Modelling the dynamic interactions between food production and ecosystem services : a case study in Benin

Given the high levels of food insecurity and the loss of vital ecosystem services associated with deforestation, countries in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) face a major dilemma. How can they produce enough food in a changing climate to feed an increasing population while protecting natural forests and woodlands that provide a wide array of ecosystem services beneficial to livelihoods? Thus, the objectives of this thesis are twofold. First, to further enhance the understanding of the dynamic interactions between food production, and natural and semi-natural ecosystems with a case study in Benin. Second, to further enhance the understanding of how hydrological ecosystem services can be captured in an accounting framework. Understanding hydrological ecosystem services is key to understanding the multi-directional relationship between food production and ecosystem services supply from natural and semi-natural ecosystems. First, I examine how a spatially explicit ecohydrological model can be used to analyse multiple hydrological ecosystem services in line with the ecosystem accounting framework. The hydrological ecosystem services include crop water supply for rainfed agriculture, household water supply (both groundwater supply and surface water supply), water purification, and soil erosion control. Second, I develop a general modelling approach for analysing the effects of deforestation on the availability of water for irrigation at the watershed level, and I apply the approach to the Upper Oueme watershed in Benin. Third, I analyse the impact of climate change on agricultural intensification options. Finally, I quantify trade-offs between per capita food availability and protecting forests and woodlands at different levels of yield increases taking into account climate change, population growth. This thesis shows that the integration of hydrological ecosystem services into an accounting framework can provide relevant information at appropriate scales suitable for decision-making. It is empirically feasible to distinguish between service capacity and service flow of hydrological ecosystem services. This requires appropriate decisions regarding physical and mathematical representation of ecohydrological processes, spatial heterogeneity of ecosystems, temporal resolution, and required model accuracy. This thesis also shows that opportunities for irrigation expansion depend on conservation of forests and woodlands in the headwaters of the rivers feeding the irrigation scheme. Opportunities for agricultural intensification in SSA are likely to diminish with climate change, hence increasing pressure to expand cultivated areas in order to meet increasing food demand. Climate change will lead to substantial reductions in; exploitable yield gaps for major food crops, rainfed cropland areas that can support the cultivation of two or more crops per year, and water availability for irrigation expansion. Furthermore, in the far future crop yields will have to increase at a faster rate than has been recorded over the past two and half decades in order to maintain current levels of per capita food availability. Failure to achieve the required levels of yield increases is likely to lead to the conversion of substantial areas of forests and woodlands for crop cultivation. Based on the results of this thesis, four main recommendations to help address the dual challenge of food security and ecosystem protection in Benin and the larger SSA region are made: (i) promote a precautionary approach to forest and woodland conservation, (ii) promote cross-sectoral policy coherence and consultations, (iii) promote the development of satellite ecosystem accounts consistent with national accounts, and (iv) identify, evaluate and implement adaptation and resilience measures to reduce agricultural vulnerability to climate change.</p

Risk factors associated with the coexistence of stunting, underweight, and wasting in children under 5 from 31 sub-Saharan African countries.

OBJECTIVE: This study investigated the risk factors associated with the coexistence of stunting, underweight, and wasting among children under age 5 in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). DESIGN: Data of 127, 487 under-5 children from 31 countries in SSA were pooled from the Demographic and Health Surveys collected between 2010 and 2019. We examined the risk of coexistence of stunting, underweight, and wasting using multinomial logistic regression models. The results were presented using relative risk ratios (RRR) with corresponding confidence intervals (CIs). SETTING: Thirty-one sub-Saharan African countries. PARTICIPANTS: Children under age 5. OUTCOME MEASURES: The outcome variables were three child anthropometrics: stunting (height-for-age z-scores); underweight (weight-for-age z-scores) and wasting (weight-for-height z-scores). RESULTS: The prevalence of coexistence of stunting, underweight, and wasting varied across countries, with the highest (12.14%) and lowest (0.58%) prevalences of coexistence of stunting, underweight and wasting in Benin and Gambia respectively. The risk of coexistence of the three indicators of undernutrition was higher among children aged 1 year (RRR=3.714; 95% CI 3.319 to 4.156) compared with those aged 0. The risk of coexistence of the three dimensions was lower among female children (RRR=0.468 95% CI 0.420 to 0.51), but higher for those with small size at birth (RRR=3.818; CI 3.383 to 4.308), those whose mothers had no education (RRR=3.291; 95% CI 1.961 to 5.522), not working (RRR=1.195; 95% CI 1.086 to 1.314), had no antenatal visits during pregnancy (RRR=1.364; 95% CI 1.20 to 1.541), children delivered at home (RRR=1.372; CI 1.232 to 1.529), those from poor households (RRR=1.408; 95% CI 1.235 to 1.605), those whose mothers had no access to media (RRR=1.255; 95% CI 1.144 to 1.377) and living in households with an unimproved toilet facility (RRR=1.158; 95% CI 1.032 to 1.300). CONCLUSIONS: Findings suggest the urgent need for consideration of the coexistence of stunting, wasting and underweight among under-5 children in policy design and programming of interventions to eradicate child malnutrition in SSA. In the short-term, national-level policies and interventions need to be well tailored considering the compositional characteristics

