A Value Function Approach to Information Operations MOE\u27s: A Preliminary Study

A value focused thinking approach is applied to information operations. A preliminary value hierarchy for information operations is constructed by extracting the values of senior military leadership from existing doctrine. To identify these key values for information operations, applicable existing doctrine was reviewed and summarized. Additionally, hierarchical representations of the values represented within each reviewed doctrine are developed. A value hierarchy requires that supporting objectives be mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive. Within this analysis, these requirements are enforced, in part, by developed definitions which serve as tests to maintain mutual exclusivity. An exhaustive set of supporting values is also guaranteed by identifying a spanning set of values that directly support the overall objective of information operations. This preliminary value hierarchy serves as the basis for continuing research. The implications for this research include the construction of a prescriptive model in which the effectiveness of current and future systems can be assessed on a common scale. Further, the effectiveness of developing technologies can be assessed and the value of these technologies determined with respect to the values of senior military leadership. With this, the value of holes in our suite of information warfare systems can also be assessed in terms of their effectiveness in fulfilling the values of military leadership

Nonthermal Hard X-ray Emission and Iron Kalpha Emission from a Superflare on II Pegasi

We report on an X-ray flare detected on the active binary system II~Pegasi with the Swift telescope. The trigger had a 10-200 keV luminosity of 2.2$\times10^{32}$ erg s$^{-1}$-- a superflare, by comparison with energies of typical stellar flares on active binary systems. The trigger spectrum indicates a hot thermal plasma with T$\sim$180 $\times10^{6}$K. X-ray spectral analysis from 0.8--200 keV with the X-Ray Telescope and BAT in the next two orbits reveals evidence for a thermal component (T$>$80 $\times10^{6}$K) and Fe K 6.4 keV emission. A tail of emission out to 200 keV can be fit with either an extremely high temperature thermal plasma (T$\sim3\times10^{8}$K) or power-law emission. Based on analogies with solar flares, we attribute the excess continuum emission to nonthermal thick-target bremsstrahlung emission from a population of accelerated electrons. We estimate the radiated energy from 0.01--200 keV to be $\sim6\times10^{36}$ erg, the total radiated energy over all wavelengths $\sim10^{38}$ erg, the energy in nonthermal electrons above 20 keV $\sim3\times10^{40}$ erg, and conducted energy $<5\times10^{43}$ erg. The nonthermal interpretation gives a reasonable value for the total energy in electrons $>$ 20 keV when compared to the upper and lower bounds on the thermal energy content of the flare. This marks the first occasion in which evidence exists for nonthermal hard X-ray emission from a stellar flare. We investigate the emission mechanism responsible for producing the 6.4 keV feature, and find that collisional ionization from nonthermal electrons appears to be more plausible than the photoionization mechanism usually invoked on the Sun and pre-main sequence stars.Comment: 41 pages, 7 figures, accepted for publication in the Astrophysical Journa

Predicting progression of mild cognitive impairment to dementia using neuropsychological data: a supervised learning approach using time windows

Background: Predicting progression from a stage of Mild Cognitive Impairment to dementia is a major pursuit in current research. It is broadly accepted that cognition declines with a continuum between MCI and dementia. As such, cohorts of MCI patients are usually heterogeneous, containing patients at different stages of the neurodegenerative process. This hampers the prognostic task. Nevertheless, when learning prognostic models, most studies use the entire cohort of MCI patients regardless of their disease stages. In this paper, we propose a Time Windows approach to predict conversion to dementia, learning with patients stratified using time windows, thus fine-tuning the prognosis regarding the time to conversion. Methods: In the proposed Time Windows approach, we grouped patients based on the clinical information of whether they converted (converter MCI) or remained MCI (stable MCI) within a specific time window. We tested time windows of 2, 3, 4 and 5 years. We developed a prognostic model for each time window using clinical and neuropsychological data and compared this approach with the commonly used in the literature, where all patients are used to learn the models, named as First Last approach. This enables to move from the traditional question "Will a MCI patient convert to dementia somewhere in the future" to the question "Will a MCI patient convert to dementia in a specific time window". Results: The proposed Time Windows approach outperformed the First Last approach. The results showed that we can predict conversion to dementia as early as 5 years before the event with an AUC of 0.88 in the cross-validation set and 0.76 in an independent validation set. Conclusions: Prognostic models using time windows have higher performance when predicting progression from MCI to dementia, when compared to the prognostic approach commonly used in the literature. Furthermore, the proposed Time Windows approach is more relevant from a clinical point of view, predicting conversion within a temporal interval rather than sometime in the future and allowing clinicians to timely adjust treatments and clinical appointments.FCT under the Neuroclinomics2 project [PTDC/EEI-SII/1937/2014, SFRH/BD/95846/2013]; INESC-ID plurianual [UID/CEC/50021/2013]; LASIGE Research Unit [UID/CEC/00408/2013

