction and climate models

Seasonal Tropical Cyclone Forecasting

This paper summarizes the forecast methods, outputs and skill offered by twelve agencies for seasonal tropical cyclone (TC) activity around the world. These agencies use a variety of techniques ranging from statistical models to dynamical models to predict basinwide activity and regional activity. In addition, several dynamical and hybrid statistical/dynamical models now predict TC track density as well as landfall likelihood. Realtime Atlantic seasonal hurricane forecasts have shown low skill in April, modest skill in June and good skill in August at predicting basinwide TC activity when evaluated over 2003-2018. Real-time western North Pacific seasonal TC forecasts have shown good skill by July for basinwide intense typhoon numbers and the ACE index when evaluated for 2003-2018. Both hindcasts and real-time forecasts have shown skill for other TC basins. A summary of recent research into forecasting TC activity beyond seasonal (e.g., multi-year) timescales is included. Recommendations for future areas of research are also discussed

Uncovering Networks from Genome-Wide Association Studies via Circular Genomic Permutation

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) aim to detect single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) associated with trait variation. However, due to the large number of tests, standard analysis techniques impose highly stringent significance thresholds, leaving potentially associated SNPs undetected, and much of the trait genetic variation unexplained. Pathway- and network-based methodologies applied to GWAS aim to detect associations missed by standard single-marker approaches. The complex and non-random architecture of the genome makes it a challenge to derive an appropriate testing framework for such methodologies. We developed a rapid and simple permutation approach that uses GWAS SNP association results to establish the significance of pathway associations while accounting for the linkage disequilibrium structure of SNPs and the clustering of functionally related elements in the genome. All SNPs used in the GWAS are placed in a “circular genome” according to their location. Then the complete set of SNP association P values are permuted by rotation with respect to the genomic locations of the SNPs. Once these “simulated” P values are assigned, the joint gene P values are calculated using Fisher’s combination test, and the association of pathways is tested using the hypergeometric test. The circular genomic permutation approach was applied to a human genome-wide association dataset. The data consists of 719 individuals from the ORCADES study genotyped for ∼300,000 SNPs and measured for 51 traits ranging from physical to biochemical measurements. KEGG pathways (n = 225) were used as the sets of pathways to be tested. Our results demonstrate that the circular genomic permutations provide robust association P values. The non-permuted hypergeometric analysis generates ∼1400 pathway-trait combination results with an association P value more significant than P ≤ 0.05, whereas applying circular genomic permutation reduces the number of significant results to a more credible 40% of that value. The circular permutation software (“genomicper”) is available as an R package at http://cran.r-project.org/

Enrichment of pathogenic alleles in the brittle cornea gene, ZNF469, in keratoconus

Keratoconus, a common inherited ocular disorder resulting in progressive corneal thinning, is the leading indication for corneal transplantation in the developed world. Genome-wide association studies have identified common SNPs 100 kb upstream of ZNF469 strongly associated with corneal thickness. Homozygous mutations in ZNF469 and PR domain-containing protein 5 (PRDM5) genes result in brittle cornea syndrome (BCS) Types 1 and 2, respectively. BCS is an autosomal recessive generalized connective tissue disorder associated with extreme corneal thinning and a high risk of corneal rupture. Some individuals with heterozygous PRDM5 mutations demonstrate a carrier ocular phenotype, which includes a mildly reduced corneal thickness, keratoconus and blue sclera. We hypothesized that heterozygous variants in PRDM5 and ZNF469 predispose to the development of isolated keratoconus. We found a significant enrichment of potentially pathologic heterozygous alleles in ZNF469 associated with the development of keratoconus (P = 0.00102) resulting in a relative risk of 12.0. This enrichment of rare potentially pathogenic alleles in ZNF469 in 12.5% of keratoconus patients represents a significant mutational load and highlights ZNF469 as the most significant genetic factor responsible for keratoconus identified to dat

Local exome sequences facilitate imputation of less common variants and increase power of genome wide association studies

