Methane on the Rise-Again

International audienc

Impact of meteorology and emissions on methane trends, 1990–2004

Over the past century, atmospheric methane (CH4) rose dramatically before leveling off in the late 1990s. The processes controlling this trend are poorly understood, limiting confidence in projections of future CH4. The MOZART-2 global tropospheric chemistry model qualitatively captures the observed CH4 trend (increasing in the early 1990s and then leveling off) with constant emissions. From 1991–1995 to 2000–2004, the CH4 lifetime versus tropospheric OH decreases by 1.6%, reflecting increases in OH and temperature. The rise in OH stems from an increase in lightning NOx as parameterized in the model. A simulation including annually varying anthropogenic and wetland CH4 emissions, as well as the changes in meteorology, best reproduces the observed CH4 distribution, trend, and seasonal cycles. Projections of future CH4 abundances should consider climate-driven changes in CH4 sources and sinks

New improvements in the Izaña (Tenerife, Spain) global GAW station in-situ greenhouse gases measurement program

Póster presentado en: 16th WMO/IAEA Meeting on Carbon Dioxide, Other Greenhouse Gases, and Related Measurement Techniques celebrado del 25 al 28 de octubre de 2011 en Wellington, Nueva Zelanda

Separating the influence of temperature, drought, and fire on interannual variability in atmospheric CO 2

The response of the carbon cycle in prognostic Earth system models (ESMs) contributes significant uncertainty to projections of global climate change. Quantifying contributions of known drivers of interannual variability in the growth rate of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) is important for improving the representation of terrestrial ecosystem processes in these ESMs. Several recent studies have identified the temperature dependence of tropical net ecosystem exchange (NEE) as a primary driver of this variability by analyzing a single, globally averaged time series of CO 2 anomalies. Here we examined how the temporal evolution of CO 2 in different latitude bands may be used to separate contributions from temperature stress, drought stress, and fire emissions to CO 2 variability. We developed atmospheric CO 2 patterns from each of these mechanisms during 1997–2011 using an atmospheric transport model. NEE responses to temperature, NEE responses to drought, and fire emissions all contributed significantly to CO 2 variability in each latitude band, suggesting that no single mechanism was the dominant driver. We found that the sum of drought and fire contributions to CO 2 variability exceeded direct NEE responses to temperature in both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. Additional sensitivity tests revealed that these contributions are masked by temporal and spatial smoothing of CO 2 observations. Accounting for fires, the sensitivity of tropical NEE to temperature stress decreased by 25% to 2.9 ± 0.4 Pg C yr −1  K −1 . These results underscore the need for accurate attribution of the drivers of CO 2 variability prior to using contemporary observations to constrain long‐term ESM responses. Key Points Accurate attribution of CO 2 variability is required to constrain coupled models Combined influence of drought and fire exceed ecosystem responses to temperature Temporal and spatial smoothing of CO 2 observations masks variability from firePeer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/109962/1/gbc20215.pd

Inverse modeling of CH4 emissions for 2010 - 2011 using different satellite retrieval products from GOSAT and SCIAMACHY

Beginning in 2009 new space-borne observations of dry-air column-averaged mole fractions of atmospheric methane (XCH4) became available from the Thermal And Near infrared Sensor for carbon Observations - Fourier Transform Spectrometer (TANSO-FTS) instrument onboard the Greenhouse Gases Observing SATellite (GOSAT). Until April 2012 concurrent CH4 measurements were provided by the SCanning Imaging Absorption spectroMeter for Atmospheric CartograpHY (SCIAMACHY) instrument onboard ENVISAT. The GOSAT and SCIAMACHY XCH4 retrievals can be directly compared during their circa 32-month period of overlap. We estimate monthly average CH4 emissions between January 2010 and December 2011, using the TM5-4DVAR inverse modeling system. Additionally, high-accuracy measurements from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Earth System Research Laboratory (NOAA ESRL) global air sampling network are used, providing strong constraints of the remote surface atmosphere. We discuss five inversion scenarios that make use of different GOSAT and SCIAMACHY XCH4 retrieval products, including two sets of GOSAT proxy retrievals processed independently by the Netherlands Institute for Space Research (SRON) / Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), and the University of Leicester (UL), and the RemoTeC "Full-Physics" (FP) XCH4 retrievals available from SRON/KIT. 2-year average emission maps show a good overall agreement among all GOSAT-based inversions, but also compared to the SCIAMACHY-based inversion, with consistent flux adjustment patterns, particularly across Equatorial Africa and North America. The inversions are validated against independent shipboard and aircraft observations, and XCH4 measurements available from the Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON). All GOSAT and SCIAMACHY inversions show very similar validation performance.JRC.H.2-Air and Climat

