Multi-hazard socio-physical resilience assessment of hurricane-induced hazards on coastal communities

Hurricane-induced hazards can result in significant damage to the built environment cascading into major impacts to the households, social institutions, and local economy. Although quantifying physical impacts of hurricane-induced hazards is essential for risk analysis, it is necessary but not sufficient for community resilience planning. While there have been several studies on hurricane risk and recovery assessment at the building- and community-level, few studies have focused on the nexus of coupled physical and social disruptions, particularly when characterizing recovery in the face of coastal multi-hazards. Therefore, this study presents an integrated approach to quantify the socio-physical disruption following hurricane-induced multi-hazards (e.g., wind, storm surge, wave) by considering the physical damage and functionality of the built environment along with the population dynamics over time. Specifically, high-resolution fragility models of buildings, and power and transportation infrastructures capture the combined impacts of hurricane loading on the built environment. Beyond simulating recovery by tracking infrastructure network performance metrics, such as access to essential facilities, this coupled socio-physical approach affords projection of post-hazard population dislocation and temporal evolution of housing and household recovery constrained by the building and infrastructure recovery. The results reveal the relative importance of multi-hazard consideration in the damage and recovery assessment of communities, along with the role of interdependent socio-physical system modeling when evaluating metrics such as housing recovery or the need for emergency shelter. Furthermore, the methodology presented here provides a foundation for resilience-informed decisions for coastal communities

Exotic states in a simple network of nanoelectromechanical oscillators.

Synchronization of oscillators, a phenomenon found in a wide variety of natural and engineered systems, is typically understood through a reduction to a first-order phase model with simplified dynamics. Here, by exploiting the precision and flexibility of nanoelectromechanical systems, we examined the dynamics of a ring of quasi-sinusoidal oscillators at and beyond first order. Beyond first order, we found exotic states of synchronization with highly complex dynamics, including weak chimeras, decoupled states, traveling waves, and inhomogeneous synchronized states. Through theory and experiment, we show that these exotic states rely on complex interactions emerging out of networks with simple linear nearest-neighbor coupling. This work provides insight into the dynamical richness of complex systems with weak nonlinearities and local interactions

Interdependent Response of Networked Systems to Natural Hazards and Intentional Disruptions

Critical infrastructure systems are essential for the continuous functionality of modern global societies. Some examples of these systems include electric energy, potable water, oil and gas, telecommunications, and the internet. Different topologies underline the structure of these networked systems. Each topology (i.e., physical layout) conditions the way in which networks transmit and distribute their flow. Also, their ability to absorb unforeseen natural or intentional disruptions depends on complex relations between network topology and optimal flow patterns. Most of the current research on large networks is focused on understanding their properties using statistical physics, or on developing advanced models to capture network dynamics. Despite these important research efforts, almost all studies concentrate on specific networks. This network-specific approach rules out a fundamental phenomenon that may jeopardize the performance predictions of current sophisticated models: network response is in general interdependent, and its performance is conditioned on the performance of additional interacting networks. Although there are recent conceptual advances in network interdependencies, current studies address the problem from a high-level point of view. For instance, they discuss the problem at the macro-level of interacting industries, or utilize economic input-output models to capture entire infrastructure interactions. This study approaches the problem of network interdependence from a more fundamental level. It focuses on network topology, flow patterns within the networks, and optimal interdependent system performance. This approach also allows for probabilistic response characterization of interdependent networked systems when subjected to disturbances of internal nature (e.g., aging, malfunctioning) or disruptions of external nature (e.g., coordinated attacks, seismic hazards). The methods proposed in this study can identify the role that each network element has in maintaining interdependent network connectivity and optimal flow. This information is used in the selection of effective pre-disaster mitigation and post-disaster recovery actions. Results of this research also provide guides for growth of interacting infrastructure networks and reveal new areas for research on interdependent dynamics. Finally, the algorithmic structure of the proposed methods suggests straightforward implementation of interdependent analysis in advanced computer software applications for multi-hazard loss estimation.Ph.D.Committee Chair: Goodno, Barry J.; Committee Co-Chair: Craig, James I.; Committee Member: Bostrom, Ann; Committee Member: DesRoches, Reginald; Committee Member: Ellingwood, Bruce R.; Committee Member: Kishi, Nozar G

Rapid Assessment of Fragilities for Collections of Buildings and Geostructures

This report describes the results of research to develop a way to rapidly assess the fragility of structures and geostructures over a specified region. Structural performance under future earthquakes cannot be predicted with certainty. This is primarily due to the fact that an earthquake is a random phenomenon in nature, but another source of uncertainty comes from the structures themselves. For an individual structure or geostructure, the uncertainty arises largely from material properties and construction methods, but for a collection of structures whose individual characteristics are not known, additional uncertainty arises from macro-level parameters such as structural type, base planform, orientation, as well as vertical and planform irregularities, and the applicable design codes. Since detailed analysis of each structure or geostructure in the collection is impractical, this report addresses the problem by developing a methodology based on the use of computationally efficient metamodels to represent the overall structural behavior of the collection. In particular, response surface metamodels are developed using a Design of Experiments approach to select the most influential parameters. Monte Carlo simulation is carried out using probability distributions for the parameters that are characteristic of the target collection of structures or geostructures, and the fragility of the collection is estimated from the computed responses.National Science Foundation EEC-9701785published or submitted for publicatio

Counting-Based Reliability Estimation for Power-Transmission Grids

Modern society is increasingly reliant on the functionality of infrastructure facilities and utility services. Consequently, there has been surge of interest in the problem of quantification of system reliability, which is known to be #P-complete. Reliability also contributes to the resilience of systems, so as to effectively make them bounce back after contingencies. Despite diverse progress, most techniques to estimate system reliability and resilience remain computationally expensive. In this paper, we investigate how recent advances in hashing-based approaches to counting can be exploited to improve computational techniques for system reliability.The primary contribution of this paper is a novel framework, RelNet, that reduces the problem of computing reliability for a given network to counting the number of satisfying assignments of a Σ11 formula, which is amenable to recent hashing-based techniques developed for counting satisfying assignments of SAT formula. We then apply RelNet to ten real world power-transmission grids across different cities in the U.S. and are able to obtain, to the best of our knowledge, the first theoretically sound a priori estimates of reliability between several pairs of nodes of interest. Such estimates will help managing uncertainty and support rational decision making for community resilience