Global Seismic Nowcasting With Shannon Information Entropy.

Seismic nowcasting uses counts of small earthquakes as proxy data to estimate the current dynamical state of an earthquake fault system. The result is an earthquake potential score that characterizes the current state of progress of a defined geographic region through its nominal earthquake "cycle." The count of small earthquakes since the last large earthquake is the natural time that has elapsed since the last large earthquake (Varotsos et al., 2006, https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevE.74.021123). In addition to natural time, earthquake sequences can also be analyzed using Shannon information entropy ("information"), an idea that was pioneered by Shannon (1948, https://doi.org/10.1002/j.1538-7305.1948.tb01338.x). As a first step to add seismic information entropy into the nowcasting method, we incorporate magnitude information into the natural time counts by using event self-information. We find in this first application of seismic information entropy that the earthquake potential score values are similar to the values using only natural time. However, other characteristics of earthquake sequences, including the interevent time intervals, or the departure of higher magnitude events from the magnitude-frequency scaling line, may contain additional information

Generalized parton distributions of the pion in chiral quark models and their QCD evolution

We evaluate Generalized Parton Distributions of the pion in two chiral quark models: the Spectral Quark Model and the Nambu-Jona-Lasinio model with a Pauli-Villars regularization. We proceed by the evaluation of double distributions through the use of a manifestly covariant calculation based on the alpha representation of propagators. As a result polynomiality is incorporated automatically and calculations become simple. In addition, positivity and normalization constraints, sum rules and soft pion theorems are fulfilled. We obtain explicit formulas, holding at the low-energy quark-model scale. The expressions exhibit no factorization in the t-dependence. The QCD evolution of those parton distributions is carried out to experimentally or lattice accessible scales. We argue for the need of evolution by comparing the Parton Distribution Function and the Parton Distribution Amplitude of the pion to the available experimental and lattice data, and confirm that the quark-model scale is low, about 320 MeV.Comment: 25 pages, 15 figures, added discussion of the end-point behavio

Space-Time Clustering and Correlations of Major Earthquakes

Earthquake occurrence in nature is thought to result from correlated elastic stresses, leading to clustering in space and time. We show that occurrence of major earthquakes in California correlates with time intervals when fluctuations in small earthquakes are suppressed relative to the long term average. We estimate a probability of less than 1% that this coincidence is due to random clustering.Comment: 5 pages, 3 figures. Submitted to PR

Navy composite maintenance and repair experience

The Navy has been a strong proponent of composites for aircraft structure. Fleet use of composites started with the F-14 in the early 1970's and has steadily increased. This experience base provides sufficient information to allow an evaluation of the maintenance performance of polymer composites in service. A summary is presented of the Navy's experience with maintenance of composite structure. The general types of damage experienced in the fleet as well as specific examples of composite damage to aircraft is described. The impact of future designs on supportability is also discussed

Decision and Discovery in Defining “Disease”

This version (May 17, 2005) was published in its final form as: Schwartz PH. Decision and discovery in defining 'disease'. In: Kincaid H, McKitrick J, editors. Establishing medical reality: essays in the metaphysics and epistemology of biomedical science. Dordrecht: Springer; 2007. p. 47-63. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/1-4020-5216-2_5The debate over how to analyze the concept of disease has often centered on the question of whether to include a reference to values, in particular the ‘disvalue’of diseases, or whether to avoid such notions. ‘Normativists,’such as King ([1954], 1981) and Culver and Gert (1982) emphasize the undesirability of diseases, while ‘Naturalists,’ most prominently Christopher Boorse (1977, 1987, 1997), instead require just the presence of biological dysfunction. The debate between normativism and naturalism often deteriorates into stalemate, with each side able to point out significant problems with the other. It starts to look as if neither approach can work. In this paper, I argue that the standoff stems from deeply questionable assumptions that have been used to formulate the opposing positions and guide the debate. In the end, I propose an alternative set of guidelines that offer a more constructive way to devise and compare theories

The Association between sensation seeking and well-being among college-attending emerging adults

Sensation seeking is a known risk factor for unsafe and reckless behavior among college students, but its association with well-being is unknown. Given that exploration plays an important psychosocial role during the transition to adulthood, we examined the possibility that sensation seeking is also associated with psychological wellbeing. In a large multisite US college sample (N = 8,020), scores on the Arnett Inventory of Sensation Seeking were positively associated with risk behavior, psychological well-being, and eudaimonic well-being. When sensation seeking dimensions were examined separately, well-being was found to be associated with high novelty seeking but with low intensity seeking

Noticias de Bahía Academia

El Vivero de la ECCD. Las Amenazadas Tortugas de Cerro Paloma, Isabel. El Daño de los Chivos al Volcán Alcedo. Las Colecciones del Museo de la ECCD. Chivos en Pinta, Otra Vez? Existe un Guadalupe River en Galápagos? Avistamiento de un Tirano del Este. Tomar Palabras del Pasado. ¡Es Scalesia Atractyloides! El Beagle, Bote de Investigación de la ECCD. Alcedo al Día. Exposición de Arte a Beneficio de Alcedo. Nueva Construcción. Actividad Geológica? Ciencia de Alta Tecnología. Mas Noticias Sobre Pinta. Primer Registro de la Garza Verde (Butorides Viriscens) en las Islas Galápagos. Un Vuelo sobre los Volcanes del Norte de Isabela

What are the challenges and resilience resources identified by informal carers during the first UK COVID-19 lockdown? A longitudinal qualitative study using naturalistic data

COVID-19 has posed serious challenges for informal carers living in the UK. This article examines some of the specific challenges facing carers and the resources they used to manage them throughout the first UK lockdown. We used a framework approach to analyse naturalistic, longitudinal data from 30 carers taking part in 96 of Mobilise’s daily Virtual Cuppas between March and July 2020. We found that lack of information and social restrictions cumulatively impacted carers’ sense of certainty, control and motivation. This took an emotional toll on the carers, leading to exhaustion and burden. However, carers quickly established new routines and used humour and self-care to actively manage their wellbeing. Carers received support but also provided it to those in need, including fellow members of the caregiving community, supporting an ecological approach to carer resilience. Our findings may be used to anticipate challenges and promote protective resilience resources in future lockdowns