Novel epigenetic network biomarkers for early detection of esophageal cancer

BACKGROUND: Early detection of esophageal cancer is critical to improve survival. Whilst studies have identified biomarkers, their interpretation and validity is often confounded by cell-type heterogeneity. RESULTS: Here we applied systems-epigenomic and cell-type deconvolution algorithms to a discovery set encompassing RNA-Seq and DNA methylation data from esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) patients and matched normal-adjacent tissue, in order to identify robust biomarkers, free from the confounding effect posed by cell-type heterogeneity. We identify 12 gene-modules that are epigenetically deregulated in EAC, and are able to validate all 12 modules in 4 independent EAC cohorts. We demonstrate that the epigenetic deregulation is present in the epithelial compartment of EAC-tissue. Using single-cell RNA-Seq data we show that one of these modules, a proto-cadherin module centered around CTNND2, is inactivated in Barrett's Esophagus, a precursor lesion to EAC. By measuring DNA methylation in saliva from EAC cases and controls, we identify a chemokine module centered around CCL20, whose methylation patterns in saliva correlate with EAC status. CONCLUSIONS: Given our observations that a CCL20 chemokine network is overactivated in EAC tissue and saliva from EAC patients, and that in independent studies CCL20 has been found to be overactivated in EAC tissue infected with the bacterium F. nucleatum, a bacterium that normally inhabits the oral cavity, our results highlight the possibility of using DNAm measurements in saliva as a proxy for changes occurring in the esophageal epithelium. Both the CTNND2/CCL20 modules represent novel promising network biomarkers for EAC that merit further investigation

A longitudinal comparison of emotional, behavioral and attention problems in autistic and typically developing children

Background Mental health problems are elevated in autistic individuals but there is limited evidence on the developmental course of problems across childhood. We compare the level and growth of anxious-depressed, behavioral and attention problems in an autistic and typically developing (TD) cohort. Methods Latent growth curve models were applied to repeated parent-report Child Behavior Checklist data from age 2–10 years in an inception cohort of autistic children (Pathways, N = 397; 84% boys) and a general population TD cohort (Wirral Child Health and Development Study; WCHADS; N = 884, 49% boys). Percentile plots were generated to quantify the differences between autistic and TD children. Results Autistic children showed elevated levels of mental health problems, but this was substantially reduced by accounting for IQ and sex differences between the autistic and TD samples. There was small differences in growth patterns; anxious-depressed problems were particularly elevated at preschool and attention problems at late childhood. Higher family income predicted lower base-level on all three dimensions, but steeper increase of anxious-depressed problems. Higher IQ predicted lower level of attention problems and faster decline over childhood. Female sex predicted higher level of anxious-depressed and faster decline in behavioral problems. Social-affect autism symptom severity predicted elevated level of attention problems. Autistic girls' problems were particularly elevated relative to their same-sex non-autistic peers. Conclusions Autistic children, and especially girls, show elevated mental health problems compared to TD children and there are some differences in predictors. Assessment of mental health should be integrated into clinical practice for autistic children

Evaluating Sex and Age Differences in ADI-R and ADOS Scores in a Large European Multi-site Sample of Individuals with Autism Spectrum Disorder

Research on sex-related differences in Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) has been impeded by small samples. We pooled 28 datasets from 18 sites across nine European countries to examine sex differences in the ASD phenotype on the ADI-R (376 females, 1763 males) and ADOS (233 females, 1187 males). On the ADI-R, early childhood restricted and repetitive behaviours were lower in females than males, alongside comparable levels of social interaction and communication difficulties in females and males. Current ADI-R and ADOS scores showed no sex differences for ASD severity. There were lower socio-communicative symptoms in older compared to younger individuals. This large European ASD sample adds to the literature on sex and age variations of ASD symptomatology

Establishing a protocol for building a pan-Canadian population-based monitoring system for early childhood development for children with health disorders: Canadian Children's Health in Context Study (CCHICS)

Introduction Health disorders early in life have tremendous impact on children's developmental trajectories. Almost 80% of children with health disorders lack the developmental skills to take full advantage of school-based education relative to 27% of children without a health disorder. In Canada, there is currently a dearth of nationally representative data on the social determinants of early childhood development for children with health disorders. Evidence from Canada and other countries indicate t

Social factors influencing child health in Ghana

Objectives Social factors have profound effects on health. Children are especially vulnerable to social influences, particularly in their early years. Adverse social exposures in childhood can lead to chronic disorders later in life. Here, we sought to identify and evaluate the impact of social factors on child health in Ghana. As Ghana is unlikely to achieve the Millennium Development Goals’ target of reducing child mortality by two-thirds between 1990 and 2015, we deemed it necessary to identify social determinants that might have contributed to the non-realisation of this goal. Methods ScienceDirect, PubMed, MEDLINE via EBSCO and Google Scholar were searched for published articles reporting on the influence of social factors on child health in Ghana. After screening the 98 articles identified, 34 of them that met our inclusion criteria were selected for qualitative review. Results Major social factors influencing child health in the country include maternal education, rural-urban disparities (place of residence), family income (wealth/poverty) and high dependency (multiparousity). These factors are associated with child mortality, nutritional status of children, completion of immunisation programmes, health-seeking behaviour and hygiene practices. Conclusions Several social factors influence child health outcomes in Ghana. Developing more effective responses to these social determinants would require sustainable efforts from all stakeholders including the Government, healthcare providers and families. We recommend the development of interventions that would support families through direct social support initiatives aimed at alleviating poverty and inequality, and indirect approaches targeted at eliminating the dependence of poor health outcomes on social factors. Importantly, the expansion of quality free education interventions to improve would-be-mother’s health knowledge is emphasised