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千葉大学教育学部研究紀要. II, 人文・社会科学編 4

Prediction of protein assemblies, the next frontier: The CASP14-CAPRI experiment

We present the results for CAPRI Round 50, the fourth joint CASP-CAPRI protein assembly prediction challenge. The Round comprised a total of twelve targets, including six dimers, three trimers, and three higher-order oligomers. Four of these were easy targets, for which good structural templates were available either for the full assembly, or for the main interfaces (of the higher-order oligomers). Eight were difficult targets for which only distantly related templates were found for the individual subunits. Twenty-five CAPRI groups including eight automatic servers submitted ~1250 models per target. Twenty groups including six servers participated in the CAPRI scoring challenge submitted ~190 models per target. The accuracy of the predicted models was evaluated using the classical CAPRI criteria. The prediction performance was measured by a weighted scoring scheme that takes into account the number of models of acceptable quality or higher submitted by each group as part of their five top-ranking models. Compared to the previous CASP-CAPRI challenge, top performing groups submitted such models for a larger fraction (70–75%) of the targets in this Round, but fewer of these models were of high accuracy. Scorer groups achieved stronger performance with more groups submitting correct models for 70–80% of the targets or achieving high accuracy predictions. Servers performed less well in general, except for the MDOCKPP and LZERD servers, who performed on par with human groups. In addition to these results, major advances in methodology are discussed, providing an informative overview of where the prediction of protein assemblies currently stands.Cancer Research UK, Grant/Award Number: FC001003; Changzhou Science and Technology Bureau, Grant/Award Number: CE20200503; Department of Energy and Climate Change, Grant/Award Numbers: DE-AR001213, DE-SC0020400, DE-SC0021303; H2020 European Institute of Innovation and Technology, Grant/Award Numbers: 675728, 777536, 823830; Institut national de recherche en informatique et en automatique (INRIA), Grant/Award Number: Cordi-S; Lietuvos Mokslo Taryba, Grant/Award Numbers: S-MIP-17-60, S-MIP-21-35; Medical Research Council, Grant/Award Number: FC001003; Japan Society for the Promotion of Science KAKENHI, Grant/Award Number: JP19J00950; Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación, Grant/Award Number: PID2019-110167RB-I00; Narodowe Centrum Nauki, Grant/Award Numbers: UMO-2017/25/B/ST4/01026, UMO-2017/26/M/ST4/00044, UMO-2017/27/B/ST4/00926; National Institute of General Medical Sciences, Grant/Award Numbers: R21GM127952, R35GM118078, RM1135136, T32GM132024; National Institutes of Health, Grant/Award Numbers: R01GM074255, R01GM078221, R01GM093123, R01GM109980, R01GM133840, R01GN123055, R01HL142301, R35GM124952, R35GM136409; National Natural Science Foundation of China, Grant/Award Number: 81603152; National Science Foundation, Grant/Award Numbers: AF1645512, CCF1943008, CMMI1825941, DBI1759277, DBI1759934, DBI1917263, DBI20036350, IIS1763246, MCB1925643; NWO, Grant/Award Number: TOP-PUNT 718.015.001; Wellcome Trust, Grant/Award Number: FC00100

Routine health management information system data in Ethiopia: consistency, trends, and challenges.

Background: Ethiopia is investing in the routine Health Management Information System. Improved routine data are needed for decision-making in the health sector. Objective: To analyse the quality of the routine Health Management Information System data and triangulate with other sources, such as the Demographic and Health Surveys. Methods: We analysed national Health Management Information System data on 19 indicators of maternal health, neonatal survival, immunization, child nutrition, malaria, and tuberculosis over the 2012-2018 time period. The analyses were conducted by 38 analysts from the Ministry of Health, Ethiopia, and two government agencies who participated in the Operational Research and Coaching for Analysts (ORCA) project between June 2018 and June 2020. Using a World Health Organization Data Quality Review toolkit, we assessed indicator definitions, completeness, internal consistency over time and between related indicators, and external consistency compared with other data sources. Results: Several services reported coverage of above 100%. For many indicators, denominators were based on poor-quality population data estimates. Data on individual vaccinations had relatively good internal consistency. In contrast, there was low external consistency for data on fully vaccinated children, with the routine Health Management Information System showing 89% coverage but the Demographic and Health Survey estimate at 39%. Maternal health indicators displayed increasing coverage over time. Indicators on child nutrition, malaria, and tuberculosis were less consistent. Data on neonatal mortality were incomplete and operationalised as mortality on day 0-6. Our comparisons with survey and population projections indicated that one in eight early neonatal deaths were reported in the routine Health Management Information System. Data quality varied between regions. Conclusions: The quality of routine data gathered in the health system needs further attention. We suggest regular triangulation with data from other sources. We recommend addressing the denominator issues, reducing the complexity of indicators, and aligning indicators to international definitions

The evolving SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Africa: Insights from rapidly expanding genomic surveillance

