Impact of air pollution on global burden of disease in 2019

Air pollution consisting of ambient air pollution and household air pollution (HAP) threatens health globally. Air pollution aggravates the health of vulnerable people such as infants, children, women, and the elderly as well as people with chronic diseases such as cardiorespiratory illnesses, little social support, and poor access to medical services. This study is aimed to estimate the impact of air pollution on global burden of disease (GBD). We extracted data about mortality and disability adjusted life years (DALYs) attributable to air pollution from 1990 to 2019. The extracted data were then organized and edited into a usable format using STATA version 15. Furthermore, we also estimated the impacts for three categories based on their socio-demographic index (SDI) as calculated by GBD study. The impacts of air pollution on overall burden of disease by SDI, gender, type of pollution, and type of disease is estimated and their trends over the period of 1990 to 2019 are presented. The attributable burden of ambient air pollution is increasing over the years while attributable burden of HAP is declining over the years, globally. The findings of this study will be useful for evidence-based planning for prevention and control of air pollution and reduction of burden of disease from air pollution at global, regional, and national levels

Effects of climatic factors on diarrheal diseases among children below 5 years of age at national and subnational levels in Nepal: an ecological study

INTRODUCTION: The incidence of diarrhea, a leading cause of morbidity and mortality in low-income countries such as Nepal, is temperature-sensitive, suggesting it could be associated with climate change. With climate change fueled increases in the mean and variability of temperature and precipitation, the incidence of water and food-borne diseases are increasing, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. This national-level ecological study was undertaken to provide evidence linking weather and climate with diarrhea incidence in Nepal. METHOD: We analyzed monthly diarrheal disease count and meteorological data from all districts, spanning 15 eco-development regions of Nepal. Meteorological data and monthly data on diarrheal disease were sourced, respectively, from the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology and Health Management Information System (HMIS) of the Government of Nepal for the period from 2002 to 2014. Time-series log-linear regression models assessed the relationship between maximum temperature, minimum temperature, rainfall, relative humidity, and diarrhea burden. Predictors with p-values < 0.25 were retained in the fitted models. RESULTS: Overall, diarrheal disease incidence in Nepal significantly increased with 1 degrees C increase in mean temperature (4.4%; 95% CI: 3.95, 4.85) and 1 cm increase in rainfall (0.28%; 95% CI: 0.15, 0.41). Seasonal variation of diarrheal incidence was prominent at the national level (11.63% rise in diarrheal cases in summer (95% CI: 4.17, 19.61) and 14.5% decrease in spring (95% CI: -18.81, -10.02) compared to winter season). Moreover, the effects of temperature and rainfall were highest in the mountain region compared to other ecological regions of Nepal. CONCLUSION: Our study provides empirical evidence linking weather factors and diarrheal disease burden in Nepal. This evidence suggests that additional climate change could increase diarrheal disease incidence across the nation. Mountainous regions are more sensitive to climate variability and consequently the burden of diarrheal diseases. These findings can be utilized to allocate necessary resources and envision a weather-based early warning system for the prevention and control of diarrheal diseases in Nepal

Prevalence and risk factors associated with chronic kidney disease in Nepal: evidence from a nationally representative population-based cross-sectional study.

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to determine population-based prevalence of chronic kidney disease (CKD) and its associated factors in Nepal. STUDY DESIGN: The study was a nationwide population-based cross-sectional study. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Cross-sectional survey conducted in a nationally representative sample of 12 109 Nepalese adult from 2016 to 2018 on selected chronic non-communicable diseases was examined. Multistage cluster sampling with a mix of probability proportionate to size and systematic random sampling was used for the selection of individuals aged 20 years and above. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Primary outcome in this study was population-based prevalence of CKD in Nepal. A participant was considered to have CKD if the urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio was greater than or equal to 30 mg/g and/or estimated glomerular filtration rate is less than 60 mL/min/1.73 m2 at baseline and in follow-up using modification of diet in renal disease study equations. The secondary outcome measure was factors associated with CKD in Nepal. The covariate adjusted association of risk factors and CKD was calculated using multivariable binary logistic regression. RESULTS: The overall prevalence of CKD in Nepal was 6.0% (95% CI 5.5 to 6.6). Factors independently associated with CKD included older age (adjusted OR (AOR) 2.6, 95% CI 1.9 to 3.6), Dalit caste (AOR 1.6, 95% CI 1.1 to 2.3), hypertension (AOR 2.4, 95% CI 2.0 to 3.0), diabetes mellitus (AOR 3.2, 95% CI 2.5 to 4.1), raised total cholesterol (AOR 1.3, 95% CI 1.0 to 1.6) and increased waist-to-hip ratio (AOR 1.6, 95% CI 1.2 to 2.3). CONCLUSION: This nationally representative study shows that the prevalence of CKD in the adult population of Nepal is substantial, and it is independently associated with several cardiometabolic traits. These findings warrant longitudinal studies to identify the causes of CKD in Nepal and effective strategies to prevent it

