Limits to solar cycle predictability: Cross-equatorial flux plumes

Within the Babcock-Leighton framework for the solar dynamo, the strength of a cycle is expected to depend on the strength of the dipole moment or net hemispheric flux during the preceding minimum, which depends on how much flux was present in each hemisphere at the start of the previous cycle and how much net magnetic flux was transported across the equator during the cycle. Some of this transport is associated with the random walk of magnetic flux tubes subject to granular and supergranular buffeting, some of it is due to the advection caused by systematic cross-equatorial flows such as those associated with the inflows into active regions, and some crosses the equator during the emergence process. We aim to determine how much of the cross-equatorial transport is due to small-scale disorganized motions (treated as diffusion) compared with other processes such as emergence flux across the equator. We measure the cross-equatorial flux transport using Kitt Peak synoptic magnetograms, estimating both the total and diffusive fluxes. Occasionally a large sunspot group, with a large tilt angle emerges crossing the equator, with flux from the two polarities in opposite hemispheres. The largest of these events carry a substantial amount of flux across the equator (compared to the magnetic flux near the poles). We call such events cross-equatorial flux plumes. There are very few such large events during a cycle, which introduces an uncertainty into the determination of the amount of magnetic flux transported across the equator in any particular cycle. As the amount of flux which crosses the equator determines the amount of net flux in each hemisphere, it follows that the cross-equatorial plumes introduce an uncertainty in the prediction of the net flux in each hemisphere. This leads to an uncertainty in predictions of the strength of the following cycle.Comment: A&A, accepte

Magnetic flux generation and transport in cool stars

The Sun and other cool stars harbouring outer convection zones manifest magnetic activity in their atmospheres. The connection between this activity and the properties of a deep-seated dynamo generating the magnetic flux is not well understood. By employing physical models, we study the spatial and temporal characteristics of the observable surface field for various stellar parameters. We combine models for magnetic flux generation, buoyancy instability, and transport, which encompass the entire convection zone. The model components are: (1) a thin-layer alpha-Omega dynamo at the base of the convection zone; (2) buoyancy instabilities and the rise of flux tubes through the convection zone in 3D, which provides a physically consistent determination of emergence latitudes and tilt angles; and (3) horizontal flux transport at the surface. For solar-type stars and rotation periods longer than about 10 days, the latitudinal dynamo waves generated by the deep-seated alpha-Omega dynamo are faithfully reflected by the surface distribution of magnetic flux. For rotation periods of the order of two days, however, Coriolis acceleration of rising flux loops leads to surface flux emergence at much higher latitudes than the dynamo waves at the bottom of the convection zone reach. A similar result is found for a K0V star with a rotation period of two days. In the case of a rapidly rotating K1 subgiant, overlapping dynamo waves lead to noisy activity cycles and mixed-polarity fields at high latitudes.Comment: 14 pages, 14 figures. Accepted for publication in Astronomy & Astrophysic

Características y propiedades de los ignimbritos de Bitlis y sus implicaciones ambientales

Bitlis rock is used as a construction material and comes from the lava emitted by volcanoes and their subsequent transformation into ignimbrites. This type of rocks has been characterized physically, chemi­cally, toxicologically and radioactively using different procedures including determination of the coefficient of thermal conductivity, gamma spectrometry, ultrasonic speed test, ICP masses and metal extraction. The results indicate that Bitlis rocks have an ACI greater than 1, although their content of radon is lower than other rocks of volcanic origin. Leaching of metals from these rocks indicates that Pb and Cd can provide an infiltration level in the field higher than the level permitted by TCLP and they have undesired toxicological risks. The percent­ages of extraction of other metals also point to this infiltration problem. Despite this, the material offers good qualities for usage as a building material such as its thermal coefficients.La roca Bitlis se utiliza como material de construcción y proviene de la lava emitida por los volcanes y su posterior transformación en ignimbritas. Este tipo de rocas se ha caracterizado física, química, toxicológica y radioactivamente utilizando diferentes procedimientos, incluida la determinación del coeficiente de conductividad térmica, espectrometría gamma, prueba de velocidad ultrasónica, ICP masas y extracción de metales. Los resultados indican que las rocas Bitlis tienen un ACI mayor que 1, aunque su contenido de radón es más bajo que el de otras rocas de origen volcánico. La lixiviación de metales de estas rocas indica que el Pb y el Cd pueden proporcionar un nivel de infiltración en el campo más alto que el nivel permitido por TCLP y tener riesgos toxicológicos no deseados. Los porcentajes de extracción de otros metales también apuntan a este problema de infiltración. A pesar de esto, el material ofrece buenas cualidades para su uso como material de construcción, como pueden ser sus coeficientes térmicos