The analysis of less common variants in genome-wide association studies promises to elucidate complex trait genetics but is hampered by low power to reliably detect association. We show that addition of population-specific exome sequence data to global reference data allows more accurate imputation, particularly of less common SNPs (minor allele frequency 1–10%) in two very different European populations. The imputation improvement corresponds to an increase in effective sample size of 28–38%, for SNPs with a minor allele frequency in the range 1–3%

Genetic Determinants of Circulating Sphingolipid Concentrations in European Populations

Sphingolipids have essential roles as structural components of cell membranes and in cell signalling, and disruption of their metabolism causes several diseases, with diverse neurological, psychiatric, and metabolic consequences. Increasingly, variants within a few of the genes that encode enzymes involved in sphingolipid metabolism are being associated with complex disease phenotypes. Direct experimental evidence supports a role of specific sphingolipid species in several common complex chronic disease processes including atherosclerotic plaque formation, myocardial infarction (MI), cardiomyopathy, pancreatic beta-cell failure, insulin resistance, and type 2 diabetes mellitus. Therefore, sphingolipids represent novel and important intermediate phenotypes for genetic analysis, yet little is known about the major genetic variants that influence their circulating levels in the general population. We performed a genome-wide association study (GWAS) between 318,237 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and levels of circulating sphingomyelin (SM), dihydrosphingomyelin (Dih-SM), ceramide (Cer), and glucosylceramide (GluCer) single lipid species (33 traits); and 43 matched metabolite ratios measured in 4,400 subjects from five diverse European populations. Associated variants (32) in five genomic regions were identified with genome-wide significant corrected p-values ranging down to 9.08 x 10(-66). The strongest associations were observed in or near 7 genes functionally involved in ceramide biosynthesis and trafficking: SPTLC3, LASS4, SGPP1, ATP10D, and FADS1-3. Variants in 3 loci (ATP10D, FADS3, and SPTLC3) associate with MI in a series of three German MI studies. An additional 70 variants across 23 candidate genes involved in sphingolipid-metabolizing pathways also demonstrate association (p = 10(-4) or less). Circulating concentrations of several key components in sphingolipid metabolism are thus under strong genetic control, and variants in these loci can be tested for a role in the development of common cardiovascular, metabolic, neurological, and psychiatric diseases

Author Correction: Cross-ancestry genome-wide association analysis of corneal thickness strengthens link between complex and Mendelian eye diseases.

Emmanuelle Souzeau, who contributed to analysis of data, was inadvertently omitted from the author list in the originally published version of this Article. This has now been corrected in both the PDF and HTML versions of the Article

Associations with photoreceptor thickness measures in the UK Biobank.

Spectral-domain OCT (SD-OCT) provides high resolution images enabling identification of individual retinal layers. We included 32,923 participants aged 40-69 years old from UK Biobank. Questionnaires, physical examination, and eye examination including SD-OCT imaging were performed. SD OCT measured photoreceptor layer thickness includes photoreceptor layer thickness: inner nuclear layer-retinal pigment epithelium (INL-RPE) and the specific sublayers of the photoreceptor: inner nuclear layer-external limiting membrane (INL-ELM); external limiting membrane-inner segment outer segment (ELM-ISOS); and inner segment outer segment-retinal pigment epithelium (ISOS-RPE). In multivariate regression models, the total average INL-RPE was observed to be thinner in older aged, females, Black ethnicity, smokers, participants with higher systolic blood pressure, more negative refractive error, lower IOPcc and lower corneal hysteresis. The overall INL-ELM, ELM-ISOS and ISOS-RPE thickness was significantly associated with sex and race. Total average of INL-ELM thickness was additionally associated with age and refractive error, while ELM-ISOS was additionally associated with age, smoking status, SBP and refractive error; and ISOS-RPE was additionally associated with smoking status, IOPcc and corneal hysteresis. Hence, we found novel associations of ethnicity, smoking, systolic blood pressure, refraction, IOPcc and corneal hysteresis with photoreceptor thickness