Assessing whether artificial intelligence is an enabler or an inhibitor of sustainability at indicator level

"Since the early phase of the artificial-intelligence (AI) era expectations towards AI are high, with experts believing that AI paves the way for managing and handling various global challenges. However, the significant enabling and inhibiting influence of AI for sustainable development needs to be assessed carefully, given that the technology diffuses rapidly and affects millions of people worldwide on a day-to-day basis. To address this challenge, a panel discussion was organized by the KTH Royal Institute of Technology, the AI Sustainability Center and MIT Massachusetts Institute of Technology, gathering a wide range of AI experts. This paper summarizes the insights from the panel discussion around the following themes: The role of AI in achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) AI for a prosperous 21st century Transparency, automated decision-making processes, and personal profiling and Measuring the relevance of Digitalization and Artificial Intelligence (D&AI) at the indicator level of SDGs. The research-backed panel discussion was dedicated to recognize and prioritize the agenda for addressing the pressing research gaps for academic research, funding bodies, professionals, as well as industry with an emphasis on the transportation sector. A common conclusion across these themes was the need to go beyond the development of AI in sectorial silos, so as to understand the impacts AI might have across societal, environmental, and economic outcomes. The recordings of the panel discussion can be found at: https://www.kth.se/en/2.18487/evenemang/the-role-of-ai-in-achieving-the-sdgs-enabler-or-inhibitor-1.1001364?date=2020â 08â 20&length=1&orglength=185&orgdate=2020â 06â 30 Short link: https://bit.ly/2Kap1tE © 2021"The authors acknowledge the KTH Sustainability Office and the KTH Digitalization Platform for their provided funding, which enabled the organization of this panel discussion. SG acknowledges the funding provided by the German Federal Ministry for Education and Research (BMBF) for the project “digitainable”. SDL acknowledges support through the Spanish Governmen

Combining eight research areas to foster the uptake of ecosystem-based management in fresh waters

Freshwater ecosystems are under a constant risk of being irreversibly damaged by human pressures that threaten their biodiversity, the sustainability of ecosystem services (ESs), and human well-being. Despite the implementation of various environmental regulations, the challenges of safeguarding freshwater assets have so far not been tackled successfully. A promising way forward to stop the loss of freshwater biodiversity and to sustain freshwater-based ESs is by implementing ecosystem-based management (EBM), an environmental planning and adaptive management approach that jointly considers social and ecological needs. Responsible for considerable recent success in sustainably managing and conserving marine ecosystems, EBM has not yet been championed for fresh waters. A major reason for the delayed uptake of EBM in fresh waters is likely to be its complexity, requiring planners to be familiar with the latest developments in a range of different research areas. EBM would therefore benefit from becoming more tangible to receive attention on the ground. To facilitate uptake, eight core research areas for EBM and their innovations are introduced, and the way in which they feed into the workflow that guides the EBM planning stage is explained. The workflow links biodiversity distributions with ES supply-and-demand modelling and SMART (specific, measurable, attainable, relevant, and timely) target planning, including scenario- and cross-realm perspectives, the prioritization of management alternatives, spatial prioritization of biodiversity conservation and ES areas, and the quantification of uncertainties. Given the extensive resources, time, and technical capacity required to implement the full workflow, a light and an ultralight version of the workflow are also provided. Applied in concert, the eight well-known research areas allow for better planning and operationalizing, and eventually for implementing EBM in freshwater ecosystems. EBM has great potential to increase public acceptance by introducing the consideration of human needs and aspirations into typically biodiversity-driven conservation and management approaches. This will ultimately improve the integrity of freshwater ecosystems. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.German Federal Ministry of Education and Research, Grant/Award Number: 01 LN1320A; Horizon 2020 Framework Programme, Grant/Award Number: 642317; Marie Sklodowska‐Curie Global Fellowship, Grant/Award Number: 748625; Ramón y Cajal, Grant/Award Number: RYC‐2013‐1397

How to make ecological models useful for environmental management

Understanding and predicting the ecological consequences of different management alternatives is becoming increasingly important to support environmental management decisions. Ecological models could contribute to such predictions, but in the past this was often not the case. Ecological models are often developed within research projects but are rarely used for practical applications. In this synthesis paper, we discuss how to strengthen the role of ecological modeling in supporting environmental management decisions with a focus on methodological aspects. We address mainly ecological modellers but also potential users of modeling results. Various modeling approaches can be used to predict the response of ecosystems to anthropogenic interventions, including mechanistic models, statistical models, and machine learning approaches. Regardless of the chosen approach, we outline how to better align the modeling to the decision making process, and identify six requirements that we believe are important to increase the usefulness of ecological models for management support, especially if management decisions need to be justified to the public. These cover: (i) a mechanistic understanding regarding causality, (ii) alignment of model input and output with the management decision, (iii) appropriate spatial and temporal resolutions, (iv) uncertainty quantification, (v) sufficient predictive performance, and (vi) transparent communication. We discuss challenges and synthesize suggestions for addressing these points. © 2019 The Author(s)This paper was initialized during a special session on Ecological Modelling at the 10th Symposium for European Freshwater Science 2017 ( http://www.sefs10.cz/ ) and further developed during the AQUACROSS project, funded by European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (Grant agreement No. 642317 ). SD, SDL and MF were partly funded by the “GLANCE” project (Global Change Effects in River Ecosystems; 01 LN1320A) through the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research ( BMBF ). SDL has received additional funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the Marie Sklodowska-Curie grant agreement No. 748625 . JML acknowledges the support of the Spanish Government through María de Maeztu excellence accreditation 2018–2021 (Ref. MDM-2017-0714 )

