Subset hypotheses testing and instrument exclusion in the linear IV regression

This paper investigates the asymptotic size properties of robust subset tests when instruments are left out of the analysis. Recently, robust subset procedures have been developed for testing hypotheses which are specified on the subsets of the structural parameters or on the parameters associated with the included exogenous variables. It has been shown that they never over-reject the true parameter values even when nuisance parameters are not identified. However, their robustness to instrument exclusion has not been investigated. Instrument exclusion is an important problem in econometrics and there are at least two reasons to be concerned. Firstly, it is difficult in practice to assess whether an instrument has been omitted. For example, some components of the “identifying” instruments that are excluded from the structural equation may be quite uncertain or “left out” of the analysis. Secondly, in many instrumental variable (IV) applications, an infinite number of instruments are available for use in large sample estimation. This is particularly the case with most time series models. If a given variable, say Xt, is a legitimate instrument, so too are its lags Xt1; Xt2. Hence, instrument exclusion seems highly likely in most practical situations. After formulating a general asymptotic framework which allows one to study this issue in a convenient way, I consider two main setups: (1) the missing instruments are (possibly) relevant, and, (2) they are asymptotically weak. In both setups, I show that all subset procedures studied are in general consistent against instrument inclusion (hence asymptotically invalid for the subset hypothesis of interest). I characterize cases where consistency may not hold, but the asymptotic distribution is modified in a way that would lead to size distortions in large samples. I propose a “rule of thumb” which allows to practitioners to know whether a missing instrument is detrimental or not to subset procedures. I present a Monte Carlo experiment confirming that the subset procedures are unreliable when instruments are missing.REPEC,

Ethical elements in P.B.Shelley’s ‘Prometheus Unbound’

Percy Bysshe Shelley is one of the greatest British poets of romanticism. his literary work is great in quantity and quality, where we clearly see the most important features of romanticism, like the overflow of emotions, imagination, importance given to individualism, praise and importance of nature etc. his poetry is various in form and themes. they can be classified in lyrical poems, long narrative poems, plays, etc. in this paper there will be a short presentation on the author and his work in general, but the most important part is the insight of the ethical elements in his greatest narrative poem 'Prometheus unbound'. the variety of themes, ethical messages, Shelley’s ideology on revolution and his political views are issues analyzed. For example, the major theme of Prometheus unbound is that if humanity chooses to shake off corruption and embrace love (represented by Prometheus’s revocation of his curse against Jupiter), then reform – political, social, and religious – will necessarily follow. the poem thus teaches that humans possess the capacity within themselves to effect reform, beginning with the individual rejection of evil. We also tried to make a comparison between Shelley’s poem, and the ancient myth about Prometheus, etc. the aesthetical elements included in the poem are also discusses. However, not only ‘Prometheus unbound’, but majority of Shelley’s poems are unique as his life was

Do contacts matter in the process of getting a job in Cameroon?

We question whether the use of social networks to exit unemployment matters in Cameroon. We develop a Weibull-type duration model which allows us to address this issue in a convenient way. Our investigations indicate that there is a strong evidence of endogeneity and sample selection biases. We then propose a three-step procedure to deal with both problems. Our results show that the use of social networks to exit unemployment is effective. Furthermore, we find that the hazard monotonically increases with time. Hence, unemployment exhibits a positive duration dependence. Moreover, we provide an analysis of factors that determine labor market participation and the use of social networks. We find that the density of the west native population in the center of Cameroon and religion are the only factors that determine the use of social networks. In contrast, characteristics such as age, sex, education, association’s membership, determine labor market participation.RePEc

War in Hemingway and Kadare’s Novels

War is a really common topic, but different authors treat it differently. We see this in Hemingway and Kadare’s novels as well. I saw some of Hemingway’s great novels, Farewell to Arms, For Whom the Bell Tolls, and Islands in the Stream, and Kadare’s General of the Dead Army, Chronicle in Stone, and November in a Capital City. Through different characters they described what people went through, they discuss about the horror that war brings, the pain people experienced, etc, but also expressed their attitude and opinion on war and politics. We see their novels contain horrifying images of what war can bring – death and destruction. Both Hemingway and Kadare are on the side that fights fascism, since they saw fascism as the most destructive force of humankind. Fascism was the cause of all the suffering and that’s why it should be fought by any case. However, Hemingway and Kadare witnessed another kind of war, which maybe was worse, it was a class war, which Hemingway experienced in Spain and Hemingway in his native Albania. There are many other important aspects to be discussed about these great literary figures, two writers who are distant in space and time, but still have a lot of common, so I believe that Hemingway and Kadare’s novels will be objects of future studies of many prosperous researchers.Keywords: Hemingway, Kadare, war, novel, politics