Kepler-16: A Transiting Circumbinary Planet

We report the detection of a planet whose orbit surrounds a pair of low-mass stars. Data from the Kepler spacecraft reveal transits of the planet across both stars, in addition to the mutual eclipses of the stars, giving precise constraints on the absolute dimensions of all three bodies. The planet is comparable to Saturn in mass and size, and is on a nearly circular 229-day orbit around its two parent stars. The eclipsing stars are 20% and 69% as massive as the sun, and have an eccentric 41-day orbit. The motions of all three bodies are confined to within 0.5 degree of a single plane, suggesting that the planet formed within a circumbinary disk.Comment: Science, in press; for supplemental material see http://www.sciencemag.org/content/suppl/2011/09/14/333.6049.1602.DC1/1210923.Doyle.SOM.pd

Characteristics of Kepler Planetary Candidates Based on the First Data Set: The Majority are Found to be Neptune-Size and Smaller

In the spring of 2009, the Kepler Mission commenced high-precision photometry on nearly 156,000 stars to determine the frequency and characteristics of small exoplanets, conduct a guest observer program, and obtain asteroseismic data on a wide variety of stars. On 15 June 2010 the Kepler Mission released data from the first quarter of observations. At the time of this publication, 706 stars from this first data set have exoplanet candidates with sizes from as small as that of the Earth to larger than that of Jupiter. Here we give the identity and characteristics of 306 released stars with planetary candidates. Data for the remaining 400 stars with planetary candidates will be released in February 2011. Over half the candidates on the released list have radii less than half that of Jupiter. The released stars include five possible multi-planet systems. One of these has two Neptune-size (2.3 and 2.5 Earth-radius) candidates with near-resonant periods.Comment: Paper to accompany Kepler's June 15, 2010 data release; submitted to Astrophysical Journal Figures 1,2,& 3 revised. Improved labeling on all figures. Slight changes to planet frequencies in result

Planetary Candidates Observed by Kepler. VIII. A Fully Automated Catalog With Measured Completeness and Reliability Based on Data Release 25

We present the Kepler Object of Interest (KOI) catalog of transiting exoplanets based on searching four years of Kepler time series photometry (Data Release 25, Q1-Q17). The catalog contains 8054 KOIs of which 4034 are planet candidates with periods between 0.25 and 632 days. Of these candidates, 219 are new and include two in multi-planet systems (KOI-82.06 and KOI-2926.05), and ten high-reliability, terrestrial-size, habitable zone candidates. This catalog was created using a tool called the Robovetter which automatically vets the DR25 Threshold Crossing Events (TCEs, Twicken et al. 2016). The Robovetter also vetted simulated data sets and measured how well it was able to separate TCEs caused by noise from those caused by low signal-to-noise transits. We discusses the Robovetter and the metrics it uses to sort TCEs. For orbital periods less than 100 days the Robovetter completeness (the fraction of simulated transits that are determined to be planet candidates) across all observed stars is greater than 85%. For the same period range, the catalog reliability (the fraction of candidates that are not due to instrumental or stellar noise) is greater than 98%. However, for low signal-to-noise candidates between 200 and 500 days around FGK dwarf stars, the Robovetter is 76.7% complete and the catalog is 50.5% reliable. The KOI catalog, the transit fits and all of the simulated data used to characterize this catalog are available at the NASA Exoplanet Archive.Comment: 61 pages, 23 Figures, 9 Tables, Accepted to The Astrophysical Journal Supplement Serie

Planetary Candidates Observed by Kepler, III: Analysis of the First 16 Months of Data

