Realized Volatility and Correlation in Grain Futures Markets: Testing for Spill-Over Effects

Fluctuations in commodity prices are a major concern to many market participants. This paper uses realized volatility methods to calculate daily volatility and correlation estimates for three grain futures prices (corn, soybean and wheat). The realized volatility estimates exhibit the properties consistent with the stylized facts observed in earlier studies. According to the realized correlations and regression coefficients, the spot returns from the three grain futures are positively related. The realized estimates are then used to evaluate the degree of volatility transmissions across grain future prices. The impulse response analysis is conducted by fitting the vector autoregressive model to realized volatility and correlation estimates, using the bootstrap method for statistical inference. The results indicate that there exist rich dynamic interactions among the volatilities and correlations across the grain futures markets.Volatility Transmission, Vector Autoregressive Model, Impulse Response Analysis, Bootstrap

Top Management Team Diversity: A systematic Review

Empirical research investigating the impact of top management team (TMT) diversity on executives’ decision making has produced inconclusive results. To synthesize and aggregate the results on the diversity-performance link, a meta-regression analysis (MRA) is conducted. It integrates more than 200 estimates from 53 empirical studies investigating TMT diversity and its impact on the quality of executives’ decision making as reflected in corporate performance. The analysis contributes to the literature by theoretically discussing and empirically examining the effects of TMT diversity on corporate performance. Our results do not show a link between TMT diversity and performance but provide evidence for publication bias. Thus, the findings raise doubts on the impact of TMT diversity on performance

Using fuzzy PROMETHEE to select countries for developmental Aid

Wealthy nations continue to demonstrate their unwavering support to improving conditions and the general well-being of poor countries in spite of the recent economic crises. However, as developmental aid relatively shrinks, both Aid donors and recipient countries have shown keen interest in methodologies used in evaluating developmental assistance programs. Evaluation of aid programs is seen as a complex task mainly because of the several non-aid factors that tend to affect overall outcomes. Adding to the complexity are the subjective sets of criteria used in Aid evaluations programs. This paper proposes a two stage framework of fuzzy TOPSIS and sensitivity analysis to demonstrate how aid-recipient countries can be evaluated to deepen transparency, fairness, value for money and sustainability of such aid programs. Using the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) set of subjective criteria for evaluating aid programs; a numerical examplepre-defined by linguistic terms parameterized by triangular fuzzy numbers is provided to evaluate aid programs. Fuzzy PROMETHEE is used in the first stage to evaluate and rank aid-recipients followed by a comparative analysis with Fuzzy VIKOR and Fuzzy TOPSIS to ascertain an accurateness of the method used. A sensitivity analysis is further added that anticipates possible influences from lobbyists and examines the effect of that bias in expert ratings on the evaluation process. The result shows a framework that can be employed in evaluating aid effectiveness of recipient-countries

Governance or Poverty Reduction? Assessing Budget Support in Nicaragua

__Abstract__ General Budget Support (GBS) is assumed to lead to more effective poverty reduction through non-earmarking of the money and through recipient country ownership. A second and more hidden objective of GBS, however, is to influence policies and governance of recipient countries. This paper develops an evaluation framework that takes the tensions between these two objectives into account. It then assesses the results of GBS in Nicaragua under two administrations. It concludes that for most donors, the aim of improving governance was more important than poverty reduction, in both government periods, thus reducing the effect of GBS on poverty reduction. In addition, donor influence on governance was limited

Is Transition Experience Enough? The Donor-side Effectiveness of Czech and Polish Democracy Aid to Georgia

The paper examines the democracy aid practices of the Czech Republic and Poland in Georgia. These two countries have recently emerged as promoters of democracy, and have argued that their own transition experience puts them in a unique position to support democratization and the consolidation of democracy in the EU’s Eastern Neighbourhood. The paper evaluates how these two countries provide democracy aid to Georgia along three criteria, derived from the aid effectiveness literature: supporting locally driven change, learning from results and coordination. The results indicate that both countries have plenty of space to improve the way their democracy aid is delivered. Neither country has formal systems in place to ensure that they actually support Georgian priorities; evaluations are ad hoc and feedback loops missing; and there is significant scope to improve coordination with other donors. Nonetheless, there seems to be a general perception among stakeholders that the democracy aid provided by the Czech Republic and Poland is relevant to Georgia’s needs

Cosmological Constraints from Galaxy Clusters in the 2500 square-degree SPT-SZ Survey

(abridged) We present cosmological constraints obtained from galaxy clusters identified by their Sunyaev-Zel'dovich effect signature in the 2500 square degree South Pole Telescope Sunyaev Zel'dovich survey. We consider the 377 cluster candidates identified at z>0.25 with a detection significance greater than five, corresponding to the 95% purity threshold for the survey. We compute constraints on cosmological models using the measured cluster abundance as a function of mass and redshift. We include additional constraints from multi-wavelength observations, including Chandra X-ray data for 82 clusters and a weak lensing-based prior on the normalization of the mass-observable scaling relations. Assuming a LCDM cosmology, where the species-summed neutrino mass has the minimum allowed value (mnu = 0.06 eV) from neutrino oscillation experiments, we combine the cluster data with a prior on H0 and find sigma_8 = 0.797+-0.031 and Omega_m = 0.289+-0.042, with the parameter combination sigma_8(Omega_m/0.27)^0.3 = 0.784+-0.039. These results are in good agreement with constraints from the CMB from SPT, WMAP, and Planck, as well as with constraints from other cluster datasets. Adding mnu as a free parameter, we find mnu = 0.14+-0.08 eV when combining the SPT cluster data with Planck CMB data and BAO data, consistent with the minimum allowed value. Finally, we consider a cosmology where mnu and N_eff are fixed to the LCDM values, but the dark energy equation of state parameter w is free. Using the SPT cluster data in combination with an H0 prior, we measure w = -1.28+-0.31, a constraint consistent with the LCDM cosmological model and derived from the combination of growth of structure and geometry. When combined with primarily geometrical constraints from Planck CMB, H0, BAO and SNe, adding the SPT cluster data improves the w constraint from the geometrical data alone by 14%, to w = -1.023+-0.042

Worker remittances and the global preconditions of ‘smart development’

With the growing environmental crisis affecting our globe, ideas to weigh economic or social progress by the ‘energy input’ necessary to achieve it are increasingly gaining acceptance. This question is intriguing and is being dealt with by a growing number of studies, focusing on the environmental price of human progress. Even more intriguing, however, is the question of which factors of social organization contribute to a responsible use of the resources of our planet to achieve a given social result (‘smart development’). In this essay, we present the first systematic study on how migration – or rather, more concretely, received worker remittances per GDP – helps the nations of our globe to enjoy social and economic progress at a relatively small environmental price. We look at the effects of migration on the balance sheets of societal accounting, based on the ‘ecological price’ of the combined performance of democracy, economic growth, gender equality, human development, research and development, and social cohesion. Feminism in power, economic freedom, population density, the UNDP education index as well as the receipt of worker remittances all significantly contribute towards a ‘smart overall development’, while high military expenditures and a high world economic openness are a bottleneck for ‘smart overall development’