What is the potential for replacing monocultures with mixed-species stands to enhance ecosystem services in boreal forests in Fennoscandia?

The boreal forests of Fennoscandia are largely dominated by Norway spruce and Scots pine. Conifer monocultures have been favoured in forest management during the last decades. Recently, concern has risen that forests consisting of only one tree species could be vulnerable to biotic damage. Additionally, environmental and societal changes are placing new demands on forest utilization, thus shifting the focus to alternative forest management options providing a wider scale of ecosystem services. It has been proposed that mixed forests are better than monocultures with respect to biodiversity, risk management and recreational value. By synthesising research studies, we provide an overview of current knowledge on how to combine wood production and other ecosystem services in mixed boreal forests in Fennoscandia. We addressed the following questions in more detail: what are the effects of mixed forests on soil properties, understorey vegetation, biodiversity, wildlife, resistance to and resilience against damage, forest productivity and the multiple use of forests? Furthermore, what are the silvicultural possibilities for establishing and managing mixed forests?Based on this review, mixed forests appear to provide a higher output of most ecosystem goods and services, including higher biodiversity and improved risk management, soil properties and multiple-use values. The most serious challenge is the browsing by cervids, which damages sapling stands. There is potential to establish single-storied mixed forests with current regeneration methods and material. Further research is particularly needed on the silvicultural practices suited for mixed boreal forests

Continental drift and climate change drive instability in insect assemblages

Global change has already had observable effects on ecosystems worldwide, and the accelerated rate of global change is predicted in the future. However, the impacts of global change on the stability of biodiversity have not been systematically studied in terms of both large spatial (continental drift) and temporal (from the last inter-glacial period to the next century) scales. Therefore, we analyzed the current geographical distribution pattern of Plecoptera, a thermally sensitive insect group, and evaluated its stability when coping with global change across both space and time throughout the Mediterranean region—one of the first 25 global biodiversity hotspots. Regional biodiversity of Plecoptera reflected the geography in both the historical movements of continents and the current environmental conditions in the western Mediterranean region. The similarity of Plecoptera assemblages between areas in this region indicated that the uplift of new land and continental drift were the primary determinants of the stability of regional biodiversity. Our results revealed that climate change caused the biodiversity of Plecoptera to slowly diminish in the past and will cause remarkably accelerated biodiversity loss in the future. These findings support the theory that climate change has had its greatest impact on biodiversity over a long temporal scale.This study was supported by a National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) grant provided by the Korean government (MEST) (No. 2010-0027360)

Catastrophic Decline of World's Largest Primate: 80% Loss of Grauer's Gorilla (Gorilla beringei graueri) Population Justifies Critically Endangered Status

Grauer's gorilla (Gorilla beringei graueri), the World's largest primate, is confined to eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and is threatened by civil war and insecurity. During the war, armed groups in mining camps relied on hunting bushmeat, including gorillas. Insecurity and the presence of several militia groups across Grauer's gorilla's range made it very difficult to assess their population size. Here we use a novel method that enables rigorous assessment of local community and ranger-collected data on gorilla occupancy to evaluate the impacts of civil war on Grauer's gorilla, which prior to the war was estimated to number 16,900 individuals. We show that gorilla numbers in their stronghold of Kahuzi- Biega National Park have declined by 87%. Encounter rate data of gorilla nests at 10 sites across its range indicate declines of 82-100% at six of these sites. Spatial occupancy analysis identifies three key areas as the most critical sites for the remaining populations of this ape and that the range of this taxon is around 19,700 km2. We estimate that only 3,800 Grauer's gorillas remain in the wild, a 77% decline in one generation, justifying its elevation to Critically Endangered status on the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species

Predicting River Macroinvertebrate Communities Distributional Shifts under Future Global Change Scenarios in the Spanish Mediterranean Area