New transiting planet candidates are identified in sixteen months (May 2009 - September 2010) of data from the Kepler spacecraft. Nearly five thousand periodic transit-like signals are vetted against astrophysical and instrumental false positives yielding 1,091 viable new planet candidates, bringing the total count up to over 2,300. Improved vetting metrics are employed, contributing to higher catalog reliability. Most notable is the noise-weighted robust averaging of multi-quarter photo-center offsets derived from difference image analysis which identifies likely background eclipsing binaries. Twenty-two months of photometry are used for the purpose of characterizing each of the new candidates. Ephemerides (transit epoch, T_0, and orbital period, P) are tabulated as well as the products of light curve modeling: reduced radius (Rp/R*), reduced semi-major axis (d/R*), and impact parameter (b). The largest fractional increases are seen for the smallest planet candidates (197% for candidates smaller than 2Re compared to 52% for candidates larger than 2Re) and those at longer orbital periods (123% for candidates outside of 50-day orbits versus 85% for candidates inside of 50-day orbits). The gains are larger than expected from increasing the observing window from thirteen months (Quarter 1-- Quarter 5) to sixteen months (Quarter 1 -- Quarter 6). This demonstrates the benefit of continued development of pipeline analysis software. The fraction of all host stars with multiple candidates has grown from 17% to 20%, and the paucity of short-period giant planets in multiple systems is still evident. The progression toward smaller planets at longer orbital periods with each new catalog release suggests that Earth-size planets in the Habitable Zone are forthcoming if, indeed, such planets are abundant.Comment: Submitted to ApJS. Machine-readable tables are available at http://kepler.nasa.gov, http://archive.stsci.edu/kepler/results.html, and the NASA Exoplanet Archiv

Improved diagnosis of SARS-CoV-2 by using nucleoprotein and spike protein fragment 2 in quantitative dual ELISA tests

The novel coronavirus, severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2), is the causative agent of the 2020 worldwide coronavirus pandemic. Antibody testing is useful for diagnosing historic infections of a disease in a population. These tests are also a helpful epidemiological tool for predicting how the virus spreads in a community, relating antibody levels to immunity and for assessing herd immunity. In the present study, SARS-CoV-2 viral proteins were recombinantly produced and used to analyse serum from individuals previously exposed, or not, to SARS-CoV-2. The nucleocapsid (Npro) and spike subunit 2 (S2Frag) proteins were identified as highly immunogenic, although responses to the former were generally greater. These two proteins were used to develop two quantitative enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISAs) that when used in combination resulted in a highly reliable diagnostic test. Npro and S2Frag-ELISAs could detect at least 10% more true positive coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) cases than the commercially available ARCHITECT test (Abbott). Moreover, our quantitative ELISAs also show that specific antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 proteins tend to wane rapidly even in patients who had developed severe disease. As antibody tests complement COVID-19 diagnosis and determine population-level surveillance during this pandemic, the alternative diagnostic we present in this study could play a role in controlling the spread of the virus

MAGE I Transcription Factors Regulate KAP1 and KRAB Domain Zinc Finger Transcription Factor Mediated Gene Repression

Class I MAGE proteins (MAGE I) are normally expressed only in developing germ cells but are aberrantly expressed in many cancers. They have been shown to promote tumor survival, aggressive growth, and chemoresistance but the underlying mechanisms and MAGE I functions have not been fully elucidated. KRAB domain zinc finger transcription factors (KZNFs) are the largest group of vertebrate transcription factors and regulate neoplastic transformation, tumor suppression, cellular proliferation, and apoptosis. KZNFs bind the KAP1 protein and direct KAP1 to specific DNA sequences where it suppresses gene expression by inducing localized heterochromatin characterized by histone 3 lysine 9 trimethylation (H3me3K9). Discovery that MAGE I proteins also bind to KAP1 prompted us to investigate whether MAGE I can affect KZNF and KAP1 mediated gene regulation. We found that expression of MAGE I proteins, MAGE-A3 or MAGE-C2, relieved repression of a reporter gene by ZNF382, a KZNF with tumor suppressor activity. ChIP of MAGE I (-) HEK293T cells showed KAP1 and H3me3K9 are normally bound to the ID1 gene, a target of ZNF382, but that binding is greatly reduced in the presence of MAGE I proteins. MAGE I expression relieved KAP1 mediated ID1 repression, causing increased expression of ID1 mRNA and ID1 chromatin relaxation characterized by loss of H3me3K9. MAGE I binding to KAP1 also induced ZNF382 poly-ubiquitination and degradation, consistent with loss of ZNF382 leading to decreased KAP1 binding to ID1. In contrast, MAGE I expression caused increased KAP1 binding to Ki67, another KAP1 target gene, with increased H3me3K9 and decreased Ki67 mRNA expression. Since KZNFs are required to direct KAP1 to specific genes, these results show that MAGE I proteins can differentially regulate members of the KZNF family and KAP1 mediated gene repression