Cost-Utility Analysis: Current Methodological Issues and Future Perspectives

The use of cost–effectiveness as final criterion in the reimbursement process for listing of new pharmaceuticals can be questioned from a scientific and policy point of view. There is a lack of consensus on main methodological issues and consequently we may question the appropriateness of the use of cost–effectiveness data in health care decision-making. Another concern is the appropriateness of the selection and use of an incremental cost–effectiveness threshold (Cost/QALY). In this review, we focus mainly on only some key methodological concerns relating to discounting, the utility concept, cost assessment, and modeling methodologies. Finally we will consider the relevance of some other important decision criteria, like social values and equity

Cost-effectiveness of prucalopride in the treatment of chronic constipation in the Netherlands

Objective: To assess the cost-effectiveness of prucalopride vs. continued laxative treatment for chronic constipation in patients in the Netherlands in whom laxatives have failed to provide adequate relief. Methods: A Markov model was developed to estimate the cost-effectiveness of prucalopride in patients with chronic constipation receiving standard laxative treatment from the perspective of Dutch payers in 2011. Data sources included published prucalopride clinical trials, published Dutch price/tariff lists, and national population statistics. The model simulated the clinical and economic outcomes associated with prucalopride vs. standard treatment and had a cycle length of 1 month and a follow-up time of 1 year. Response to treatment was defined as the proportion of patients who achieved "normal bowel function". One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted to test the robustness of the base case. Results: In the base case analysis, the cost of prucalopride relative to continued laxative treatment was 9015 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY). Extensive sensitivity analyses and scenario analyses confirmed that the base case cost-effectiveness estimate was robust. One-way sensitivity analyses showed that the model was most sensitive in response to prucalopride; incremental cost-effectiveness ratios ranged from 6475 to 15,380 per QALY. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses indicated that there is a greater than 80% probability that prucalopride would be cost-effective compared with continued standard treatment, assuming a willingness-to-pay threshold of 20,000 per QALY from a Dutch societal perspective. A scenario analysis was performed for women only, which resulted in a cost-effectiveness ratio of (sic) 7773 per QALY. Conclusion: Prucalopride was cost-effective in a Dutch patient population, as well as in a women-only subgroup, who had chronic constipation and who obtained inadequate relief from laxatives

Fostering Competence in Medicines Development: The IFAPP Perspective

IFAPP (International Federation of Associations of Pharmaceutical Physicians and Pharmaceutical Medicine) is a nonprofit organization with the mission to promote Pharmaceutical Medicine & Medicines Development (PM&MD) by enhancing the competencies and maintaining high research ethical standards of Pharmaceutical Physicians and other professionals involved in medicines development worldwide, leading to the availability and appropriate use of medicines for the benefit of patients and society(1). About 30 national professional associations related to PM&MD, involving 7000 professionals, are affiliated to IFAPP Medicines development has traditionally been a challenging enterprise, with high risk, high investment, and potentially high returns in the lengthy and complex process of identifying a new chemical entity as a candidate for development and possibly succeeding in bringing it as a pharmaceutical product to the market. However, the emergence of genomics, translational research, biomarkers, and precision medicine pose challenges going forward involving allocation of resources, price, market access, and cost-effectiveness as opposed to the traditional concepts of "efficacy" and "safety." Education and Continuing Professional Development (CPD) are a major focus of IFAPP. The International Conference on Pharmaceutical Medicine (ICPM) is the largest event for our organization; ICPM is held every 2 or 3 years and is aimed to provide the state of the art in key areas for our discipline and profession. The paper is a reflection on the role of competency-based education and training for Pharmaceutical Physicians and medicines development scientists, as was discussed during the recent ICPM 2016 held in Sao Paulo, Brazil on April 18-19, with the support of the Brazilian Association of Pharmaceutical Medicine, and gathered around 200 representatives from the pharmaceutical, clinical research and regulatory arenas from all over the world(2,3)

Stochastic and epistemic uncertainty propagation in LCA

Purpose: When performing uncertainty propagation, most LCA practitioners choose to represent uncertainties by single probability distributions and to propagate them using stochastic methods. However the selection of single probability distributions appears often arbitrary when faced with scarce information or expert judgement (epistemic uncertainty). Possibility theory has been developed over the last decades to address this problem. The objective of this study is to present a methodology that combines probability and possibility theories to represent stochastic and epistemic uncertainties in a consistent manner and apply it to LCA. A case study is used to show the uncertainty propagation performed with the proposed method and compare it to propagation performed using probability and possibility theories alone. Methods: Basic knowledge on the probability theory is first recalled, followed by a detailed description of hal-00811827, version 1- 11 Apr 2013 epistemic uncertainty representation using fuzzy intervals. The propagation methods used are the Monte Carlo analysis for probability distribution and an optimisation on alpha-cuts for fuzzy intervals. The proposed method (noted IRS) generalizes the process of random sampling to probability distributions as well as fuzzy intervals, thus making the simultaneous use of both representations possible

Workshop Report: Concepts and methods in the economics of nutrition - Gateways to better economic evaluation of nutrition interventions