Algoritmi za određivanje najbližeg para

U ovom radu smo proučili šest algoritama za rješavanje problema najbližeg para u $\mathbb{R}^{2}$. Pokazali smo kako se problem može riješiti determinističkim algoritmom složenosti $O(n\log n)$, a nedeterminističkim algoritmima složenost možemo spustiti do $O(n)$. Ipak, testiranjem smo utvrdili da je na praktičnim veličinama ulaznih podataka od egzaktnih algoritama najefikasniji onaj koji je predstavljen u odjeljku 3.1 pod imenom Divide_and_Conquer, čija složenost je $O(n\log^{2}n)$. Na kraju smo predstavili i jedan parametrizirani heuristički algoritam složenosti $O(\frac{n}{\log n})$ koji pronalazi približno rješenje, čija točnost se može povećati nauštrb vremena izvođenja.In this paper we have examined six different algorithms for solving the closest pair of points problem in $\mathbb{R}^{2}$. We have shown that the problem can be solved with deterministic algorithms in $O(n\log n)$ time and in $O(n)$ time with non-deterministic algorithms. However, testing these algorithms has revealed that, for practical input sizes, the most efficient exact algorithm is the one we have labelled Divide_and_Conquer which was presented in section 3.1 and which runs in $O(n\log^{2}n)$time. In the final chapter we have presented a parameterised simulated annealing algorithm which finds an approximate solution in $O(\frac{n}{\log n})$ time, accuracy of which can be increased at the expense of speed

Percy Bysshe Shelley A Major Figure Among the English Romantic Poets, His Unconventional Life and Great Literary Work

Shelley is one of the best poets of the period of English romanticism. He belongs to the second group of romantic poets, together with John Keats and the great Lord Byron. Shelley’s life itself is very interesting and unusual, he went through so many difficulties, tragedies, troubles, tension and oppression, confrontations, etc, he could not find peace anywhere, he moved from one place to the other, from one country to another, etc. Beside personal problems, emotional and health problems, he could not accept the social reality England was living. Politics was another issue that tackled him, and he openly expressed his opinion, what made him a kind of state enemy. He met and was influenced by many great people of that time, who had a very important role in his life. These people, like Godwin, developed his political and ideological belief, etc. All his belief, his opinion, his ideology, was put on paper, he expressed it through his great works that he wrote. He faced very harsh criticism from the early days in Oxford, when his work Necessity of Atheism established him as an atheist. He expressed his esthetics in his greatest works. All his literary work can be classified in long narrative poems and lyrical poems, which cover topics ranging from politics, revolutionary, and philosophical, where we can notice Shelley’s dissatisfaction with state institutions and the state itself, and his desire for human wellbeing and freedom as well, to poems with meditative ideas, love poems, visionary ones, which express Shelley’s emotions, burst feelings, love, pain and spiritual joy. His greatest narrative poems are: Prometheus Unbound, Triumph of Life, Queen Mab, Julian and Maddalo, Adonais, Alastor, Mask of Anarchy, etc and his best lyrics: Ode to the West Wind, The Cloud, To Skylark, Mont Blank, The Indian Serenade, England in 1819, Ozymandias, and many others.Keywords: P. B. Shelley, Romanticism, Poems, Lyrics, Revolutionary

