Probably Safe or Live

This paper presents a formal characterisation of safety and liveness properties \`a la Alpern and Schneider for fully probabilistic systems. As for the classical setting, it is established that any (probabilistic tree) property is equivalent to a conjunction of a safety and liveness property. A simple algorithm is provided to obtain such property decomposition for flat probabilistic CTL (PCTL). A safe fragment of PCTL is identified that provides a sound and complete characterisation of safety properties. For liveness properties, we provide two PCTL fragments, a sound and a complete one. We show that safety properties only have finite counterexamples, whereas liveness properties have none. We compare our characterisation for qualitative properties with the one for branching time properties by Manolios and Trefler, and present sound and complete PCTL fragments for characterising the notions of strong safety and absolute liveness coined by Sistla

Modeling Supply Networks and Business Cycles as Unstable Transport Phenomena

Physical concepts developed to describe instabilities in traffic flows can be generalized in a way that allows one to understand the well-known instability of supply chains (the so-called ``bullwhip effect''). That is, small variations in the consumption rate can cause large variations in the production rate of companies generating the requested product. Interestingly, the resulting oscillations have characteristic frequencies which are considerably lower than the variations in the consumption rate. This suggests that instabilities of supply chains may be the reason for the existence of business cycles. At the same time, we establish some link to queuing theory and between micro- and macroeconomics.Comment: For related work see http://www.helbing.or

Effects of spoilage on nitrogen and carbon stable isotopes signatures of the clam Ruditapes decussatus

Fish and seafood products are highly susceptible to post-mortem spoilage due to autolytic reactions at start, then microbiological activity and eventually oxidative reactions. Chemical and microbiological parameters are usually used to assess quality and make decisions for protecting public health, but they lack precision in defining which spoilage pathway is occurring at each moment. The objective of this work was to assess the effects of spoilage reactions on nitrogen and carbon stable isotopes in the grooved carpet shell clam, Ruditapes decussatus, and compare them to biochemical indicators of seafood deterioration, in order to better understand the relations between the different spoilage pathways during commercial storage conditions. Clams were kept in a refrigerator at 5 ºC, to simulate normal commercial storage conditions, and sampled in the beginning of the experiment, and after eight, ten and twelve days. Moisture, condition index, percentage edibility, total volatile basic nitrogen (TVB-N), pH, nitrogen and carbon percentages and stable isotopes were determined for each sampling moment. Stable isotope analyses were performed using a Costech Elemental Analyzer (ECS 4010) coupled to a ThermoFinnigan Delta V Advantage. Stable isotopes analysis, especially for nitrogen, proved to be a good tool for the study of clam deterioration. Nitrogen stable isotopes results showed a relation with other spoilage indicators, such as pH and TVB-N, and allowed identifying spoilage specific pathways, such as amino acids decarboxylation and production of volatile nitrogen compounds.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Continental mass change from GRACE over 2002-2011 and its impact on sea level

Present-day continental mass variation as observed by space gravimetry reveals secular mass decline and accumulation. Whereas the former contributes to sea-level rise, the latter results in sea-level fall. As such, consideration of mass accumulation (rather than focussing solely on mass loss) is important for reliable overall estimates of sea-level change. Using data from the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment satellite mission, we quantify mass-change trends in 19 continental areas that exhibit a dominant signal. The integrated mass change within these regions is representative of the variation over the whole land areas. During the integer 9-year period of May 2002 to April 2011, GIA-adjusted mass gain and mass loss in these areas contributed, on average, to −(0.7 ± 0.4) mm/year of sea-level fall and + (1.8 ± 0.2) mm/year of sea-level rise; the net effect was + (1.1 ± 0.6) mm/year. Ice melting over Greenland, Iceland, Svalbard, the Canadian Arctic archipelago, Antarctica, Alaska and Patagonia was responsible for + (1.4±0.2) mm/year of the total balance. Hence, land-water mass accumulation compensated about 20 % of the impact of ice-melt water influx to the oceans. In order to assess the impact of geocentre motion, we converted geocentre coordinates derived from satellite laser ranging (SLR) to degree-one geopotential coefficients. We found geocentre motion to introduce small biases to mass-change and sea-level change estimates; its overall effect is + (0.1 ± 0.1) mm/year. This value, however, should be taken with care owing to questionable reliability of secular trends in SLR-derived geocentre coordinates

Integrating isotopes and documentary evidence : dietary patterns in a late medieval and early modern mining community, Sweden

We would like to thank the Archaeological Research Laboratory, Stockholm University, Sweden and the Tandem Laboratory (Ångström Laboratory), Uppsala University, Sweden, for undertaking the analyses of stable nitrogen and carbon isotopes in both human and animal collagen samples. Also, thanks to Elin Ahlin Sundman for providing the δ13C and δ15N values for animal references from Västerås. This research (Bäckström’s PhD employment at Lund University, Sweden) was supported by the Berit Wallenberg Foundation (BWS 2010.0176) and Jakob and Johan Söderberg’s foundation. The ‘Sala project’ (excavations and analyses) has been funded by Riksens Clenodium, Jernkontoret, Birgit and Gad Rausing’s Foundation, SAU’s Research Foundation, the Royal Physiographic Society of Lund, Berit Wallenbergs Foundation, Åke Wibergs Foundation, Lars Hiertas Memory, Helge Ax:son Johnson’s Foundation and The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

