Retrospective Evaluation of the Five-Year and Ten-Year CSEP-Italy Earthquake Forecasts

On 1 August 2009, the global Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) launched a prospective and comparative earthquake predictability experiment in Italy. The goal of the CSEP-Italy experiment is to test earthquake occurrence hypotheses that have been formalized as probabilistic earthquake forecasts over temporal scales that range from days to years. In the first round of forecast submissions, members of the CSEP-Italy Working Group presented eighteen five-year and ten-year earthquake forecasts to the European CSEP Testing Center at ETH Zurich. We considered the twelve time-independent earthquake forecasts among this set and evaluated them with respect to past seismicity data from two Italian earthquake catalogs. In this article, we present the results of tests that measure the consistency of the forecasts with the past observations. Besides being an evaluation of the submitted time-independent forecasts, this exercise provided insight into a number of important issues in predictability experiments with regard to the specification of the forecasts, the performance of the tests, and the trade-off between the robustness of results and experiment duration. We conclude with suggestions for the future design of earthquake predictability experiments.Comment: 43 pages, 8 figures, 4 table

Boundary Rings and N=2 Coset Models

We investigate boundary states of N=2 coset models based on Grassmannians Gr(n,n+k), and find that the underlying intersection geometry is given by the fusion ring of U(n). This is isomorphic to the quantum cohomology ring of Gr(n,n+k+1), and thus can be encoded in a ``boundary'' superpotential whose critical points correspond to the boundary states. In this way the intersection properties can be represented in terms of a soliton graph that forms a generalized, Z_{n+k+1} symmetric McKay quiver. We investigate the spectrum of bound states and find that the rational boundary CFT produces only a small subset of the possible quiver representations.Comment: 40p, 5 figs, refs added, typos and minor errors correcte

Agricultural climate change mitigation : Carbon calculators as a guide for decision making

This is an Accepted Manuscript of an article published by Taylor & Francis Group in International Journal of Agricultural Sustainability on 9 November 2017, available online: https://doi.org/10.1080/14735903.2017.1398628. Under embargo. Embargo end date: 9 November 2018.The dairy industry is receiving considerable attention in relation to both its significant greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and it’s potential for reducing those emissions, contributing towards meeting national targets and driving the industry towards sustainable intensification. However, the extent to which improvements can be made is dependent on the decision making processes of individual producers, so there has been a proliferation of carbon accounting tools seeking to influence those processes. This paper evaluates the suitability of such tools for driving environmental change by influencing on-farm management decisions. Seven tools suitable for the European dairy industry were identified, their characteristics evaluated, and used to process data relating to six scenario farms, emulating process undertaken in real farm management situations. As a result of the range of approaches taken by the tools, there was limited agreement between them as to GHG emissions magnitude, and no consistent pattern as to which tools resulted in the highest/lowest results. Despite this it is argued, that as there was agreement as to the farm activities responsible for the greatest emissions, the more complex tools were still capable of performing a ‘decision support’ role, and guiding management decisions, whilst others could merely focus attention on key issues.Peer reviewe

On the Connection between N=2 Minimal String and (1,n) Bosonic Minimal String

We study the scattering amplitudes in the N=2 minimal string or equivalently in the N=4 topological string on ALE spaces. We find an interesting connection between the tree level amplitudes of the N=2 minimal string and those of the (1,n) minimal bosonic string. In particular we show that the four and five-point functions of the N=2 string can be directly rewritten in terms of those of the latter theory. This relation offers a map of physical states between these two string theories. Finally we propose a possible matrix model dual for the N=2 minimal string in the light of this connection.Comment: 40 pages, one figure, harvmac, minor corrections, references adde

Changes in Bone Turnover Marker Levels and Clinical Outcomes in Patients With Advanced Cancer and Bone Metastases Treated With Bone Antiresorptive Agents

Purpose: Bone antiresorptive agents can significantly reduce bone turnover markers (BTMs) in patients with advanced cancer. We evaluated association of changes in BTMs with overall survival (OS), disease progression (DP), and disease progression in bone (DPB) in patients with advanced cancer and bone metastases following denosumab or zoledronic acid treatment. Experimental Design: This is an integrated analysis of patient-level data from three identically designed, blinded, phase III trials with patients randomized to subcutaneous denosumab or intravenous zoledronic acid. Levels of the BTMs urinary N-telopeptide (uNTx) and serum bone-specific alkaline phosphatase (sBSAP) measured at study entry and month 3 were analyzed. OS, DP, and DPB were compared in patients with BTMs {greater than or equal to} median vs < median based on month 3 assessments. Results: uNTx levels {greater than or equal to} the median of 10.0 nmol/mmol at month 3 were associated with significantly reduced OS compared with levels < median (HR for death 1.85, P<0.0001). sBSAP levels {greater than or equal to} median of 12.6 ng/mL were associated with significantly reduced OS compared with levels < median (HR 2.44, P<0.0001). uNTx and sBSAP levels {greater than or equal to} median at month 3 were associated with significantly greater risk of DP (HR 1.31, P<0.0001 and HR 1.71, P<0.0001, respectively) and DPB (HR 1.11, P=0.0407 and HR 1.27, P<0.0001, respectively). Conclusions: BTM levels {greater than or equal to} median after 3 months of bone antiresorptive treatment were associated with reduced OS and increased risk of DP and DPB. Assessment of uNTx and sBSAP levels after bone antiresorptive therapy may add to identification of patients at risk for worse clinical outcomes

A descriptive study of UK cancer genetics services: an emerging clinical response to the new genetics

The objective was to describe NHS cancer genetic counselling services and compare UK regions. The study design was a cross-sectional study over 4 weeks and attendee survey. The setting was 22 of the 24 regional cancer genetics services in the UK NHS. Participants were individuals aged over 18 attending clinics at these services. Outcome measures were staff levels, referral rates, consultation rates, follow-up plans, waiting time. There were only 11 dedicated cancer geneticists across the 22 centres. Referrals were mainly concerned with breast (63%), bowel (18%) and ovarian (12%) cancers. Only 7% of referrals were for men and 3% were for individuals from ethnic minorities. Referral rates varied from 76 to 410 per million per annum across the regions. Median waiting time for an initial appointment was 19 weeks, ranging across regions from 4 to 53 weeks. Individuals at population-level genetic risk accounted for 27% of consultations (range 0%, 58%). Shortfalls in cancer genetics staff and in the provision of genetic testing and cancer surveillance have resulted in large regional variations in access to care. Initiatives to disseminate referral and management guidelines to cancer units and primary care should be adequately resourced so that clinical genetics teams can focus on the genetic testing and management of high-risk families. © 2001 Cancer Research Campaign http://www.bjcancer.co

The matrix factorisations of the D-model

The fundamental matrix factorisations of the D-model superpotential are found and identified with the boundary states of the corresponding conformal field theory. The analysis is performed for both GSO-projections. We also comment on the relation of this analysis to the theory of surface singularities and their orbifold description.Comment: 23 pages, LaTe