The urban energy balance of a lightweight low-rise neighborhood in Andacollo, Chile

Worldwide, the majority of rapidly growing neighborhoods are found in the Global South. They often exhibit different building construction and development patterns than the Global North, and urban climate research in many such neighborhoods has to date been sparse. This study presents local-scale observations of net radiation (Q*) and sensible heat flux (QH) from a lightweight low-rise neighborhood in the desert climate of Andacollo, Chile, and compares observations with results from a process-based urban energy-balance model (TUF3D) and a local-scale empirical model (LUMPS) for a 14-day period in autumn 2009. This is a unique neighborhood-climate combination in the urban energy-balance literature, and results show good agreement between observations and models for Q* and QH. The unmeasured latent heat flux (QE) is modeled with an updated version of TUF3D and two versions of LUMPS (a forward and inverse application). Both LUMPS implementations predict slightly higher QE than TUF3D, which may indicate a bias in LUMPS parameters towards mid-latitude, non-desert climates. Overall, the energy balance is dominated by sensible and storage heat fluxes with mean daytime Bowen ratios of 2.57 (observed QH/LUMPS QE)–3.46 (TUF3D). Storage heat flux (ΔQS) is modeled with TUF3D, the empirical objective hysteresis model (OHM), and the inverse LUMPS implementation. Agreement between models is generally good; the OHM-predicted diurnal cycle deviates somewhat relative to the other two models, likely because OHM coefficients are not specified for the roof and wall construction materials found in this neighborhood. New facet-scale and local-scale OHM coefficients are developed based on modeled ΔQS and observed Q*. Coefficients in the empirical models OHM and LUMPS are derived from observations in primarily non-desert climates in European/North American neighborhoods and must be updated as measurements in lightweight low-rise (and other) neighborhoods in various climates become available

The Air-temperature Response to Green/blue-infrastructure Evaluation Tool (TARGET v1.0) : an efficient and user-friendly model of city cooling

The adverse impacts of urban heat and global climate change are leading policymakers to consider green and blue infrastructure (GBI) for heat mitigation benefits. Though many models exist to evaluate the cooling impacts of GBI, their complexity and computational demand leaves most of them largely inaccessible to those without specialist expertise and computing facilities. Here a new model called The Air-temperature Response to Green/blue-infrastructure Evaluation Tool (TARGET) is presented. TARGET is designed to be efficient and easy to use, with fewer user-defined parameters and less model input data required than other urban climate models. TARGET can be used to model average street-level air temperature at canyon-to-block scales (e.g. 100 m resolution), meaning it can be used to assess temperature impacts of suburb-to-city-scale GBI proposals. The model aims to balance realistic representation of physical processes and computation efficiency. An evaluation against two different datasets shows that TARGET can reproduce the magnitude and patterns of both air temperature and surface temperature within suburban environments. To demonstrate the utility of the model for planners and policymakers, the results from two precinct-scale heat mitigation scenarios are presented. TARGET is available to the public, and ongoing development, including a graphical user interface, is planned for future work

Scaling And Machine Learning Analysis Of Turbulent Fluxes Of Momentum And Heat In The Microclimate Of An Urban Canyon

Turbulent flow inside the urban roughness sublayer, despite its complexities, plays a crucial role in the microclimate of the built environment. The parameterization of flow in the urban roughness sublayer provides a better understanding of turbulent exchange process leading to accurate weather forecasting. This study focused on developing relationships between turbulent quantities, including momentum and heat fluxes, and mean quantities such as mean wind speeds. Field data, including wind directions, wind speeds, and thermal stability conditions, were collected from an urban canopy in Guelph, Ontario, Canada during the summer 2017. Comparative data was obtained from a nearby rural station. A systematic scaling analysis was performed to identify a range of quantities highly related to turbulent fluxes. All combinations of quantities leading to dimensionless groups were evaluated. Linear and nonlinear correlation coefficients between different groups of variables identified when mean and turbulent quantities were related. Significant improvement in correlation coefficients was observed using high order polynomial regression, revealing the challenge of developing a robust model for predicting nonlinear behavior of turbulence. This study also used artificial neural networks (ANNs) to find nonlinear relationships between turbulent and mean quantities. As used here, an ANN is a multivariable function which attempts to approach the exact value of turbulent flux based on independent variables, properly chosen from dimensionless groups. Results showed that these approaches can successfully relate most, but not all, turbulent quantities to mean quantities

Spatially Explicit Correction of Simulated Urban Air Temperatures Using Crowdsourced Data