Regional Methane Emission Estimation Based on Observed Atmospheric Concentrations (2002-2012)

Methane (CH4) plays important roles in atmospheric chemistry and short-term forcing of climate. A clear understanding of atmospheric CH4’s budget of emissions and losses is required to aid sustainable management of Earth’s future environment. We used an atmospheric chemistry-transport model (JAMSTEC’s ACTM) for simulating atmospheric CH4. A global inverse modeling system has been developed for estimating CH4 emissions from 53 land regions for 2002-2012 using measurements at 39 sites. An ensemble of 7 inversions is performed by varying a priori emissions. Global net CH4 emissions varied between 505-509 and 524-545 Tg yr-1 during 2002-2006 and 2008-2012, respectively (ranges based on 7 inversion cases), with a step like increase in 2007 in agreement with atmospheric measurements. The inversion system did not account for interannual variations in OH radicals reacting with CH4 in the atmosphere. Our results suggest that the recent update of the EDGAR inventory (version 4.2FT2010) overestimated the global total emissions by at least 25 Tg yr-1 in 2010. The increase in CH4 emission since 2004 originated in the tropical and southern hemisphere regions, coinciding with an increase in non-dairy cattle stocks by ~10 % from 2002 (with 1056 million heads) to 2012, leading to ~10 Tg yr-1 increase in emissions from enteric fermentation. All 7 ensemble cases robustly estimated the interannual variations in emissions, but poorly constrained the seasonal cycle amplitude or phase consistently for all regions due to the sparse observational network. Forward simulation results using both a priori and a posteriori emissions are compared with independent aircraft measurements for validation. Based on the results of the comparison, we reject the upper limit (545 Tg yr-1) of global total emissions as 14 Tg yr-1 too high during 2008-2012, which allows us to further conclude that the increase in CH4 emissions over the East Asia (mainly China) region was 7-8 Tg yr-1 between the 2002-2006 and 2008-2012 periods, contrary to 1-17 Tg yr-1 in the a priori emissions

Influences of hydroxyl radicals (OH) on top-down estimates of the global and regional methane budgets

The hydroxyl radical (OH), which is the dominant sink of methane (CH4), plays a key role in closing the global methane budget. Current top-down estimates of the global and regional CH4 budget using 3D models usually apply prescribed OH fields and attribute model–observation mismatches almost exclusively to CH4 emissions, leaving the uncertainties due to prescribed OH fields less quantified. Here, using a variational Bayesian inversion framework and the 3D chemical transport model LMDz, combined with 10 different OH fields derived from chemistry–climate models (Chemistry–Climate Model Initiative, or CCMI, experiment), we evaluate the influence of OH burden, spatial distribution, and temporal variations on the global and regional CH4 budget. The global tropospheric mean CH4-reaction-weighted [OH] ([OH]GM−CH4) ranges 10.3–16.3×105 molec cm−3 across 10 OH fields during the early 2000s, resulting in inversion-based global CH4 emissions between 518 and 757  Tg yr−1. The uncertainties in CH4 inversions induced by the different OH fields are similar to the CH4 emission range estimated by previous bottom-up syntheses and larger than the range reported by the top-down studies. The uncertainties in emissions induced by OH are largest over South America, corresponding to large inter-model differences of [OH] in this region. From the early to the late 2000s, the optimized CH4 emissions increased by 22±6  Tg yr−1 (17–30  Tg yr−1), of which ∼25  % (on average) offsets the 0.7  % (on average) increase in OH burden. If the CCMI models represent the OH trend properly over the 2000s, our results show that a higher increasing trend of CH4 emissions is needed to match the CH4 observations compared to the CH4 emission trend derived using constant OH. This study strengthens the importance of reaching a better representation of OH burden and of OH spatial and temporal distributions to reduce the uncertainties in the global and regional CH4 budgets