Improving health through better nutrition of the population may contribute to enhanced efficiency and sustainability of healthcare systems. A recent expert meeting investigated in detail a number of methodological aspects related to the discipline of nutrition economics. The role of nutrition in health maintenance and in the prevention of non-communicable diseases is now generally recognised. However, the main scope of those seeking to contain healthcare expenditures tends to focus on the management of existing chronic diseases. Identifying additional relevant dimensions to measure and the context of use will become increasingly important in selecting and developing outcome measurements for nutrition interventions. The translation of nutrition-related research data into public health guidance raises the challenging issue of carrying out more pragmatic trials in many areas where these would generate the most useful evidence for health policy decision-making. Nutrition exemplifies all the types of interventions and policy which need evaluating across the health field. There is a need to start actively engaging key stakeholders in order to collect data and to widen health technology assessment approaches for achieving a policy shift from evidence-based medicine to evidence-based decision-making in the field of nutrition

Neighbours' Breeding Success and the Sex Ratio of Their Offspring Affect the Mate Preferences of Female Zebra Finches

Several hypotheses on divorce predict that monogamous pairs should split up more frequently after a breeding failure. Yet, deviations from the expected pattern “success-stay, failure-leave” have been reported in several species. One possible explanation for these deviations would be that individuals do not use only their own breeding performance (i.e., private information) but also that of others (i.e., public information) to decide whether or not to divorce. To test this hypothesis, we investigated the relative importance of private and public information for mate choice decisions in female zebra finches (Taeniopygia guttata).We manipulated the reproductive performance of breeding pairs and measured females' preferences for their mate and the neighbouring male first following pair formation and then seven weeks later when all females had laid eggs and the young were independent. Although all females reduced their preference for their mate after a breeding failure, the decrease was significant only when the neighbouring pair had reproduced successfully. Furthermore, there was no evidence that females biased the sex ratio of their offspring according to their mate's attractiveness. On the other hand, after reproduction, both successful and unsuccessful females increased their preferences for males who had produced a larger proportion of sons. Despite the fact that other mechanisms may have also contributed to our findings, we suggest that females changed their mate preferences based on the proportion of sons produced by successful males, because offspring sex ratio reflects the male's testosterone level at the moment of fertilization and hence is an indicator of his immune condition

LSST: from Science Drivers to Reference Design and Anticipated Data Products

(Abridged) We describe here the most ambitious survey currently planned in the optical, the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST). A vast array of science will be enabled by a single wide-deep-fast sky survey, and LSST will have unique survey capability in the faint time domain. The LSST design is driven by four main science themes: probing dark energy and dark matter, taking an inventory of the Solar System, exploring the transient optical sky, and mapping the Milky Way. LSST will be a wide-field ground-based system sited at Cerro Pach\'{o}n in northern Chile. The telescope will have an 8.4 m (6.5 m effective) primary mirror, a 9.6 deg$^2$ field of view, and a 3.2 Gigapixel camera. The standard observing sequence will consist of pairs of 15-second exposures in a given field, with two such visits in each pointing in a given night. With these repeats, the LSST system is capable of imaging about 10,000 square degrees of sky in a single filter in three nights. The typical 5$\sigma$ point-source depth in a single visit in $r$ will be $\sim 24.5$ (AB). The project is in the construction phase and will begin regular survey operations by 2022. The survey area will be contained within 30,000 deg$^2$ with $\delta<+34.5^\circ$, and will be imaged multiple times in six bands, $ugrizy$, covering the wavelength range 320--1050 nm. About 90\% of the observing time will be devoted to a deep-wide-fast survey mode which will uniformly observe a 18,000 deg$^2$ region about 800 times (summed over all six bands) during the anticipated 10 years of operations, and yield a coadded map to $r\sim27.5$. The remaining 10\% of the observing time will be allocated to projects such as a Very Deep and Fast time domain survey. The goal is to make LSST data products, including a relational database of about 32 trillion observations of 40 billion objects, available to the public and scientists around the world.Comment: 57 pages, 32 color figures, version with high-resolution figures available from https://www.lsst.org/overvie

Physician supply forecast: better than peering in a crystal ball?

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Anticipating physician supply to tackle future health challenges is a crucial but complex task for policy planners. A number of forecasting tools are available, but the methods, advantages and shortcomings of such tools are not straightforward and not always well appraised. Therefore this paper had two objectives: to present a typology of existing forecasting approaches and to analyse the methodology-related issues.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A literature review was carried out in electronic databases Medline-Ovid, Embase and ERIC. Concrete examples of planning experiences in various countries were analysed.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Four main forecasting approaches were identified. The supply projection approach defines the necessary inflow to maintain or to reach in the future an arbitrary predefined level of service offer. The demand-based approach estimates the quantity of health care services used by the population in the future to project physician requirements. The needs-based approach involves defining and predicting health care deficits so that they can be addressed by an adequate workforce. Benchmarking health systems with similar populations and health profiles is the last approach. These different methods can be combined to perform a gap analysis. The methodological challenges of such projections are numerous: most often static models are used and their uncertainty is not assessed; valid and comprehensive data to feed into the models are often lacking; and a rapidly evolving environment affects the likelihood of projection scenarios. As a result, the internal and external validity of the projections included in our review appeared limited.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>There is no single accepted approach to forecasting physician requirements. The value of projections lies in their utility in identifying the current and emerging trends to which policy-makers need to respond. A genuine gap analysis, an effective monitoring of key parameters and comprehensive workforce planning are key elements to improving the usefulness of physician supply projections.</p