Coronal Magnetic Field Evolution from 1996 to 2012: Continuous Non-potential Simulations

Coupled flux transport and magneto-frictional simulations are extended to simulate the continuous magnetic-field evolution in the global solar corona for over 15 years, from the start of Solar Cycle 23 in 1996. By simplifying the dynamics, our model follows the build-up and transport of electric currents and free magnetic energy in the corona, offering an insight into the magnetic structure and topology that extrapolation-based models cannot. To enable these extended simulations, we have implemented a more efficient numerical grid, and have carefully calibrated the surface flux-transport model to reproduce the observed large-scale photospheric radial magnetic field, using emerging active regions determined from observed line-of-sight magnetograms. This calibration is described in some detail. In agreement with previous authors, we find that the standard flux-transport model is insufficient to simultaneously reproduce the observed polar fields and butterfly diagram during Cycle 23, and that additional effects must be added. For the best-fit model, we use automated techniques to detect the latitude–time profile of flux ropes and their ejections over the full solar cycle. Overall, flux ropes are more prevalent outside of active latitudes but those at active latitudes are more frequently ejected. Future possibilities for space-weather prediction with this approach are briefly assessed

Glaciovolcanic hydrothermal environments in Iceland and implications for their detection on Mars

Volcanism has been a dominant process on Mars, along with a pervasive global cryosphere. Therefore, the interaction between these two is considered likely. Terrestrial glaciovolcanism produces distinctive lithologies and alteration terrains, as well as hydrothermal environments that can be inhabited by microorganisms. Here, we provide a framework for identifying evidence of such glaciovolcanic environments during future Mars exploration, and provide a descriptive reference for active hydrothermal environments to be utilised for future astrobiological studies. Remote sensing data were combined with field observations and sample analysis that included X-ray diffraction, Raman spectroscopy, thin section petrography, scanning electron microscopy, electron dispersive spectrometer analysis, and dissolved water chemistry to characterise samples from two areas of basaltic glaciovolcanism: Askja and Kverkfjöll volcanoes in Iceland. The glaciovolcanic terrain between these volcanoes is characterised by subglacially-erupted fissure swarm ridges, which have since been modified by multiple glacial outburst floods. Active hydrothermal environments at Kverkfjöll include hot springs, anoxic pools, glacial meltwater lakes, and sulfur- and iron- depositing fumaroles, all situated within ice-bound geothermal fields. Temperatures range from 0 °C - 94.4 °C, and aqueous environments are acidic - neutral (pH 2 - 7.5) and sulfate-dominated. Mineralogy of sediments, mineral crusts, and secondary deposits within basalts suggest two types of hydrothermal alteration: a low-temperature ( 120 °C) assemblage signified by zeolite (heulandite) and quartz. These mineral assemblages are consistent with those identified at the Martian surface. In-situ and laboratory VNIR (440 – 1000 nm) reflectance spectra representative of Mars rover multispectral imaging show sediment spectral profiles to be influenced by Fe2 +/3 + - bearing minerals, regardless of their dominant bulk mineralogy. Characterising these terrestrial glaciovolcanic deposits can help identify similar processes on Mars, as well as identifying palaeoenvironments that may once have supported and preserved life

The Origin, Early Evolution and Predictability of Solar Eruptions

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were discovered in the early 1970s when space-borne coronagraphs revealed that eruptions of plasma are ejected from the Sun. Today, it is known that the Sun produces eruptive flares, filament eruptions, coronal mass ejections and failed eruptions; all thought to be due to a release of energy stored in the coronal magnetic field during its drastic reconfiguration. This review discusses the observations and physical mechanisms behind this eruptive activity, with a view to making an assessment of the current capability of forecasting these events for space weather risk and impact mitigation. Whilst a wealth of observations exist, and detailed models have been developed, there still exists a need to draw these approaches together. In particular more realistic models are encouraged in order to asses the full range of complexity of the solar atmosphere and the criteria for which an eruption is formed. From the observational side, a more detailed understanding of the role of photospheric flows and reconnection is needed in order to identify the evolutionary path that ultimately means a magnetic structure will erupt

'Fear and loathing across party lines' (also) in Europe : affective polarisation in European party systems

First published online: 22 July 2019Several scholars in the United States have recently addressed an increased partisan animosity between Democrats and Republicans, and have termed this phenomenon ‘affective polarisation’. This surge in partisan affective polarisation is perceived to be highly problematic, as it has been found to have a negative impact on the functioning of the party system and even society at large. The aim of this article is to study the concept of affective polarisation in European party systems. It introduces the Affective Polarisation Index (API) that allows for measuring and comparing levels of affective polarisation also in multiparty systems. This novel measure is applied to 22 European democracies and the United States between 2005 and 2016. The results indicate that affective polarisation is acutely present in European party systems, as partisans are often extremely hostile towards competing parties. The most affectively polarised countries are in Central Eastern and Southern Europe where the degree of affective polarisation is notably higher than it is in the United States, while Northwestern European countries are more moderate in terms of partisan feelings. Further analysis reveals that affective polarisation is significantly correlated with ideological polarisation, but the relationship between the two appears to be conditional: in some Western European political systems ideological polarisation does not lead itself to strong interparty hostility, while in Central Eastern Europe a high degree of affective polarisation can be present even in ideologically centrist party structures. These findings validate the claim that ideological and affective polarisation are two distinct aspects of polarisation, and that the latter also merits additional attention