Velocity correlations in dense granular flows

Velocity fluctuations of grains flowing down a rough inclined plane are experimentally studied. The grains at the free surface exhibit fluctuating motions, which are correlated over few grains diameters. The characteristic correlation length is shown to depend on the inclination of the plane and not on the thickness of the flowing layer. This result strongly supports the idea that dense granular flows are controlled by a characteristic length larger than the particle diameter

Oil price and potential output growth in the long run

The goal of this paper is to gauge the impact of the expected oil price increase on the potential output growth of the French economy in the long run. This potential output exercise is conducted using CES (Constant Elasticity of Substitution) production functions featuring three factors: capital, labour and energy. Moreover, the sectoral composition of the economy is taken into account through a breaking down of the economy into four sectors (manufacturing industry, construction, market services, and agriculture). The model yields a potential output of growth of about 2 % per year in the absence of oil price variations. The various scenarios of oil price increases result in a shortage of growth between 0.1 and 0.6 % per year in the medium run with respect to the constant oil price scenario. The major part of this growth shortage channels through a negative impact on the manufacturing sector, which is highly energy-intensive and also the engine of technical progress.Potential output growth, Unbalanced growth, Oil price

On the dependence of the avalanche angle on the granular layer thickness

A layer of sand of thickness h flows down a rough surface if the inclination is larger than some threshold value theta which decreases with h. A tentative microscopic model for the dependence of theta with h is proposed for rigid frictional grains, based on the following hypothesis: (i) a horizontal layer of sand has some coordination z larger than a critical value z_c where mechanical stability is lost (ii) as the tilt angle is increased, the configurations visited present a growing proportion $_s of sliding contacts. Instability with respect to flow occurs when z-z_s=z_c. This criterion leads to a prediction for theta(h) in good agreement with empirical observations.Comment: 6 pages, 2 figure

Aeolian sans ripples: experimental study of saturated states

We report an experimental investigation of aeolian sand ripples, performed both in a wind tunnel and on stoss slopes of dunes. Starting from a flat bed, we can identify three regimes: appearance of an initial wavelength, coarsening of the pattern and finally saturation of the ripples. We show that both initial and final wavelengths, as well as the propagative speed of the ripples, are linear functions of the wind velocity. Investigating the evolution of an initially corrugated bed, we exhibit non-linear stable solutions for a finite range of wavelengths, which demonstrates the existence of a saturation in amplitude. These results contradict most of the models.Comment: 4 pages, 5 figures, submitted to Phys. Rev. Lett. Title changed, figures corrected and simplified, more field data included, text clarifie

What medium-term growth rates after the crisis?

The financial crisis originated in the United States in 2007 and, then, spread in all the economies of the world. After a drop in activity of historic magnitude, first signs of recovery were recorded in 2009. However, our study of previous banking crises that have taken place in OECD countries over the last forty years leads one to expect a very gradual return of growth rates to their pre-crisis values, with long-lasting losses for the level of GDP. According to our estimations, average losses observed during past banking crises occurred through a reduction in capital stocks, an increase in unemployment rates and a drop in participation rates. Conversely, past banking crises seemed to have had little impact on total factor productivity. In France, the 1992-1993 crisis, which shares some common features with the current crisis, had also long-lasting negative impacts on the employment and unemployment rates. Employment-rate losses were fairly similar for men and women. Ten years passed before the overall unemployment rate returned to its pre-crisis level. Based on various post-crisis scenarios, we illustrate the mechanical medium-term impact of the current crisis on public finances, whithout any fiscal adjustment after 2012. Even in the scenario of a complete recovery by 2018 of GDP losses recorded in 2008 and 2009, the impact on the public debt would exceed 20 % of GDP ten years after the crisis as a result of declining revenues and increasing interest payments. The impact would be still higher in less favourable scenarios.financial crisis, medium-term growth

Block to granular-like transition in dense bubble flows

We have experimentally investigated 2-dimensional dense bubble flows underneath inclined planes. Velocity profiles and velocity fluctuations have been measured. A broad second-order phase transition between two dynamical regimes is observed as a function of the tilt angle $\theta$. For low $\theta$ values, a block motion is observed. For high $\theta$ values, the velocity profile becomes curved and a shear velocity gradient appears in the flow.Comment: Europhys. Lett. (2003) in pres

The MESANGE model: re-estimation on National Accounts base 2000 / Part 2 Version with chained-linked volumes

