Evaluating the ecological realism of plant species distribution models with ecological indicator values

Species distribution models (SDMs) are routinely applied to assess current as well as future species distributions, for example to assess impacts of future environmental change on biodiversity or to underpin conservation planning. It has been repeatedly emphasized that SDMs should be evaluated based not only on their goodness of fit to the data, but also on the realism of the modelled ecological responses. However, possibilities for the latter are hampered by limited knowledge on the true responses as well as a lack of quantitative evaluation methods. Here we compared modelled niche optima obtained from European-scale SDMs of 1,476 terrestrial vascular plant species with empirical ecological indicator values indicating the preferences of plant species for key environmental conditions. For each plant species we first fitted an ensemble SDM including three modeling techniques (GLM, GAM and BRT) and extracted niche optima for climate, soil, land use and nitrogen deposition variables with a large explanatory power for the occurrence of that species. We then compared these SDM-derived niche optima with the ecological indicator values by means of bivariate correlation analysis. We found weak to moderate correlations in the expected direction between the SDM-derived niche optima and ecological indicator values. The strongest correlation occurred between the modelled optima for growing degree days and the ecological indicator values for temperature. Correlations were weaker for SDM-derived niche optima with a more distal relationship to ecological indicator values (notably precipitation and soil moisture). Further, correlations were consistently highest for BRT, followed by GLM and GAM. Our method gives insight into the ecological realism of modelled niche optima and projected core habitats and can be used to improve SDMs by making a more informed selection of environmental variables and modeling techniques

Using species attributes to characterize late-glacial and early-Holocene environments at Kråkenes, western Norway

Aim: We aim to use species attributes such as distributions and indicator values to reconstruct past biomes, environment, and temperatures from detailed plant‐macrofossil data covering the late glacial to the early Holocene (ca. 14–9 ka). Location: Kråkenes, western Norway. Methods: We applied attributes for present‐day geographical distribution, optimal July and January temperatures, and Ellenberg indicator values for plants in the macrofossil data‐set. We used assemblage weighted means (AWM) to reconstruct past biomes, changes in light (L), nitrogen (N), moisture (F), and soil reaction (R), and temperatures. We compared the temperature reconstructions with previous chironomid‐inferred temperatures. Results: After the start of the Holocene around 11.5 ka, the Arctic‐montane biome, which was stable during the late‐glacial period, shifted successively into the Boreo‐arctic montane, Wide‐boreal, Boreo‐montane, Boreo‐temperate, and Wide‐temperate biomes by ca. 9.0 ka. Circumpolar and Eurasian floristic elements characteristic of the late‐glacial decreased and the Eurosiberian element became prominent. Light demand (L), soil moisture (F), nitrogen (N), and soil reaction (R) show different, but complementary responses. Light‐demanding plants decreased with time. Soil moisture was relatively stable until it increased during organic soil development during the early Holocene. Soil nitrogen increased during the early Holocene. Soil reaction (pH) decreased during the Allerød, but increased during the Younger Dryas. It decreased markedly after the start of the Holocene, reaching low but stable levels in the early Holocene. Mean July and January temperatures show similar patterns to the chironomid‐inferred mean July temperature trends at Kråkenes, but chironomids show larger fluctuations and interesting differences in timing. Conclusion: Assigning attributes to macrofossil species is a useful new approach in palaeoecology. It can demonstrate changes in biomes, ecological conditions, and temperatures. The late‐glacial to early‐Holocene transition may form an analogue for changes observed in the modern arctic and in mountains, with melting glaciers, permafrost thaw, and shrub encroachment into tundra.publishedVersio

The cellular microscopy phenotype ontology

BACKGROUND: Phenotypic data derived from high content screening is currently annotated using free-text, thus preventing the integration of independent datasets, including those generated in different biological domains, such as cell lines, mouse and human tissues. DESCRIPTION: We present the Cellular Microscopy Phenotype Ontology (CMPO), a species neutral ontology for describing phenotypic observations relating to the whole cell, cellular components, cellular processes and cell populations. CMPO is compatible with related ontology efforts, allowing for future cross-species integration of phenotypic data. CMPO was developed following a curator-driven approach where phenotype data were annotated by expert biologists following the Entity-Quality (EQ) pattern. These EQs were subsequently transformed into new CMPO terms following an established post composition process. CONCLUSION: CMPO is currently being utilized to annotate phenotypes associated with high content screening datasets stored in several image repositories including the Image Data Repository (IDR), MitoSys project database and the Cellular Phenotype Database to facilitate data browsing and discoverability

Drought survival is positively associated with high turgor loss points in temperate perennial grassland species