Acute Lower Respiratory Infection in Childhood and Household Fuel Use in Bhaktapur, Nepal

Background: Globally, solid fuels are used by about 3 billion people for cooking. These fuels have been associated with many health effects, including acute lower respiratory infection (ALRI) in young children. Nepal has a high prevalence of use of biomass for cooking and heating. Objective: This case–control study was conducted among a population in the Bhaktapur municipality, Nepal, to investigate the relationship of cookfuel type to ALRI in young children. Methods: Cases with ALRI and age-matched controls were enrolled from an open cohort of children 2–35 months old, under active monthly surveillance for ALRI. A questionnaire was used to obtain information on family characteristics, including household cooking and heating appliances and fuels. The main analysis was carried out using conditional logistic regression. Population-attributable fractions (PAF) for stove types were calculated. Results: A total of 917 children (452 cases and 465 controls) were recruited into the study. Relative to use of electricity for cooking, ALRI was increased in association with any use of biomass stoves [odds ratio (OR) = 1.93; 95% CI: 1.24, 2.98], kerosene stoves (OR = 1.87; 95% CI: 1.24, 2.83), and gas stoves (OR = 1.62; 95% CI: 1.05, 2.50). Use of wood, kerosene, or coal heating was also associated with ALRI (OR = 1.45; 95% CI: 0.97, 2.14), compared with no heating or electricity or gas heating. PAFs for ALRI were 18.0% (95% CI: 8.1, 26.9%) and 18.7% (95% CI: 8.4%–27.8%), for biomass and kerosene stoves, respectively. Conclusions: The study supports previous reports indicating that use of biomass as a household fuel is a risk factor for ALRI, and provides new evidence that use of kerosene for cooking may also be a risk factor for ALRI in young children

Threats of Zika virus transmission for Asia and its Hindu-Kush Himalayan region

This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made.No specific funding was received for this research. However, the work of RM, UK and DAG was funded by the Federal Ministry of Education and Research of Germany (BMBF) under the project AECO (number 01Kl1717) as part of the National Research Network on Zoonotic Infectious Diseases of Germany

Spatial heterogeneity of habitat suitability for Rift Valley fever occurrence in Tanzania: an ecological niche modelling approach

Despite the long history of Rift Valley fever (RVF) in Tanzania, extent of its suitable habitat in the country remains unclear. In this study we investigated potential effects of temperature, precipitation, elevation, soil type, livestock density, rainfall pattern, proximity to wild animals, protected areas and forest on the habitat suitability for RVF occurrence in Tanzania. Presence-only records of 193 RVF outbreak locations from 1930 to 2007 together with potential predictor variables were used to model and map the suitable habitats for RVF occurrence using ecological niche modelling. Ground-truthing of the model outputs was conducted by comparing the levels of RVF virus specific antibodies in cattle, sheep and goats sampled from locations in Tanzania that presented different predicted habitat suitability values. Habitat suitability values for RVF occurrence were higher in the northern and central-eastern regions of Tanzania than the rest of the regions in the country. Soil type and precipitation of the wettest quarter contributed equally to habitat suitability (32.4% each), followed by livestock density (25.9%) and rainfall pattern (9.3%). Ground-truthing of model outputs revealed that the odds of an animal being seropositive for RVFV when sampled from areas predicted to be most suitable for RVF occurrence were twice the odds of an animal sampled from areas least suitable for RVF occurrence (95% CI: 1.43, 2.76, p < 0.001). The regions in the northern and central-eastern Tanzania were more suitable for RVF occurrence than the rest of the regions in the country. The modelled suitable habitat is characterised by impermeable soils, moderate precipitation in the wettest quarter, high livestock density and a bimodal rainfall pattern. The findings of this study should provide guidance for the design of appropriate RVF surveillance, prevention and control strategies which target areas with these characteristics

Global, regional, and national burden of low back pain, 1990–2020, its attributable risk factors, and projections to 2050: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Low back pain is highly prevalent and the main cause of years lived with disability (YLDs). We present the most up-to-date global, regional, and national data on prevalence and YLDs for low back pain from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2021. Methods: Population-based studies from 1980 to 2019 identified in a systematic review, international surveys, US medical claims data, and dataset contributions by collaborators were used to estimate the prevalence and YLDs for low back pain from 1990 to 2020, for 204 countries and territories. Low back pain was defined as pain between the 12th ribs and the gluteal folds that lasted a day or more; input data using alternative definitions were adjusted in a network meta-regression analysis. Nested Bayesian meta-regression models were used to estimate prevalence and YLDs by age, sex, year, and location. Prevalence was projected to 2050 by running a regression on prevalence rates using Socio-demographic Index as a predictor, then multiplying them by projected population estimates. Findings: In 2020, low back pain affected 619 million (95% uncertainty interval 554–694) people globally, with a projection of 843 million (759–933) prevalent cases by 2050. In 2020, the global age-standardised rate of YLDs was 832 per 100 000 (578–1070). Between 1990 and 2020, age-standardised rates of prevalence and YLDs decreased by 10·4% (10·9–10·0) and 10·5% (11·1–10·0), respectively. A total of 38·8% (28·7–47·0) of YLDs were attributed to occupational factors, smoking, and high BMI. Interpretation: Low back pain remains the leading cause of YLDs globally, and in 2020, there were more than half a billion prevalent cases of low back pain worldwide. While age-standardised rates have decreased modestly over the past three decades, it is projected that globally in 2050, more than 800 million people will have low back pain. Challenges persist in obtaining primary country-level data on low back pain, and there is an urgent need for more high-quality, primary, country-level data on both prevalence and severity distributions to improve accuracy and monitor change. Funding: Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation

