Predicting the hypervelocity star population in Gaia

Hypervelocity stars (HVSs) are amongst the fastest objects in our Milky Way. These stars are predicted to come from the Galactic center (GC) and travel along unbound orbits across the Galaxy. In the coming years, the ESA satellite Gaia will provide the most complete and accurate catalogue of the Milky Way, with full astrometric parameters for more than $1$ billion stars. In this paper, we present the expected sample size and properties (mass, magnitude, spatial, velocity distributions) of HVSs in the Gaia stellar catalogue. We build three Gaia mock catalogues of HVSs anchored to current observations, exploring different ejection mechanisms and GC stellar population properties. In all cases, we predict hundreds to thousands of HVSs with precise proper motion measurements within a few tens of kpc from us. For stars with a relative error in total proper motion below $10 \%$, the mass range extends to ~$10 M_{\odot}$ but peaks at ~$1$ $M_\odot$. The majority of Gaia HVSs will therefore probe a different mass and distance range compared to the current non-Gaia sample. In addition, a subset of a few hundreds to a few thousands of HVSs with $M$ ~ $3$ $M_\odot$ will be bright enough to have a precise measurement of the three-dimensional velocity from Gaia alone. Finally, we show that Gaia will provide more precise proper motion measurements for the current sample of HVS candidates. This will help identifying their birthplace narrowing down their ejection location, and confirming or rejecting their nature as HVSs. Overall, our forecasts are extremely encouraging in terms of quantity and quality of HVS data that can be exploited to constrain both the Milky Way potential and the GC properties.Comment: 17 pages, 18 figures, accepted for publication in MNRA

Reconstructing the massive black hole cosmic history through gravitational waves

The massive black holes we observe in galaxies today are the natural end-product of a complex evolutionary path, in which black holes seeded in proto-galaxies at high redshift grow through cosmic history via a sequence of mergers and accretion episodes. Electromagnetic observations probe a small subset of the population of massive black holes (namely, those that are active or those that are very close to us), but planned space-based gravitational-wave observatories such as the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) can measure the parameters of ``electromagnetically invisible'' massive black holes out to high redshift. In this paper we introduce a Bayesian framework to analyze the information that can be gathered from a set of such measurements. Our goal is to connect a set of massive black hole binary merger observations to the underlying model of massive black hole formation. In other words, given a set of observed massive black hole coalescences, we assess what information can be extracted about the underlying massive black hole population model. For concreteness we consider ten specific models of massive black hole formation, chosen to probe four important (and largely unconstrained) aspects of the input physics used in structure formation simulations: seed formation, metallicity ``feedback'', accretion efficiency and accretion geometry. For the first time we allow for the possibility of ``model mixing'', by drawing the observed population from some combination of the ``pure'' models that have been simulated. A Bayesian analysis allows us to recover a posterior probability distribution for the ``mixing parameters'' that characterize the fractions of each model represented in the observed distribution. Our work shows that LISA has enormous potential to probe the underlying physics of structure formation.Comment: 24 pages, 16 figures, submitted to Phys. Rev.

The Local Nanohertz Gravitational-Wave Landscape From Supermassive Black Hole Binaries

Supermassive black hole binaries (SMBHBs) in the 10 million to 10 billion $M_\odot$ range form in galaxy mergers, and live in galactic nuclei with large and poorly constrained concentrations of gas and stars. There are currently no observations of merging SMBHBs--- it is in fact possible that they stall at their final parsec of separation and never merge. While LIGO has detected high frequency GWs, SMBHBs emit GWs in the nanohertz to millihertz band. This is inaccessible to ground-based interferometers, but possible with Pulsar Timing Arrays (PTAs). Using data from local galaxies in the 2 Micron All-Sky Survey, together with galaxy merger rates from Illustris, we find that there are on average $91\pm7$ sources emitting GWs in the PTA band, and $7\pm2$ binaries which will never merge. Local unresolved SMBHBs can contribute to GW background anisotropy at a level of $\sim20\%$, and if the GW background can be successfully isolated, GWs from at least one local SMBHB can be detected in 10 years.Comment: submitted to Nature Astronomy (reformatted for arXiv

Constraining properties of the black hole population using LISA

LISA should detect gravitational waves from tens to hundreds of systems containing black holes with mass in the range from 10 thousand to 10 million solar masses. Black holes in this mass range are not well constrained by current electromagnetic observations, so LISA could significantly enhance our understanding of the astrophysics of such systems. In this paper, we describe a framework for combining LISA observations to make statements about massive black hole populations. We summarise the constraints that LISA observations of extreme-mass-ratio inspirals might be able to place on the mass function of black holes in the LISA range. We also describe how LISA observations can be used to choose between different models for the hierarchical growth of structure in the early Universe. We consider four models that differ in their prescription for the initial mass distribution of black hole seeds, and in the efficiency of accretion onto the black holes. We show that with as little as 3 months of LISA data we can clearly distinguish between these models, even under relatively pessimistic assumptions about the performance of the detector and our knowledge of the gravitational waveforms.Comment: 12 pages, 3 figures, submitted to Class. Quantum Grav. for proceedings of 8th LISA Symposium; v2 minor changes for consistency with accepted versio

