Adaptive Sampling of Information in Perceptual Decision-Making

In many perceptual and cognitive decision-making problems, humans sample multiple noisy information sources serially, and integrate the sampled information to make an overall decision. We derive the optimal decision procedure for two-alternative choice tasks in which the different options are sampled one at a time, sources vary in the quality of the information they provide, and the available time is fixed. To maximize accuracy, the optimal observer allocates time to sampling different information sources in proportion to their noise levels. We tested human observers in a corresponding perceptual decision-making task. Observers compared the direction of two random dot motion patterns that were triggered only when fixated. Observers allocated more time to the noisier pattern, in a manner that correlated with their sensory uncertainty about the direction of the patterns. There were several differences between the optimal observer predictions and human behaviour. These differences point to a number of other factors, beyond the quality of the currently available sources of information, that influences the sampling strategy

Effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of transmural collaborative care with consultation letter (TCCCL) and duloxetine for major depressive disorder (MDD) and (sub)chronic pain in collaboration with primary care: design of a randomized placebo-controlled multi-Centre trial: TCC:PAINDIP

__Abstract__ Background: The comorbidity of pain and depression is associated with high disease burden for patients in terms of disability, wellbeing, and use of medical care. Patients with major and minor depression often present themselves with pain to a general practitioner and recognition of depression in such cases is low, but evolving. Also, physical symptoms, including pain, in major depressive disorder, predict a poorer response to treatment. A multi-faceted, patient-tailored treatment programme, like collaborative care, is promising. However, treatment of chronic pain conditions in depressive patients has, so far, received limited attention in research. Cost effectiveness of an integrated approach of pain in depressed patients has not been studied. This article describes the aims and design of a study to evaluate effects and costs of collaborative care with the antidepressant duloxetine for patients with pain symptoms and a depressive disorder, compared to collaborative care with placebo and compared to duloxetine alone

A review of a decade of lessons from one of the world’s largest MPAs: conservation gains and key challenges

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from the publisher via the DOI in this recordtribute to global conservation targets, we review outcomes of the last decade of marine conservation research in the British Indian Ocean Territory (BIOT), one of the largest MPAs in the world. The BIOT MPA consists of the atolls of the Chagos Archipelago, interspersed with and surrounded by deep oceanic waters. Islands around the atoll rims serve as nesting grounds for sea birds. Extensive and diverse shallow and mesophotic reef habitats provide essential habitat and feeding grounds for all marine life, and the absence of local human impacts may improve recovery after coral bleaching events. Census data have shown recent increases in the abundance of sea turtles, high numbers of nesting seabirds and high fsh abundance, at least some of which is linked to the lack of recent harvesting. For example, across the archipelago the annual number of green turtle clutches (Chelonia mydas) is~20,500 and increasing and the number of seabirds is ~1 million. Animal tracking studies have shown that some taxa breed and/or forage consistently within the MPA (e.g. some reef fshes, elasmobranchs and seabirds), suggesting the MPA has the potential to provide long-term protection. In contrast, post-nesting green turtles travel up to 4000 km to distant foraging sites, so the protected beaches in the Chagos Archipelago provide a nesting sanctuary for individuals that forage across an ocean basin and several geopolitical borders. Surveys using divers and underwater video systems show high habitat diversity and abundant marine life on all trophic levels. For example, coral cover can be as high as 40–50%. Ecological studies are shedding light on how remote ecosystems function, connect to each other and respond to climate-driven stressors compared to other locations that are more locally impacted. However, important threats to this MPA have been identifed, particularly global heating events, and Illegal, Unreported and Unregulated (IUU) fshing activity, which considerably impact both reef and pelagic fshes.Bertarelli Foundatio

Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 354 diseases and injuries for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017) includes a comprehensive assessment of incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 354 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017. Previous GBD studies have shown how the decline of mortality rates from 1990 to 2016 has led to an increase in life expectancy, an ageing global population, and an expansion of the non-fatal burden of disease and injury. These studies have also shown how a substantial portion of the world's population experiences non-fatal health loss with considerable heterogeneity among different causes, locations, ages, and sexes. Ongoing objectives of the GBD study include increasing the level of estimation detail, improving analytical strategies, and increasing the amount of high-quality data. Methods: We estimated incidence and prevalence for 354 diseases and injuries and 3484 sequelae. We used an updated and extensive body of literature studies, survey data, surveillance data, inpatient admission records, outpatient visit records, and health insurance claims, and additionally used results from cause of death models to inform estimates using a total of 68 781 data sources. Newly available clinical data from India, Iran, Japan, Jordan, Nepal, China, Brazil, Norway, and Italy were incorporated, as well as updated claims data from the USA and new claims data from Taiwan (province of China) and Singapore. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, as the main method of estimation, ensuring consistency between rates of incidence, prevalence, remission, and cause of death for each condition. YLDs were estimated as the product of a prevalence estimate and a disability weight for health states of each mutually exclusive sequela, adjusted for comorbidity. We updated the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary development indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Additionally, we calculated differences between male and female YLDs to identify divergent trends across sexes. GBD 2017 complies with the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting. Findings: Globally, for females, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and haemoglobinopathies and haemolytic anaemias in both 1990 and 2017. For males, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and tuberculosis including latent tuberculosis infection in both 1990 and 2017. In terms of YLDs, low back pain, headache disorders, and dietary iron deficiency were the leading Level 3 causes of YLD counts in 1990, whereas low back pain, headache disorders, and depressive disorders were the leading causes in 2017 for both sexes combined. All-cause age-standardised YLD rates decreased by 3·9% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1–4·6) from 1990 to 2017; however, the all-age YLD rate increased by 7·2% (6·0–8·4) while the total sum of global YLDs increased from 562 million (421–723) to 853 million (642–1100). The increases for males and females were similar, with increases in all-age YLD rates of 7·9% (6·6–9·2) for males and 6·5% (5·4–7·7) for females. We found significant differences between males and females in terms of age-standardised prevalence estimates for multiple causes. The causes with the greatest relative differences between sexes in 2017 included substance use disorders (3018 cases [95% UI 2782–3252] per 100 000 in males vs s1400 [1279–1524] per 100 000 in females), transport injuries (3322 [3082–3583] vs 2336 [2154–2535]), and self-harm and interpersonal violence (3265 [2943–3630] vs 5643 [5057–6302]). Interpretation: Global all-cause age-standardised YLD rates have improved only slightly over a period spanning nearly three decades. However, the magnitude of the non-fatal disease burden has expanded globally, with increasing numbers of people who have a wide spectrum of conditions. A subset of conditions has remained globally pervasive since 1990, whereas other conditions have displayed more dynamic trends, with different ages, sexes, and geographies across the globe experiencing varying burdens and trends of health loss. This study emphasises how global improvements in premature mortality for select conditions have led to older populations with complex and potentially expensive diseases, yet also highlights global achievements in certain domains of disease and injury

PNG: Posterior distributions of the standardised effects of initial and repeated thermal stress (from multilevel Bayesian models) on the change in reef pavement following 2015–2017 marine heatwaves across depth zones: 5–10 m, 10–15 m, 15–20 m and 20–25 m at atolls: Egmont (EG), Great Chagos Bank (GCB), Peros Banhos (PB) and Salomon (SA). Points indicate median estimates and bars represent 50% and 95% credible intervals. Strong and weak evidence of change in benthic cover are interpreted when 95% (indicated by **) and 50% (indicated by *) of the intervals do not intercept zero, respectively.

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Supplementary Materials from Depth variation in benthic community response to repeated marine heatwaves on remote Central Indian Ocean reefs

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PNG: Predicted mean change in benthic groups cover following 2015–2017 marine heatwaves across depth zones: 5–10 m, 10–15 m, 15–20 m, 20–25 m at atolls: Egmont (EG), Great Chagos Bank (GCB), Peros Banhos (PB) and Salomon (SA). Predicted means were generated from posterior predictions using multilevel Bayesian models. from Depth variation in benthic community response to repeated marine heatwaves on remote Central Indian Ocean reefs

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PNG: Percentage cover of benthic groups pre (grey) and post (black) 2015–2017 marine heatwaves across depth zones at atolls: Egmont (EG), Great Chagos Bank (GCB), Peros Banhos (PB) and Salomon (SA). from Depth variation in benthic community response to repeated marine heatwaves on remote Central Indian Ocean reefs

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PNG: Monthly maximum heat stress (maxDHW - maximum degree heating weeks) at each atoll: Egmont (EG), Great Chagos Bank (GCB), Peros Banhos (PB) and Salomon (SA) during the 2015-2017 warming events. from Depth variation in benthic community response to repeated marine heatwaves on remote Central Indian Ocean reefs

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PNG: Non-metric multi-dimensional scaling plots (nMDS) of benthic groups from 16 sites in the Chagos Archipelago, showing clustering of communities in 2013/14 (pre-unfilled shapes) and 2018/19 (post-filled shapes) following the 2015–2017 marine heatwaves across a) depth zones and b) atolls: Egmont (EG), Great Chagos Bank (GCB), Peros Banhos (PB) and Salomon (SA), based on Bray-Curtis dissimilarities of square-root transformed data. Ellipses represent dispersion of pre (grey lines) and post (black lines) marine heatwaves communities from centroids at 95% confidence intervals. Vectors show benthic groups that significantly contributed to the patterns on the ordination, arrows show the direction of the gradient, and the length of the vectors are proportional to the correlations between the benthic group and the ordination.

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