Hassas Ayar'ın teist olmayan açıklamalarının eleştirisi

Modern physics has shown that the universe is fine-tuned for life. Theists have argued that fine-tuning of the universe for life can be used as a premise in for a teleological argument for the existence of God. One possible way to develop such an argument is to argue that best explanation of fine-tuning is theistic design hypothesis. There are two strategies which can be employed against this argument. First one can claim that there are naturalistic explanations of fine-tuning superior than the design hypothesis. In this paper we analyze the two main alternatives of design hypothesis, the more fundamental law and multiverse hypothesis. Second one can object to the claim that design hypothesis can explain fine-tuning. We also analyze two such objections the “God of the gaps” objection and “Who designed the God” objection. We try to show that both approaches do not undermine the teleological argument based on fine-tuning.Çağdaş fizik evrenimizin yaşam için hassas ayarlı olduğunu göstermiştir. Bazı teistler evrenin yaşam için hassas ayarının Tanrı’nın varlığı lehindeki bir Teleolojik argümana öncül oluşturabileceğini iddia etmişlerdir. Böyle bir argüman geliştirmenin bir yolu, teistik tasarım hipotezinin hassas ayarın en iyi açıklması olduğunu iddia etmektir. Bu argüman karşısında uygulanabilecek iki temel strateji vardır. Birinicisi hassas ayarla ilgili teistik tasarım hipotezinden daha güçlü doğalcı açıklamalar olduğunu iddia etmektir. Bu makalede tasarım argümanının iki en önemli alternatifi olan daha temel bir yasa ve çok evrenler hipotezlerini inceleyeceğiz. İkincisi teistik tasarım hipotezinin hassas ayarı açıklayabileceği fikrine itiraz edilebilir. Bu strateji ile yaklaşan iki itiraz “boşlukların Tanrısı” ve “Tanrı’yı kim tasarladı?” da ele alıp değerlendirmeye çalışacağız. Makalemizde iki yaklaşımın da hassas ayara dayalı Teleolojik argümanı çürütemediğini göstermeye çalışacağız.WOS:00047690540000

ANALYSIS OF REVOLT OF ISLAM BY P.B.SHELLEY

The Revolt of Islam is one of the most favorite narrative poems of P.B.Shelley. It may be considered his longest narrative poem. In this paper I will try to give an overview of this poem, but first it is worth pointing out the most important facts about the author himself, his life and literary work in general. However, I am going to present the plot, and the get into a detailed analysis of its themes, style, artistic values etc of The Revolt of Islam.  In fact this poem had undergone some changes until its final version was published as The Revolt of Islam.  Despite the title, the poem doesn’t have to do with Islam as a religion, but it talks about the struggle between the good and the bad, authorities, state, in other words, it can be considered as an ABC of morality and political education.  On the other hand, I’ll give a poetical analysis, dealing with the structure, meter, rhyme, symbolism, i.e. esthetical elements of the poem. Through this poem, we can clearly notice the greatness of P.B.Shelley, his artistic mastery and the characteristics of romanticism represented in the poem. Key words: Shelley, Romanticism, Narrative poem, Politics, State, Authoritie

Hassas ayar açıklamaya muhtaç mıdır?

Contemporary physics has shown that the universe is fine-tuned for life i.e. of all the possible ways physical laws, initial conditions and constants of physics could have been configured, only an extremely small range is capable of supporting life. Some theists have argued that fine-tuning can be used as a premise in a design argument for the existence of God, while some other scientists and philosophers have argued that fine-tuning provides evidence for a multiverse, a hypothesis which claim that there is more than one universe. Both approaches assume that fine-tuning needs some kind of an explanation. Despite the initial appeal some philosophers and scientists have denied the need of an explanation for the fine-tuning. They either deny that the universe is fine-tuned for existence or else think that we should not be surprised that universe is fine-tuned, and therefore should not search for an explanation. In this paper we analyse some of these claims and try to show that neither of them succeeds in demonstrating that fine-tuning does not need an explanation.Çağdaş fizik evrenimizin yaşam için hassas ayarlı olduğunu göstermiştir. Evrenin yaşam için hassas ayarlı olması demek fizik yasaları, başlangıç koşulları ve temel fizik sabitlerinin alabileceği muhtemel değerlerden çok azı yaşama izin vermesi demektir. Bazı teist düşünürler hassas ayarın Tanrı’nın varlığı lehinde geliştirilebilecek Tasarım kanıtlarında öncül görevi görebileceğini iddia etmişlerdir. Diğer taraftan bazı felsefeci ve bilim insanları hassas ayar gözlemenin birden fazla evrenin var olduğunu savunan çok evrenler hipotezini desteklediğini iddia etmişlerdir. Bu iki yaklaşım da hassas ayarın bir açıklamaya muhtaç olduğunu varsayımını yapar. İlk bakışta bu varsayım makul gözükse de bazı felsefeci ve bilim insanları hassas ayarın bir açıklamaya muhtaç olduğu iddiasını reddetmişlerdir. Bu yaklaşımı savunanlar ya evrenin yaşam için hassas ayarlı olmadığını ya da evrenin hassas ayarlı olmasına şaşırmamamız gerektiğini, dolayısı ile hassas ayarın bir açıklamaya ihtiyaç duymadığını iddia etmişlerdir. Bu makalemizde bu iddialarının bir kısmını ele alarak değerlendirecek ve hassas ayarın açıklamaya muhtaç olmadığını temellendirmede başarısız olduklarını göstermeye çalışacağız