Mesange is a medium-size quarterly macro-econometric model of the French economy (about 500 equations, three sectors). The model describes short-term Keynesian dynamics and its long-term equilibrium is driven by supply-side determinants. Its reestimation on data from the national accounts base 2000 with fixed-base volumes is presented in a recent working paper (Klein and Simon, 2010). This first version of the model has been optimized for simulation use. Other applications of the Mesange model (short-term forecasting, analyses of the past) required its adaptation to the published data from the quarterly accounts with chained-linked volumes, as well as the integration of the recent crisis episode. A second version of the Mesange model has, therefore, been developed for this purpose. This version is presented in this working paper. First, the problems raised for macroeconomic modelling by national accounts with chained-linked volumes are explained and the solutions chosen to adapt the model to these new conventions are discussed. The applications of the version of the model with chained-linked volumes are, then, explained and illustrated with examples. Last, the main reestimated equations are detailed. The differences with respect to the version of the model with fixed-base volumes are commented. They stem from estimations based on non-identical data, but also from the different uses made of the two versions of Mesange and the resulting various needs and constraints that have conditioned the methodological choices that have been made. As for the version of the model with chained-linked volumes, priority has been given to the quality of the adjustment to the data rather than to the underlying theoretical framework. Nonetheless, the philosophy and general structure of the two versions of the model remain very much alike.macroeconometric model, estimation, chained-linked volumes, short-term forecasting, contribution analysis

Slow dynamics and aging of a confined granular flow

We present experimental results on slow flow properties of a granular assembly confined in a vertical column and driven upwards at a constant velocity V. For monodisperse assemblies this study evidences at low velocities ($1<V<100 \mu m/s$) a stiffening behaviour i.e. the stress necessary to obtain a steady sate velocity increases roughly logarithmically with velocity. On the other hand, at very low driving velocity ($V<1 \mu m/s$), we evidence a discontinuous and hysteretic transition to a stick-slip regime characterized by a strong divergence of the maximal blockage force when the velocity goes to zero. We show that all this phenomenology is strongly influenced by surrounding humidity. We also present a tentative to establish a link between the granular rheology and the solid friction forces between the wall and the grains. We base our discussions on a simple theoretical model and independent grain/wall tribology measurements. We also use finite elements numerical simulations to confront experimental results to isotropic elasticity. A second system made of polydisperse assemblies of glass beads is investigated. We emphasize the onset of a new dynamical behavior, i.e. the large distribution of blockage forces evidenced in the stick-slip regime

Intergenerational inequalities since baby-boom

Cohorts born until the late 1940s benefited from a clear generational progress: from one generation to the next, the conditions for entering the labour market were more favourable, living standards increased regularly, access to education and homeownership was more common. These progresses strongly slowed down and even stopped, for generations born in the 1950s and 1960s. Early in their life course, the latter had to face the two oil shocks and the bad economic context that followed. The most recent generations are experiencing a mixed picture. Several years of good economic performance at the turn of the 2000s helped to increase again their standard of living in comparison to previous generations at the same age. Then, they benefited from low interest rates that facilitated again access to the property, despite rising property prices. However, this improvement appears to be very dependent on the macroeconomic environment, which can easily turn around. Inequalities between generations go together with inequalities within generations. In particular, access to employment is closely linked to educational level. Graduate people are more protected from unemployment and get a stable job more easily, but such an improvement is at the cost of a downgrading as regards wages and employment position. Non-graduates, meanwhile, are more dependent on economic conditions, not only at the end of their studies but also during the beginning of their careers. Finally, the fragility of this generational progress, and the increased importance of intergenerational transfers of wealth, could possibly lead to a widening of the gap between social classes or social origins. For instance, since the beginning of the 2000s, the access of younger generations to property has been improving again but the gap in property rates between social categories has been increasing.intergenerational inequalities, social inequalities, cohorts

Potential for an underwater glider component as part of the Global Ocean Observing System

The contributions of autonomous underwater gliders as an observing platform in the in-situ global ocean observing system (GOOS) are investigated. The assessment is done in two ways: First, the existing in-situ observing platforms contributing to GOOS (floats, surface drifters, moorings, research/commercial ships) are characterized in terms of their current capabilities in sampling key physical and bio-geochemical oceanic processes. Next the gliders’ capabilities are evaluated in the context of key applications. This includes an evaluation of 140 references presented in the peer-reviewed literature. It is found that GOOS has adequate coverage of sampling in the open ocean for several physical processes. There is a lack of data in the present GOOS in the transition regions between the open ocean and shelf seas. However, most of the documented scientific glider applications operate in this region, suggesting that a sustained glider component in the GOOS could fill that gap. Glider data are included for routine product generation (e.g. alerts, maps). Other noteworthy process-oriented applications where gliders are important survey tools include local sampling of the (sub)mesoscale, sampling in shallow coastal areas, measurements in hazardous environments, and operational monitoring. In most cases, the glider studies address investigations and monitoring of processes across multiple disciplines, making use of the ease to implement a wide range of sensors to gliders. The maturity of glider operations, the wide range of applications that map onto growing GOOS regional needs, and the maturity of glider data flow all justify the formal implementation of gliders into the GOOS. Remaining challenges include the execution of coordinated multinational missions in a sustained mode as well as considering capacity-building aspects in glider operations as well as glider data use