INTRODUCTION Investment in Africa over the past year with regard to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) sequencing has led to a massive increase in the number of sequences, which, to date, exceeds 100,000 sequences generated to track the pandemic on the continent. These sequences have profoundly affected how public health officials in Africa have navigated the COVID-19 pandemic. RATIONALE We demonstrate how the first 100,000 SARS-CoV-2 sequences from Africa have helped monitor the epidemic on the continent, how genomic surveillance expanded over the course of the pandemic, and how we adapted our sequencing methods to deal with an evolving virus. Finally, we also examine how viral lineages have spread across the continent in a phylogeographic framework to gain insights into the underlying temporal and spatial transmission dynamics for several variants of concern (VOCs). RESULTS Our results indicate that the number of countries in Africa that can sequence the virus within their own borders is growing and that this is coupled with a shorter turnaround time from the time of sampling to sequence submission. Ongoing evolution necessitated the continual updating of primer sets, and, as a result, eight primer sets were designed in tandem with viral evolution and used to ensure effective sequencing of the virus. The pandemic unfolded through multiple waves of infection that were each driven by distinct genetic lineages, with B.1-like ancestral strains associated with the first pandemic wave of infections in 2020. Successive waves on the continent were fueled by different VOCs, with Alpha and Beta cocirculating in distinct spatial patterns during the second wave and Delta and Omicron affecting the whole continent during the third and fourth waves, respectively. Phylogeographic reconstruction points toward distinct differences in viral importation and exportation patterns associated with the Alpha, Beta, Delta, and Omicron variants and subvariants, when considering both Africa versus the rest of the world and viral dissemination within the continent. Our epidemiological and phylogenetic inferences therefore underscore the heterogeneous nature of the pandemic on the continent and highlight key insights and challenges, for instance, recognizing the limitations of low testing proportions. We also highlight the early warning capacity that genomic surveillance in Africa has had for the rest of the world with the detection of new lineages and variants, the most recent being the characterization of various Omicron subvariants. CONCLUSION Sustained investment for diagnostics and genomic surveillance in Africa is needed as the virus continues to evolve. This is important not only to help combat SARS-CoV-2 on the continent but also because it can be used as a platform to help address the many emerging and reemerging infectious disease threats in Africa. In particular, capacity building for local sequencing within countries or within the continent should be prioritized because this is generally associated with shorter turnaround times, providing the most benefit to local public health authorities tasked with pandemic response and mitigation and allowing for the fastest reaction to localized outbreaks. These investments are crucial for pandemic preparedness and response and will serve the health of the continent well into the 21st century

Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations. METHODS The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds. FINDINGS The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles. INTERPRETATION Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Machine learning and template based modeling for improving and expanding the functionality of rigid body docking

Proteins govern practically every process in living organisms through inhibiting, activating, or acting on other proteins in different ways. With the large and growing number of known interactions through high throughput screening technologies, experimental determination of atomic-level details of these interactions is nigh impossible. Computational methods such as docking can speed up efforts of understanding these interactions. However, several issues ought to be addressed before docking can replace experimental methods. This thesis describes work on assessment of the state of the art in docking methods, implementation of a machine learning algorithm to improve model ranking and integration of docking with template-based modeling to expand its usage with a special focus on antibody-antigen interactions. Firstly, the performance of docking methods was rigorously assessed by using a diverse set of protein complexes with a special focus on ClusPro, one of the leading rigid-body docking servers. Different strengths and potential areas of improvement for ClusPro and rigid-body docking methods in general were highlighted. Secondly, one of the major short-comings of docking noted in the first project, poor ranking of good models, was addressed. A regression-based machine learning algorithm was introduced to improve the ranking. Finally, a server was developed to tackle the challenge of epitope mapping by integrating template-based modeling with docking. An intuitive ensemble approach to scoring residue likelihood using docking poses and different homologues is shown to yield great success. In addition to shifting docking’s purpose of conformational search to interface identification, this server also allows users to start with protein sequence inputs.2022-09-28T00:00:00

Neural network‐derived Potts models for structure‐based protein design using backbone atomic coordinates and tertiary motifs

Designing novel proteins to perform desired functions, such as binding or catalysis, is a major goal in synthetic biology. A variety of computational approaches can aid in this task. An energy-based framework rooted in the sequence-structure statistics of tertiary motifs (TERMs) can be used for sequence design on predefined backbones. Neural network models that use backbone coordinate-derived features provide another way to design new proteins. In this work, we combine the two methods to make neural structure-based models more suitable for protein design. Specifically, we supplement backbone-coordinate features with TERM-derived data, as inputs, and we generate energy functions as outputs. We present two architectures that generate Potts models over the sequence space: TERMinator, which uses both TERM-based and coordinate-based information, and COORDinator, which uses only coordinate-based information. Using these two models, we demonstrate that TERMs can be utilized to improve native sequence recovery performance of neural models. Furthermore, we demonstrate that sequences designed by TERMinator are predicted to fold to their target structures by AlphaFold. Finally, we show that both TERMinator and COORDinator learn notions of energetics, and these methods can be fine-tuned on experimental data to improve predictions. Our results suggest that using TERM-based and coordinate-based features together may be beneficial for protein design and that structure-based neural models that produce Potts energy tables have utility for flexible applications in protein science

ClusPro in rounds 38 to 45 of CAPRI: Toward combining template‐based methods with free docking

Targets in the protein docking experiment CAPRI (Critical Assessment of Predicted Interactions) generally present new challenges and contribute to new developments in methodology. In rounds 38 to 45 of CAPRI, most targets could be effectively predicted using template-based methods. However, the server ClusPro required structures rather than sequences as input, and hence we had to generate and dock homology models. The available templates also provided distance restraints that were directly used as input to the server. We show here that such an approach has some advantages. Free docking with template-based restraints using ClusPro reproduced some interfaces suggested by weak or ambiguous templates while not reproducing others, resulting in correct server predicted models. More recently we developed the fully automated ClusPro TBM server that performs template-based modeling and thus can use sequences rather than structures of component proteins as input. The performance of the server, freely available for noncommercial use at https://tbm.cluspro.org, is demonstrated by predicting the protein-protein targets of rounds 38 to 45 of CAPRI