Urban climate model evaluation often remains limited by a lack of trusted urban weather observations. The increasing density of personal weather sensors (PWSs) make them a potential rich source of data for urban climate studies that address the lack of representative urban weather observations. In our study, we demonstrate that carefully quality-checked PWS data not only improve urban climate models’ evaluation but can also serve for bias correcting their output prior to any urban climate impact studies. After simulating near-surface air temperatures over London and southeast England during the hot summer of 2018 with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model and its building Effect parameterization with the building energy model (BEP–BEM) activated, we evaluated the modeled temperatures against 402 urban PWSs and showcased a heterogeneous spatial distribution of the model’s cool bias that was not captured using official weather stations only. This finding indicated a need for spatially explicit urban bias corrections of air temperatures, which we performed using an innovative method using machine learning to predict the models’ biases in each urban grid cell. This bias-correction technique is the first to consider that modeled urban temperatures follow a nonlinear spatially heterogeneous bias that is decorrelated from urban fraction. Our results showed that the bias correction was beneficial to bias correct daily minimum, daily mean, and daily maximum temperatures in the cities. We recommend that urban climate modelers further investigate the use of quality-checked PWSs for model evaluation and derive a framework for bias correction of urban climate simulations that can serve urban climate impact studies. Significance Statement Urban climate simulations are subject to spatially heterogeneous biases in urban air temperatures. Common validation methods using official weather stations do not suffice for detecting these biases. Using a dense set of personal weather sensors in London, we detect these biases before proposing an innovative way to correct them with machine learning techniques. We argue that any urban climate impact study should use such a technique if possible and that urban climate scientists should continue investigating paths to improve our methods

Evaluating the association between extreme heat and mortality in urban Southwestern Ontario using different temperature data sources

Urban areas have complex thermal distribution. We examined the association between extreme temperature and mortality in urban Ontario, using two temperature data sources: high-resolution and weather station data. We used distributed lag non-linear Poisson models to examine census division-specific temperature–mortality associations between May and September 2005–2012. We used random-effect multivariate meta-analysis to pool results, adjusted for air pollution and temporal trends, and presented risks at the 99th percentile compared to minimum mortality temperature. As additional analyses, we varied knots, examined associations using different temperature metrics (humidex and minimum temperature), and explored relationships using different referent values (most frequent temperature, 75th percentile of temperature distribution). Weather stations yielded lower temperatures across study months. U-shaped associations between temperature and mortality were observed using both high-resolution and weather station data. Temperature–mortality relationships were not statistically significant; however, weather stations yielded estimates with wider confidence intervals. Similar findings were noted in additional analyses. In urban environmental health studies, high-resolution temperature data is ideal where station observations do not fully capture population exposure or where the magnitude of exposure at a local level is important. If focused upon temperature–mortality associations using time series, either source produces similar temperature–mortality relationships

The Co-Production of Sustainable Future Scenarios

Scenarios are a tool to develop plausible, coherent visions about the future and to foster anticipatory knowledge. We present the Sustainable Future Scenarios (SFS) framework and demonstrate its application through the Central Arizona-Phoenix Long-term Ecological Research (CAP LTER) urban site. The SFS approach emphasizes the co-development of positive and long-term alternative future visions. Through a collaboration of practitioner and academic stakeholders, this research integrates participatory scenario development, modeling, and qualitative scenario assessments. The SFS engagement process creates space to question the limits of what is normally considered possible, desirable, or inevitable in the face of future challenges. Comparative analyses among the future scenarios demonstrate trade-offs among regional and microscale temperature, water use, land-use change, and co-developed resilience and sustainability indices. SFS incorporate diverse perspectives in co-producing positive future visions, thereby expanding traditional future projections. The iterative, interactive process also creates opportunities to bridge science and policy by building anticipatory and systems-based decision-making and research capacity for long-term sustainability planning

The Air-temperature Response to Green/blue-infrastructure Evaluation Tool (TARGET v1.0): an efficient and user-friendly model of city cooling

The adverse impacts of urban heat and global climate change are leading policymakers to consider green and blue infrastructure (GBI) for heat mitigation benefits. Though many models exist to evaluate the cooling impacts of GBI, their complexity and computational demand leaves most of them largely inaccessible to those without specialist expertise and computing facilities. Here a new model called The Air-temperature Response to Green/blue-infrastructure Evaluation Tool (TARGET) is presented. TARGET is designed to be efficient and easy to use, with fewer user-defined parameters and less model input data required than other urban climate models. TARGET can be used to model average street-level air temperature at canyon-to-block scales (e.g. 100&thinsp;m resolution), meaning it can be used to assess temperature impacts of suburb-to-city-scale GBI proposals. The model aims to balance realistic representation of physical processes and computation efficiency. An evaluation against two different datasets shows that TARGET can reproduce the magnitude and patterns of both air temperature and surface temperature within suburban environments. To demonstrate the utility of the model for planners and policymakers, the results from two precinct-scale heat mitigation scenarios are presented. TARGET is available to the public, and ongoing development, including a graphical user interface, is planned for future work.</p

The International Urban Energy Balance Models Comparison Project: First Results from Phase 1