The uronic acid content of coccolith-associated polysaccharides provides insight into coccolithogenesis and past climate

Unicellular phytoplanktonic algae (coccolithophores) are among the most prolific producers of calcium carbonate on the planet, with a production of ∼1026 coccoliths per year. During their lith formation, coccolithophores mainly employ coccolith-associated polysaccharides (CAPs) for the regulation of crystal nucleation and growth. These macromolecules interact with the intracellular calcifying compartment (coccolith vesicle) through the charged carboxyl groups of their uronic acid residues. Here we report the isolation of CAPs from modern day coccolithophores and their prehistoric predecessors and we demonstrate that their uronic acid content (UAC) offers a species-specific signature. We also show that there is a correlation between the UAC of CAPs and the internal saturation state of the coccolith vesicle that, for most geologically abundant species, is inextricably linked to carbon availability. These findings suggest that the UAC of CAPs reports on the adaptation of coccolithogenesis to environmental changes and can be used for the estimation of past CO2 concentrations

Length of carotid stenosis predicts peri-procedural stroke or death and restenosis in patients randomized to endovascular treatment or endarterectomy.

BACKGROUND: The anatomy of carotid stenosis may influence the outcome of endovascular treatment or carotid endarterectomy. Whether anatomy favors one treatment over the other in terms of safety or efficacy has not been investigated in randomized trials. METHODS: In 414 patients with mostly symptomatic carotid stenosis randomized to endovascular treatment (angioplasty or stenting; n = 213) or carotid endarterectomy (n = 211) in the Carotid and Vertebral Artery Transluminal Angioplasty Study (CAVATAS), the degree and length of stenosis and plaque surface irregularity were assessed on baseline intraarterial angiography. Outcome measures were stroke or death occurring between randomization and 30 days after treatment, and ipsilateral stroke and restenosis ≥50% during follow-up. RESULTS: Carotid stenosis longer than 0.65 times the common carotid artery diameter was associated with increased risk of peri-procedural stroke or death after both endovascular treatment [odds ratio 2.79 (1.17-6.65), P = 0.02] and carotid endarterectomy [2.43 (1.03-5.73), P = 0.04], and with increased long-term risk of restenosis in endovascular treatment [hazard ratio 1.68 (1.12-2.53), P = 0.01]. The excess in restenosis after endovascular treatment compared with carotid endarterectomy was significantly greater in patients with long stenosis than with short stenosis at baseline (interaction P = 0.003). Results remained significant after multivariate adjustment. No associations were found for degree of stenosis and plaque surface. CONCLUSIONS: Increasing stenosis length is an independent risk factor for peri-procedural stroke or death in endovascular treatment and carotid endarterectomy, without favoring one treatment over the other. However, the excess restenosis rate after endovascular treatment compared with carotid endarterectomy increases with longer stenosis at baseline. Stenosis length merits further investigation in carotid revascularisation trials

Stable carbon and nitrogen isotope enrichment in primate tissues

Isotopic studies of wild primates have used a wide range of tissues to infer diet and model the foraging ecologies of extinct species. The use of mismatched tissues for such comparisons can be problematic because differences in amino acid compositions can lead to small isotopic differences between tissues. Additionally, physiological and dietary differences among primate species could lead to variable offsets between apatite carbonate and collagen. To improve our understanding of the isotopic chemistry of primates, we explored the apparent enrichment (ε*) between bone collagen and muscle, collagen and fur or hair keratin, muscle and keratin, and collagen and bone carbonate across the primate order. We found that the mean ε* values of proteinaceous tissues were small (≤1‰), and uncorrelated with body size or phylogenetic relatedness. Additionally, ε* values did not vary by habitat, sex, age, or manner of death. The mean ε* value between bone carbonate and collagen (5.6 ± 1.2‰) was consistent with values reported for omnivorous mammals consuming monoisotopic diets. These primate-specific apparent enrichment values will be a valuable tool for cross-species comparisons. Additionally, they will facilitate dietary comparisons between living and fossil primates

Multidisciplinary investigations of the diets of two post-medieval populations from London using stable isotopes and microdebris analysis

This paper presents the first multi-tissue study of diet in post-medieval London using both the stable light isotope analysis of carbon and nitrogen and analysis of microdebris in dental calculus. Dietary intake was explored over short and long timescales. Bulk bone collagen was analysed from humans from the Queen’s Chapel of the Savoy (QCS) (n = 66) and the St Barnabas/St Mary Abbots (SB) (n = 25). Incremental dentine analysis was performed on the second molar of individual QCS1123 to explore childhood dietary intake. Bulk hair samples (n = 4) were sampled from adults from QCS, and dental calculus was analysed from four other individuals using microscopy. In addition, bone collagen from a total of 46 animals from QCS (n = 11) and the additional site of Prescot Street (n = 35) was analysed, providing the first animal dietary baseline for post-medieval London. Overall, isotopic results suggest a largely C3-based terrestrial diet for both populations, with the exception of QCS1123 who exhibited values consistent with the consumption of C4 food sources throughout childhood and adulthood. The differences exhibited in δ15Ncoll across both populations likely reflect variations in diet due to social class and occupation, with individuals from SB likely representing wealthier individuals consuming larger quantities of animal and marine fish protein. Microdebris analysis results were limited but indicate the consumption of domestic cereals. This paper demonstrates the utility of a multidisciplinary approach to investigate diet across long and short timescales to further our understanding of variations in social status and mobility