An integrated approach for assessing the vulnerability of World Heritage Sites to climate change impacts

One of the most difficult problem facing those responsible for managing World Heritage Sites (WHS) is climate change, as it poses continuous new challenges to the conservation of cultural heritage. Moreover, as our climate continues to change our cultural heritage will potentially be exposed to diverse pressures and potentially to risks not previously experienced. Thus, management practices will need to be tailored in order to include climate change impacts. For climate change impacts to be incorporated into preservation frameworks and management practices from government policy level down to the practice in the field, data, information and assessment methods need to be available at a scale relevant to decision-makers. This paper presents an integrated vulnerability assessment methodology and applies it to three UNESCO cultural WHS in Europe. Through this process, semi-structured interviews were conducted with academics and experts in the management and conservation of cultural heritage, as well as with the managers and coordinators of WHS. The incorporation of bottom-up knowledge in the assessment process allowed for an understanding of the sensitivity and adaptive capacity of the sites, two components of vulnerability that are not given sufficient attention and ignored, respectively, in typical top-down climate change impact assessments. In particular, the interviews elucidated the determinants that enable or constrain the capacity to adapt, i.e., resources, including technical, economic and human; information and awareness; management capacity; learning capacity; leadership; communication and collaboration; and governance; with the lack of resources most commonly mentioned as the determinant impeding adaptation. ‘Information and awareness’ and ‘management capacity’ are determinants that were not previously identified in the field of cultural heritage. The former stresses the need to disseminate the results of scientific research for their incorporation in the management of heritage sites. Vulnerability assessments such as those performed in this paper can be used to target interventions to protect and strengthen the resilience of cultural heritage to climate change impacts

On the mass radiated by coalescing black-hole binaries

We derive an analytic phenomenological expression that predicts the final mass of the black-hole remnant resulting from the merger of a generic binary system of black holes on quasi-circular orbits. Besides recovering the correct test-particle limit for extreme mass-ratio binaries, our formula reproduces well the results of all the numerical-relativity simulations published so far, both when applied at separations of a few gravitational radii, and when applied at separations of tens of thousands of gravitational radii. These validations make our formula a useful tool in a variety of contexts ranging from gravitational-wave physics to cosmology. As representative examples, we first illustrate how it can be used to decrease the phase error of the effective-one-body waveforms during the ringdown phase. Second, we show that, when combined with the recently computed self-force correction to the binding energy of nonspinning black-hole binaries, it provides an estimate of the energy emitted during the merger and ringdown. Finally, we use it to calculate the energy radiated in gravitational waves by massive black-hole binaries as a function of redshift, using different models for the seeds of the black-hole population.Comment: 9 pages (emulateapj), 4 figures. Matches version in ApJ but includes slight changes to fig 4 described in Barausse, et al ApJ 786, 76 (2014) (doi:10.1088/0004-637X/786/1/76), see also http://www2.iap.fr/users/barausse/erratum_mass_formula.pd

Probing seed black holes using future gravitational-wave detectors

Identifying the properties of the first generation of seeds of massive black holes is key to understanding the merger history and growth of galaxies. Mergers between ~100 solar mass seed black holes generate gravitational waves in the 0.1-10Hz band that lies between the sensitivity bands of existing ground-based detectors and the planned space-based gravitational wave detector, the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA). However, there are proposals for more advanced detectors that will bridge this gap, including the third generation ground-based Einstein Telescope and the space-based detector DECIGO. In this paper we demonstrate that such future detectors should be able to detect gravitational waves produced by the coalescence of the first generation of light seed black-hole binaries and provide information on the evolution of structure in that era. These observations will be complementary to those that LISA will make of subsequent mergers between more massive black holes. We compute the sensitivity of various future detectors to seed black-hole mergers, and use this to explore the number and properties of the events that each detector might see in three years of observation. For this calculation, we make use of galaxy merger trees and two different seed black hole mass distributions in order to construct the astrophysical population of events. We also consider the accuracy with which networks of future ground-based detectors will be able to measure the parameters of seed black hole mergers, in particular the luminosity distance to the source. We show that distance precisions of ~30% are achievable, which should be sufficient for us to say with confidence that the sources are at high redshift.Comment: 14 pages, 6 figures, 2 tables, accepted for proceedings of 13th GWDAW meetin

About gravitational-wave generation by a three-body system

We highlight some subtleties that affect naive implementations of quadrupolar and octupolar gravitational waveforms from numerically-integrated trajectories of three-body systems. Some of those subtleties arise from the requirement that the source be contained in its "coordinate near zone" when applying the standard PN formulae for gravitational-wave emission, and from the need to use the non-linear Einstein equations to correctly derive the quadrupole emission formula. We show that some of these subtleties were occasionally overlooked in the literature, with consequences for published results. We also provide prescriptions that lead to correct and robust predictions for the waveforms computed from numerically-integrated orbits