A large number of urban surface energy balance models now exist with different assumptions about the important features of the surface and exchange processes that need to be incorporated. To date, no com- parison of these models has been conducted; in contrast, models for natural surfaces have been compared extensively as part of the Project for Intercomparison of Land-surface Parameterization Schemes. Here, the methods and first results from an extensive international comparison of 33 models are presented. The aim of the comparison overall is to understand the complexity required to model energy and water exchanges in urban areas. The degree of complexity included in the models is outlined and impacts on model performance are discussed. During the comparison there have been significant developments in the models with resulting improvements in performance (root-mean-square error falling by up to two-thirds). Evaluation is based on a dataset containing net all-wave radiation, sensible heat, and latent heat flux observations for an industrial area in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada. The aim of the comparison is twofold: to identify those modeling ap- proaches that minimize the errors in the simulated fluxes of the urban energy balance and to determine the degree of model complexity required for accurate simulations. There is evidence that some classes of models perform better for individual fluxes but no model performs best or worst for all fluxes. In general, the simpler models perform as well as the more complex models based on all statistical measures. Generally the schemes have best overall capability to model net all-wave radiation and least capability to model latent heat flux

WRF-Comfort: simulating microscale variability in outdoor heat stress at the city scale with a mesoscale model

Urban overheating and its ongoing exacerbation due to global warming and urban development lead to increased exposure to urban heat and increased thermal discomfort and heat stress. To quantify thermal stress, specific indices have been proposed that depend on air temperature, mean radiant temperature (MRT), wind speed, and relative humidity. While temperature and humidity vary on scales of hundreds of meters, MRT and wind speed are strongly affected by individual buildings and trees and vary on the meter scale. Therefore, most numerical thermal comfort studies apply microscale models to limited spatial domains (commonly representing urban neighborhoods with building blocks) with resolutions on the order of 1 m and a few hours of simulation. This prevents the analysis of the impact of city-scale adaptation and/or mitigation strategies on thermal stress and comfort. To solve this problem, we develop a methodology to estimate thermal stress indicators and their subgrid variability in mesoscale models – here applied to the multilayer urban canopy parameterization BEP-BEM within the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The new scheme (consisting of three main steps) can readily assess intra-neighborhood-scale heat stress distributions across whole cities and for timescales of minutes to years. The first key component of the approach is the estimation of MRT in several locations within streets for different street orientations. Second, mean wind speed and its subgrid variability are downscaled as a function of the local urban morphology based on relations derived from a set of microscale LES and RANS simulations across a wide range of realistic and idealized urban morphologies. Lastly, we compute the distributions of two thermal stress indices for each grid square, combining all the subgrid values of MRT, wind speed, air temperature, and absolute humidity. From these distributions, we quantify the high and low tails of the heat stress distribution in each grid square across the city, representing the thermal diversity experienced in street canyons. In this contribution, we present the core methodology as well as simulation results for Madrid (Spain), which illustrate strong differences between heat stress indices and common heat metrics like air or surface temperature both across the city and over the diurnal cycle.</p

Daytime Thermal Anisotropy of Urban Neighbourhoods: Morphological Causation

Surface temperature is a key variable in boundary-layer meteorology and is typically acquired by remote observation of emitted thermal radiation. However, the three-dimensional structure of cities complicates matters: uneven solar heating of urban facets produces an “effective anisotropy” of surface thermal emission at the neighbourhood scale. Remotely-sensed urban surface temperature varies with sensor view angle as a consequence. The authors combine a microscale urban surface temperature model with a thermal remote sensing model to predict the effective anisotropy of simplified neighbourhood configurations. The former model provides detailed surface temperature distributions for a range of “urban” forms, and the remote sensing model computes aggregate temperatures for multiple view angles. The combined model’s ability to reproduce observed anisotropy is evaluated against measurements from a neighbourhood in Vancouver, Canada. As in previous modeling studies, anisotropy is underestimated. Addition of moderate coverages of small (sub-facet scale) structure can account for much of the missing anisotropy. Subsequently, over 1900 sensitivity simulations are performed with the model combination, and the dependence of daytime effective thermal anisotropy on diurnal solar path (i.e., latitude and time of day) and blunt neighbourhood form is assessed. The range of effective anisotropy, as well as the maximum difference from nadir-observed brightness temperature, peak for moderate building-height-to-spacing ratios (H/W), and scale with canyon (between-building) area; dispersed high-rise urban forms generate maximum anisotropy. Maximum anisotropy increases with solar elevation and scales with shortwave irradiance. Moreover, it depends linearly on H/W for H/W &lt; 1.25, with a slope that depends on maximum off-nadir sensor angle. Decreasing minimum brightness temperature is primarily responsible for this linear growth of maximum anisotropy. These results allow first order estimation of the minimum effective anisotropy magnitude of urban neighbourhoods as a function of building-height-to-spacing ratio, building plan area density, and shortwave irradiance. Finally, four “local climate zones” are simulated at two latitudes. Removal of neighbourhood street orientation regularity for these zones decreases maximum anisotropy by 3%–31%. Furthermore, thermal and radiative material properties are a weaker predictor of anisotropy than neighbourhood morphology. This study is the first systematic evaluation of effective anisotropy magnitude and causation for urban landscapes