Flow instabilities of magnetic flux tubes IV. Flux storage in the solar overshoot region

We consider the effects of material flows on the dynamics of toroidal magnetic flux tubes located close to the base of the solar convection zone, initially within the overshoot region. The problem is to find the physical conditions in which magnetic flux can be stored for periods comparable to the dynamo amplification time, which is of the order of a few years. We carry out nonlinear numerical simulations to investigate the stability and dynamics of thin flux tubes subject to perpendicular and longitudinal flows. We compare the simulations with the results of simplified analytical approximations. We determine ranges of the flow parameters for which a linearly Parker-stable magnetic flux tube is stored in the middle of the overshoot region for a period comparable to the dynamo amplification time. The residence time for magnetic flux tubes with fluxes of 2x10^{21} Mx in the convective overshoot layer is comparable to the dynamo amplification time, provided that the average speed and the duration of the downflow do not exceed about 50 m/s and 100 days, respectively, and that the lateral extension of the flow is smaller than about 10 degrees.Comment: Accepted to be published in Astronomy and Astrophysics. 16 pages, 16 figures. To access GIF animations, use http://www.mps.mpg.de/homes/ishik/flute/frict_inst.gif, http://www.mps.mpg.de/homes/ishik/flute/TF60.gif and http://www.mps.mpg.de/homes/ishik/flute/TF180.gi

Observing and modelling the young solar analogue EK Draconis: starspot distribution, elemental abundances, and evolutionary status

Observations and modelling of stars with near-solar masses in their early phases of evolution is critical for a better understanding of how dynamos of solar-type stars evolve. We examine the chemical composition and the spot distribution of the pre-main-sequence solar analogue EK Dra. Using spectra from the HERMES Spectrograph (La Palma), we obtain the abundances of 23 elements with respect to the solar ones, which lead to a $[{\rm Fe/H}]=0.03$, with significant overabundance of Li and Ba. The s-process elements Sr, Y, and Ce are marginally overabundant, while Co, Ni, Cu, Zn are marginally deficient compared to solar abundances. The overabundance of Ba is most likely due to the assumption of depth-independent microturbulent velocity. Li abundance is consistent with the age and the other abundances may indicate distinct initial conditions of the pre-stellar nebula. We estimate a mass of 1.04 $M_\odot$ and an age of $27^{+11}_{-8}$\,Myr using various spectroscopic and photometric indicators. We study the surface distribution of dark spots, using 17 spectra collected during 15 nights using the CAFE Spectrograph (Calar Alto). We also conduct flux emergence and transport (FEAT) simulations for EK Dra's parameters and produce 15-day-averaged synoptic maps of the likely starspot distributions. Using Doppler imaging, we reconstruct the surface brightness distributions for the observed spectra and FEAT simulations, which show overall agreement for polar and mid-latitude spots, while in the simulations there is a lack of low-latitude spots compared to the observed image. We find indications that cross-equatorial extensions of mid-latitude spots can be artefacts of the less visible southern-hemisphere activity.Comment: 15 pages, 16 figures, accepted for publication in MNRAS; corrections in Abstract and Introductio

Predictions of Astrometric Jitter for Sun-like Stars. II. Dependence on Inclination, Metallicity, and Active-Region Nesting

