Dynamic structural estimation of shipping investment decisions

Thesis (Ph. D.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Ocean Engineering, 2004.Includes bibliographical references (p. 174-179).This dissertation develops structural models for analyzing shipping investment decisions, namely ordering, scrapping and lay-up decisions in the tanker industry. We develop models, based on a microeconomic specification, that allow us to understand the dynamics of shipping investment decisions under uncertainty and test interrelated economic assertions with aggregate data. The main framework is a three-party model with a structural specification of the time charter rate process, based on market clearing conditions. Structural estimation of shipping investment decisions is performed by using advanced econometric methods consistent with the Real Options and Market Microstructure literature. Several statistical tests are employed, in order to evaluate alternative specifications. Once the aggregate models have been identified and estimated, some of the early hypotheses in maritime economics are addressed and re-evaluated. Finally we integrate the three different investment modules and reconstruct the structural transportation supply function that determines the equilibrium time charter rate. System identification techniques and advanced econometric methods are employed separately and then combined, resulting in an exceptional "within-sample", as well as "out-of-sample" performance of the integrated model.by George N. Dikos.Ph.D

A survey of shipping finance research: setting the future research agenda

Financing shipping related investment projects has always been a focal area of debate and research within the international maritime industry since access to funding can determine the competitiveness of a capital-intensive business as well as its success or failure under adverse market conditions. This paper provides, for the first time, a comprehensive and structured survey of all published research in the area of shipping finance and investment. The review spans approximately four decades (1979-2018) of empirical evidence, including 162 studies published in 48 scholarly journals, complemented with select books and book chapters. The study provides a bibliometric analysis and comprehensive synthesis of existing research offering an invaluable source of information for both the academic community and business practice, shaping the future research agenda in shipping finance and investment

New Building Prices: Demand Inelastic or Perfectly Competitive?

Since the pioneering work of Zannetos in maritime economics, it has been well understood that prices of new vessels are non-stabilising. In the earlier literature, most of this behaviour has been attributed to market imperfections and externalities. In this paper, we test empirically the stabilising role of the prices of new vessels through the application of advanced econometric tests. Finally, we challenge the assertion that the sub-optimal behaviour of new building prices is due to market anomalies, such as subsidies, and propose a perfectly competitive paradigm that can successfully accommodate the observed patterns of new building price behaviour. Maritime Economics & Logistics (2004) 6, 312–321. doi:10.1057/palgrave.mel.9100115

Integrating the four shipping markets : a new approach

Thesis (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Ocean Engineering, 2003.Includes bibliographical references (leaves 99-100).by George N. Dikos.S.M

The status of the canonical form of marriage in Papua New Guinea: A comparative study of customary, statutory and canonical celebration of marriage

The people in Papua New Guinea contract marriage according to their traditional, customary law, normally in every case prior to any Christian rite of marriage. From the time of their customary marriage, even Catholics, consider themselves properly married. Nevertheless, they are aware that they cannot receive the Eucharist as long as they remain unmarried in the eyes of the Church. If it takes place at all, the Church marriage is often celebrated years after the customary marriage and this rite loses its meaning for the couple and many Catholics think that a Church marriage contributes, if anything, little to the married state. At best it regularizes a couple's position before the priest and this provides access to the Eucharist. This attitude and the low percentage of Catholics who celebrate their marriage in the canonical form has been a matter of increasing concern to the Church in Papua New Guinea. Customary marriage differs from the Western form of marriage in two respects: (a) It comes into being in the course of protracted negotiations between the families of the bridegroom and the bride. Various stages in the negotiations are marked by various ceremonies; (b) while free choice and consent of the parties is in no way precluded, the inter-familial relationship is an inseparable characteristic of the marriage according to Papua New Guinean customs. It was with an intention of identifying and proposing an equitable solution the pastoral problems related to marriage and family life in Papua New Guinea that we undertook our study regarding the status of the canonical form of marriage in Papua New Guinea. The status quaestionis of study was: How might the customary laws expressed in the traditional celebration of marriage be safeguarded and yet contextualized within the Church's legislation on the canonical form of marriage? This status quaestionis is answered in four inter-related chapters. The principal conclusion of our study suggests that the most serious feature of a low marriage rate in the church is the separation in time of the customary and sacramental marriage, which leads to a widespread view that sacramental marriage is largely irrelevant. For this reason, we discuss at length in the fourth chapter the compatibility between the notions of a natural contract (contractum naturale) and the sacramental marriage. The integration of the customary celebration, that is, natural marriage, and the canonical celebration is possible only when marriage is actually celebrated within a cultural context that conforms to the customary legal traditions of people. Because of this compatibility between the two forms of marriage, any adaptation of the canonical form of marriage to customary celebration must take into consideration the different roles the lay people, that is, the leaders of the communities or elders of families as well as the priest have to play. (Abstract shortened by UMI.

Relation between gingival fluid and mixed and parotid salivary IgA

Gingival fluid and 'resting' mixed and parotid saliva was collected from 28 individuals of 25 to 60 years of age with generalized periodontitis but with no other pathologic condition which possibly could disturb immunologic mechanisms. Immunoglobulin IgA content of all three of those oral cavity fluids was determined by the single radial immunodiffusion technic of Mancini et al. using LC-Partigen immunodiffusion plates for quantitative determination of proteins in low concentration ranges. Following statistical analysis of the data collected it was found that IgA content of the gingival fluid was 186.9 mg%, the 'resting' mixed saliva 10.3 mg% and 'resting' parotid saliva 6.5 mg%. Correlation coefficients between IgA content of mixed and parotid saliva was r = 0.618, between IgA content of parotid saliva and gingival fluid r = 0.502 and between IgA content of mixed saliva and gingival fluid r = 0.638. In conclusion, on the basis of the data presented, it could be speculated that three external body secretions, i.e. gingiva fluid, parotid and mixed saliva, have demonstrated a similarity in behavior of their IgA content on the presence of periodontal disease. This possibly could be due to prolonged activity of bacterial antigens, stimulating production of gingival IgA, and with combined increased antigen absorption through inflamed gingiva, local production of glandular IgA

The Term Structure of Second-hand Prices: A Structural Partial Equilibrium Model

Since the pioneering work of Koopmans (1939) and Mossin (1968) in Maritime Economics, the market for new vessels, the market for second-hand vessels, the freight rate market and finally the market for scrap have been considered as different markets where price is formed under the laws of supply and demand. In this paper, we consider the prices of new vessels and the charter rates as sufficient statistics for the value of second-hand vessels. Using modern finance theory, we derive a closed formula for the prices of second-hand vessels taking into consideration their Real Option value. We introduce two explanatory variables for second-hand prices and derive equilibrium prices in a partial equilibrium framework. Our model fits the data and provides some structural insight into the functional form of second-hand prices. Maritime Economics & Logistics (2003) 5, 251–267. doi:10.1057/palgrave.mel.9100084