1. Turgor loss point (πtlp) has been suggested to be a key trait for drought resistance in woody species. In herbaceous grassland species the role of πtlp for species drought survival has not yet been tested, although grasslands are projected to experience more frequent and intense droughts with climate change. 2. To gain insights into the role of πtlp for drought resistance of temperate perennial grassland species, we assessed πtlp of 41 species common in Germany (20 forbs, 21 grasses). We directly related them to the species' comparative whole-plant drought survival and midday leaf water potentials under drought (ΨMD) assessed in a common garden drought experiment, and to species moisture association. 3. Species drought survival increased with increasing πtlp across all species as well as within forbs or grasses separately. ΨMD was positively related to πtlp and drought survival. Our results imply that high πtlp promotes drought survival of common perennial European temperate mesic grassland species by enabling them to maintain high leaf water potentials under drought, i.e., a desiccation avoidance strategy. However, πtlp was not related to species moisture association. 4. The positive relationship between πtlp and drought survival in herbaceous grassland species was opposite to the negative relationship previously established in woody plants, implying that mechanisms of drought resistance differ between woody and herbaceous species. Our results highlight the necessity of directly testing the relationship of functional traits to whole-plant drought survival in different plant life forms, before using trait assessments for predicting plant responses to drought.Funding provided by: DFG Priority Program 1374Crossref Funder Registry ID: Award Number: Infrastructure-Biodiversity-Exploratorie

Cisternal Organization of the Endoplasmic Reticulum during Mitosis

The endoplasmic reticulum (ER) of animal cells is a single, dynamic, and continuous membrane network of interconnected cisternae and tubules spread out throughout the cytosol in direct contact with the nuclear envelope. During mitosis, the nuclear envelope undergoes a major rearrangement, as it rapidly partitions its membrane-bound contents into the ER. It is therefore of great interest to determine whether any major transformation in the architecture of the ER also occurs during cell division. We present structural evidence, from rapid, live-cell, three-dimensional imaging with confirmation from high-resolution electron microscopy tomography of samples preserved by high-pressure freezing and freeze substitution, unambiguously showing that from prometaphase to telophase of mammalian cells, most of the ER is organized as extended cisternae, with a very small fraction remaining organized as tubules. In contrast, during interphase, the ER displays the familiar reticular network of convolved cisternae linked to tubules

Human Impacts on Forest Biodiversity in Protected Walnut-Fruit Forests in Kyrgyzstan

We used a spatially explicit model of forest dynamics, supported by empirical field data and socioeconomic data, to examine the impacts of human disturbances on a protected forest landscape in Kyrgyzstan. Local use of 27 fruit and nut species was recorded and modeled. Results indicated that in the presence of fuelwood cutting with or without grazing, species of high socioeconomic impor- tance such as Juglans regia, Malus spp., and Armeniaca vulgaris were largely eliminated from the landscape after 50–150 yr. In the absence of disturbance or in the presence of grazing only, decline of these species occurred at a much lower rate, owing to competi- tive interactions between tree species. This suggests that the current intensity of fuelwood harvesting is not sustainable. Conversely, cur- rent grazing intensities were found to have relatively little impact on forest structure and composition, and could potentially play a positive role in supporting regeneration of tree species. These results indicate that both positive and negative impacts on biodiversity can arise from human populations living within a protected area. Potentially, these could be reconciled through the development of participatory approaches to conservation management within this reserve, to ensure the maintenance of its high conservation value while meeting human needs

Long-term changes to the frequency of occurrence of British moths are consistent with opposing and synergistic effects of climate and land-use changes

1. Species’ distributions are likely to be affected by a combination of environmental drivers. We used a data set of 11 million species occurrence records over the period 1970–2010 to assess changes in the frequency of occurrence of 673 macro-moth species in Great Britain. Groups of species with different predicted sensitivities showed divergent trends, which we interpret in the context of land-use and climatic changes. 2. A diversity of responses was revealed: 260 moth species declined significantly, whereas 160 increased significantly. Overall, frequencies of occurrence declined, mirroring trends in less species-rich, yet more intensively studied taxa. 3. Geographically widespread species, which were predicted to be more sensitive to land use than to climate change, declined significantly in southern Britain, where the cover of urban and arable land has increased. 4. Moths associated with low nitrogen and open environments (based on their larval host plant characteristics) declined most strongly, which is also consistent with a land-use change explanation. 5. Some moths that reach their northern (leading edge) range limit in southern Britain increased, whereas species restricted to northern Britain (trailing edge) declined significantly, consistent with a climate change explanation. 6. Not all species of a given type behaved similarly, suggesting that complex interactions between species’ attributes and different combinations of environmental drivers determine frequency of occurrence changes. 7. Synthesis and applications. Our findings are consistent with large-scale responses to climatic and land-use changes, with some species increasing and others decreasing. We suggest that land-use change (e.g. habitat loss, nitrogen deposition) and climate change are both major drivers of moth biodiversity change, acting independently and in combination. Importantly, the diverse responses revealed in this species-rich taxon show that multifaceted conservation strategies are needed to minimize negative biodiversity impacts of multiple environmental changes. We suggest that habitat protection, management and ecological restoration can mitigate combined impacts of land-use change and climate change by providing environments that are suitable for existing populations and also enable species to shift their ranges