A Class of General Reliability Growth Prediction Models

The article of record as published may be found at https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.18.1.52In structuring reliability growth prediction models as Markov chains it is seen that the computation of the reliability after n trials and possible associated repairs R, may be accomplished with any of several different methods. This paper considers a class of models that accommodates variations in several important factors, such as the interdependences of assignable cause failure modes, inclusion of an inherent failure mode, the repair policy, and the distribution of initial states of the system

A Comparison of Multivariate Normal Generators

Three methods for generating outcomes on multivariate normal random vectors with a specified variance-covariance matrix are presented. A comparison is made to determine which method requires the least computer execution time and memory space when utilizing the IBM 360/67. All methods use as a basis a standard Gaussian random number generator. Results of the comparison indicate that the method based on triangular factorization of the covariance matrix generally requires less memory space and computer time than the other two metho

Clinical characteristics of children with epilepsy managed at an urban hospital in Africa: a retrospective study

Background: Most children with epilepsy reside in resource-limited regions such as sub-Saharan Africa, where the majority of studies have been conducted in rural areas with limited investigations. Medical records from children with epilepsy seen at an urban hospital in Kenya were examined to provide a comprehensive description of epilepsy in children from this hospital. Methods: A retrospective observational study was conducted which involved reviewing medical records of 426 epilepsy patients (260 males and 166 females) aged 0 - 18 years, seen in Nairobi, Kenya between February 2011 and December 2014. Results: The most frequent age at presentation; documented in 29% was in infancy. Generalized seizures due to structural brain abnormalities were the most common form of epilepsy (28%). Lennox-Gastaut Syndrome was the most common electroclinical syndrome (7%). Focal seizures and focal seizures with loss of awareness were identified in 12% of the population. There were no cases of childhood absence epilepsy in this group. Brain atrophy was the most common MRI finding, occurring in a fifth of the population (20%), while cystic encephalomalacia occurred in 13%. Half (50%) of all EEG recordings performed for this cohort were abnormal. Generalized seizures due to structural brain abnormalities and Lennox-Gastaut Syndrome (LGS) were significant predictors of a treatment history of three or more AEDs. At the conclusion of the review period, 16% of the patients had not visited the clinic for more than 12 months and were considered to be lost to follow-up. Conclusion: The highest frequency of epilepsy cases was documented in children less than one year of age. Generalized seizures due to structural abnormalities and Lennox-Gastaut syndrome were the most common seizure type and syndrome. Improvement of public awareness of different types of seizures in children may increase identification of children with childhood absence epilepsy

Clinical Significance of Symptoms in Smokers with Preserved Pulmonary Function

Currently, the diagnosis of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) requires a ratio of forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1) to forced vital capacity (FVC) of less than 0.70 as assessed by spirometry after bronchodilator use. However, many smokers who do not meet this definition have respiratory symptoms

Variability in objective and subjective measures affects baseline values in studies of patients with COPD

Rationale: Understanding the reliability and repeatability of clinical measurements used in the diagnosis, treatment and monitoring of disease progression is of critical importance across all disciplines of clinical practice and in clinical trials to assess therapeutic efficacy and safety. Objectives: Our goal is to understand normal variability for assessing true changes in health status and to more accurately utilize this data to differentiate disease characteristics and outcomes. Methods: Our study is the first study designed entirely to establish the repeatability of a large number of instruments utilized for the clinical assessment of COPD in the same subjects over the same period. We utilized SPIROMICS participants (n = 98) that returned to their clinical center within 6 weeks of their baseline visit to repeat complete baseline assessments. Demographics, spirometry, questionnaires, complete blood cell counts (CBC), medical history, and emphysema status by computerized tomography (CT) imaging were obtained. Results: Pulmonary function tests (PFTs) were highly repeatable (ICC’s >0.9) but the 6 minute walk (6MW) was less so (ICC = 0.79). Among questionnaires, the Saint George’s Respiratory Questionnaire (SGRQ) was most repeatable. Self-reported clinical features, such as exacerbation history, and features of chronic bronchitis, often produced kappa values <0.6. Reported age at starting smoking and average number of cigarettes smoked were modestly repeatable (kappa = 0.76 and 0.79). Complete blood counts (CBC) variables produced intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC) values between 0.6 and 0.8. Conclusions: PFTs were highly repeatable, while subjective measures and subject recall were more variable. Analyses using features with poor repeatability could lead to misclassification and outcome errors. Hence, care should be taken when interpreting change in clinical features based on measures with low repeatability. Efforts to improve repeatability of key clinical features such as exacerbation history and chronic bronchitis are warranted

LSST Science Book, Version 2.0

A survey that can cover the sky in optical bands over wide fields to faint magnitudes with a fast cadence will enable many of the exciting science opportunities of the next decade. The Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST) will have an effective aperture of 6.7 meters and an imaging camera with field of view of 9.6 deg^2, and will be devoted to a ten-year imaging survey over 20,000 deg^2 south of +15 deg. Each pointing will be imaged 2000 times with fifteen second exposures in six broad bands from 0.35 to 1.1 microns, to a total point-source depth of r~27.5. The LSST Science Book describes the basic parameters of the LSST hardware, software, and observing plans. The book discusses educational and outreach opportunities, then goes on to describe a broad range of science that LSST will revolutionize: mapping the inner and outer Solar System, stellar populations in the Milky Way and nearby galaxies, the structure of the Milky Way disk and halo and other objects in the Local Volume, transient and variable objects both at low and high redshift, and the properties of normal and active galaxies at low and high redshift. It then turns to far-field cosmological topics, exploring properties of supernovae to z~1, strong and weak lensing, the large-scale distribution of galaxies and baryon oscillations, and how these different probes may be combined to constrain cosmological models and the physics of dark energy.Comment: 596 pages. Also available at full resolution at http://www.lsst.org/lsst/sciboo

LSST: from Science Drivers to Reference Design and Anticipated Data Products

(Abridged) We describe here the most ambitious survey currently planned in the optical, the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST). A vast array of science will be enabled by a single wide-deep-fast sky survey, and LSST will have unique survey capability in the faint time domain. The LSST design is driven by four main science themes: probing dark energy and dark matter, taking an inventory of the Solar System, exploring the transient optical sky, and mapping the Milky Way. LSST will be a wide-field ground-based system sited at Cerro Pach\'{o}n in northern Chile. The telescope will have an 8.4 m (6.5 m effective) primary mirror, a 9.6 deg$^2$ field of view, and a 3.2 Gigapixel camera. The standard observing sequence will consist of pairs of 15-second exposures in a given field, with two such visits in each pointing in a given night. With these repeats, the LSST system is capable of imaging about 10,000 square degrees of sky in a single filter in three nights. The typical 5$\sigma$ point-source depth in a single visit in $r$ will be $\sim 24.5$ (AB). The project is in the construction phase and will begin regular survey operations by 2022. The survey area will be contained within 30,000 deg$^2$ with $\delta<+34.5^\circ$, and will be imaged multiple times in six bands, $ugrizy$, covering the wavelength range 320--1050 nm. About 90\% of the observing time will be devoted to a deep-wide-fast survey mode which will uniformly observe a 18,000 deg$^2$ region about 800 times (summed over all six bands) during the anticipated 10 years of operations, and yield a coadded map to $r\sim27.5$. The remaining 10\% of the observing time will be allocated to projects such as a Very Deep and Fast time domain survey. The goal is to make LSST data products, including a relational database of about 32 trillion observations of 40 billion objects, available to the public and scientists around the world.Comment: 57 pages, 32 color figures, version with high-resolution figures available from https://www.lsst.org/overvie