Several studies on global change over the next century predict increases in mean air temperatures of between 1°C to 5°C that would affect not only water temperature but also river flow. Climate is the predominant environmental driver of thermal and flow regimes of freshwater ecosystems, determining survival, growth, metabolism, phenology and behaviour as well as biotic interactions of aquatic fauna. Thus, these changes would also have consequences for species phenology, their distribution range, and the composition and dynamics of communities. These effects are expected to be especially severe in the Mediterranean basin due its particular climate conditions, seriously threatening Southern European ecosystems. In addition, species with restricted distributions and narrow ecological requirements, such as those living in the headwaters of rivers, will be severely affected. The study area corresponds to the Spanish Mediterranean and Balearic Islands, delimited by the Köppen climate boundary. With the application of the MEDPACS (MEDiterranean Prediction And Classification System) predictive approach, the macroinvertebrate community was predicted for current conditions and compared with three posible scenarios of watertemperature increase and its associated water flow reductions. The results indicate that the aquatic macroinvertebrate communities will undergo a drastic impact, with reductions in taxa richness for each scenario in relation to simulated current conditions, accompanied by changes in the taxa distribution pattern. Accordingly, the distribution area of most of the taxa (65.96%) inhabiting the mid-high elevations would contract and rise in altitude. Thus, families containing a great number of generalist species will move upstream to colonize new zones with lower water temperatures. By contrast, more vulnerable taxa will undergo reductions in their distribution area.This work was funded by GUADALMED-II (REN2001-3438-C07-06/HID), a project of excellence from “Junta de Andalucía” (RNM-02654/FEDER), the Spanish “Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación” (CGL2007-61856/BOS), projects and a collaboration agreement between the “Spanish Ministerio de Medio Ambiente, Medio Rural y Marino” and the University of Granada (21.812-0062/8511)

Water-Borne Cues of a Non-Indigenous Seaweed Mediate Grazer-Deterrent Responses in Native Seaweeds, but Not Vice Versa

Plants optimise their resistance to herbivores by regulating deterrent responses on demand. Induction of anti-herbivory defences can occur directly in grazed plants or from emission of risk cues to the environment, which modifies interactions of adjacent plants with, for instance, their consumers. This study confirmed the induction of anti-herbivory responses by water-borne risk cues between adjoining con-specific seaweeds and firstly examined whether plant-plant signalling also exists among adjacent hetero-specific seaweeds. Furthermore, differential abilities and geographic variation in plant-plant signalling by a non-indigenous seaweed as well as native seaweeds were assessed. Twelve-day induction experiments using the non-indigenous seaweed Sargassum muticum were conducted in the laboratory in Portugal and Germany with one local con-familiar (Portugal: Cystoseira humilis, Germany: Halidrys siliquosa) and hetero-familiar native species (Portugal: Fucus spiralis, Germany: F. vesiculosus). All seaweeds were grazed by a local isopod species (Portugal: Stenosoma nadejda, Germany: Idotea baltica) and were positioned upstream of con- and hetero-specific seaweeds. Grazing-induced modification in seaweed traits were tested in three-day feeding assays between cue-exposed and cue-free ( = control) pieces of both fresh and reconstituted seaweeds. Both Fucus species reduced their palatability when positioned downstream of isopod-grazed con-specifics. Yet, the palatability of non-indigenous S. muticum remained constant in the presence of upstream grazed con-specifics and native hetero-specifics. In contrast, both con-familiar (but neither hetero-familiar) native species reduced palatability when located downstream of grazed S. muticum. Similar patterns of grazer-deterrent responses to water-borne cues were observed on both European shores, and were almost identical between assays using fresh and reconstituted seaweeds. Hence, seaweeds may use plant-plant signalling to optimise chemical resistance to consumers, though this ability appeared to be species-specific. Furthermore, this study suggests that native species may benefit more than a non-indigenous species from water-borne cue mediated reduction in consumption as only natives responded to signals emitted by hetero-specifics

From DPSIR the DAPSI(W)R(M) Emerges… a Butterfly – ‘protecting the natural stuff and delivering the human stuff’

The complexity of interactions and feedbacks between human activities and ecosystems can make the analysis of such social-ecological systems intractable. In order to provide a common means to understand and analyse the links between social and ecological process within these systems, a range of analytical frameworks have been developed and adopted. Following decades of practical experience in implementation, the Driver Pressure State Impact Response (DPSIR) conceptual framework has been adapted and re-developed to become the D(A)PSI(W)R(M). This paper describes in detail the D(A)PSI(W)R(M) and its development from the original DPSIR conceptual frame. Despite its diverse application and demonstrated utility, a number of inherent shortcomings are identified. In particular the DPSIR model family tend to be best suited to individual environmental pressures and human activities and their resulting environmental problems, having a limited focus on the supply and demand of benefits from nature. We present a derived framework, the “Butterfly”, a more holistic approach designed to expand the concept. The “Butterfly” model, moves away from the centralised accounting framework approach while more-fully incorporating the complexity of social and ecological systems, and the supply and demand of ecosystem services, which are central to human-environment interactions