The Fruit Flies (Diptera, Tephritidae) in Bhutan: New Faunistic Records and Compendium of Fauna

Based on a field survey from 2017, twenty-three species are reported from Bhutan for the first time: Acroceratitis ceratitina, A. hardyi, Anomoia approximata, Bactrocera connecta, B. latifrons, B. nigrifacia, B. syzygii, Campiglossa sororcula, Cecidochares connexa, Dacus jacobi, Gastrozona fasciventris, Hoplandromyia antelopa, Lenitovena ultima, Ptilona confinis, Rioxoptilona dunlopi, R. formosana, R. vaga, Spathulina acroleuca, Themara yunnana, Trypeta indica, Zeugodacus apiciflavus, Z. diversus, and Z. fereuncinatus. Four species of the genera Cornutrypeta, Hemilea, Morinowotome, and Vidalia are also recorded for the first time, but the precise determination to species needs additional study and material. As the result, 71 species is listed from Bhutan by far. Their taxonomic position and key characters are discussed. Illustrations for most of the newly recorded species are given

A collaboratively derived international research agenda on legislative science advice

© 2019, The Author(s). The quantity and complexity of scientific and technological information provided to policymakers have been on the rise for decades. Yet little is known about how to provide science advice to legislatures, even though scientific information is widely acknowledged as valuable for decision-making in many policy domains. We asked academics, science advisers, and policymakers from both developed and developing nations to identify, review and refine, and then rank the most pressing research questions on legislative science advice (LSA). Experts generally agree that the state of evidence is poor, especially regarding developing and lower-middle income countries. Many fundamental questions about science advice processes remain unanswered and are of great interest: whether legislative use of scientific evidence improves the implementation and outcome of social programs and policies; under what conditions legislators and staff seek out scientific information or use what is presented to them; and how different communication channels affect informational trust and use. Environment and health are the highest priority policy domains for the field. The context-specific nature of many of the submitted questions—whether to policy issues, institutions, or locations—suggests one of the significant challenges is aggregating generalizable evidence on LSA practices. Understanding these research needs represents a first step in advancing a global agenda for LSA research

Mapping development and health effects of cooking with solid fuels in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000–18: a geospatial modelling study

Background: More than 3 billion people do not have access to clean energy and primarily use solid fuels to cook. Use of solid fuels generates household air pollution, which was associated with more than 2 million deaths in 2019. Although local patterns in cooking vary systematically, subnational trends in use of solid fuels have yet to be comprehensively analysed. We estimated the prevalence of solid-fuel use with high spatial resolution to explore subnational inequalities, assess local progress, and assess the effects on health in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) without universal access to clean fuels. Methods: We did a geospatial modelling study to map the prevalence of solid-fuel use for cooking at a 5 km × 5 km resolution in 98 LMICs based on 2·1 million household observations of the primary cooking fuel used from 663 population-based household surveys over the years 2000 to 2018. We use observed temporal patterns to forecast household air pollution in 2030 and to assess the probability of attaining the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) target indicator for clean cooking. We aligned our estimates of household air pollution to geospatial estimates of ambient air pollution to establish the risk transition occurring in LMICs. Finally, we quantified the effect of residual primary solid-fuel use for cooking on child health by doing a counterfactual risk assessment to estimate the proportion of deaths from lower respiratory tract infections in children younger than 5 years that could be associated with household air pollution. Findings: Although primary reliance on solid-fuel use for cooking has declined globally, it remains widespread. 593 million people live in districts where the prevalence of solid-fuel use for cooking exceeds 95%. 66% of people in LMICs live in districts that are not on track to meet the SDG target for universal access to clean energy by 2030. Household air pollution continues to be a major contributor to particulate exposure in LMICs, and rising ambient air pollution is undermining potential gains from reductions in the prevalence of solid-fuel use for cooking in many countries. We estimated that, in 2018, 205 000 (95% uncertainty interval 147 000–257 000) children younger than 5 years died from lower respiratory tract infections that could be attributed to household air pollution. Interpretation: Efforts to accelerate the adoption of clean cooking fuels need to be substantially increased and recalibrated to account for subnational inequalities, because there are substantial opportunities to improve air quality and avert child mortality associated with household air pollution. Funding: Bill &amp; Melinda Gates Foundation