Ultra-precise astrometry from the Gaia mission is expected to lead to astrometric detections of more than 20,000 exoplanets in our Galaxy. One of the factors that could hamper such detections is the astrometric jitter caused by the magnetic activity of the planet host stars. In our previous study, we modeled astrometric jitter for the Sun observed equator-on. In this work, we generalize our model and calculate the photocenter jitter as it would be measured by the Gaia and Small-JASMINE missions for stars with solar rotation rate and effective temperature, but with various values of the inclination angle of the stellar rotation axis. In addition, we consider the effect of metallicity and of nesting of active regions (i.e. the tendency of active regions to emerge in the vicinity of each other). We find that, while the jitter of stars observed equator-on does not have any long-term trends and can be easily filtered out, the photocenters of stars observed out of their equatorial planes experience systematic shifts over the course of the activity cycle. Such trends allow the jitter to be detected with continuous measurements, in which case it can interfere with planet detectability. An increase in the metallicity is found to increase the jitter caused by stellar activity. Active-region nesting can further enhance the peak-to-peak amplitude of the photocenter jitter to a level that could be detected by Gaia.Comment: 24 pages, 20 figures in the main body and 4 in the appendix, accepted for publication in Ap

Surface flux evolution constraints for flux transport dynamos

The surface flux transport (SFT) model of solar magnetic fields involves empirically well-constrained velocity and magnetic fields. The basic evolution of the Sun's large-scale surface magnetic field is well described by this model. The azimuthally averaged evolution of the SFT model can be compared to the surface evolution of the flux transport dynamo (FTD), and the evolution of the SFT model can be used to constrain several near-surface properties of the FTD model. We compared the results of the FTD model with different upper boundary conditions and diffusivity profiles against the results of the SFT model. Among the ingredients of the FTD model, downward pumping of magnetic flux, related to a positive diffusivity gradient, has a significant effect in slowing down the diffusive radial transport of magnetic flux through the solar surface. Provided the pumping was strong enough to give rise to a downflow of a magnetic Reynolds number of 5 in the near-surface boundary layer, the FTD using a vertical boundary condition matches the SFT model based on the average velocities above the boundary layer. The FTD model with a potential field were unable to match the SFT results.Comment: Accepted for A&

Gas and seismicity within the Istanbul seismic gap

Understanding micro-seismicity is a critical question for earthquake hazard assessment. Since the devastating earthquakes of Izmit and Duzce in 1999, the seismicity along the submerged section of North Anatolian Fault within the Sea of Marmara (comprising the “Istanbul seismic gap”) has been extensively studied in order to infer its mechanical behaviour (creeping vs locked). So far, the seismicity has been interpreted only in terms of being tectonic-driven, although the Main Marmara Fault (MMF) is known to strike across multiple hydrocarbon gas sources. Here, we show that a large number of the aftershocks that followed the M 5.1 earthquake of July, 25th 2011 in the western Sea of Marmara, occurred within a zone of gas overpressuring in the 1.5–5 km depth range, from where pressurized gas is expected to migrate along the MMF, up to the surface sediment layers. Hence, gas-related processes should also be considered for a complete interpretation of the micro-seismicity (~M < 3) within the Istanbul offshore domain

High-K volcanism in the Afyon region, western Turkey: from Si-oversaturated to Si-undersaturated volcanism

Volcanic rocks of the Afyon province (eastern part of western Anatolia) make up a multistage potassic and ultrapotassic alkaline series dated from 14 to 12 Ma. The early-stage Si-oversaturated volcanic rocks around the Afyon city and further southward are trachyandesitic volcanic activity (14.23 ± 0.09 Ma). Late-stage Si-undersaturated volcanism in the southernmost part of the Afyon volcanic province took place in three episodes inferred from their stratigraphic relationships and ages. Melilite– leucitites (11.50 ± 0.03 Ma), spotted rachyandesites, tephryphonolites and lamproites (11.91 ± 0.13 Ma) formed in the first episode; trachyandesites in the second episode and finally phonotephrites, phonolite, basaltic trachyandesites and nosean-bearing trachyandesites during the last episode. The parameter Q [normative q-(ne + lc + kls + ol)] of western Anatolia volcanism clearly decreased southward with time becoming zero in the time interval 10–15 Ma. The magmatism experienced a sudden change in the extent of Si saturation after 14 Ma, during late-stage volcanic activity of Afyon volcanic province at around 12 Ma, though there was some coexistence of Si-oversaturated and Si-undersaturated magmas during the whole life of Afyon volcanic province