Seasonal impacts of climate change on electricity production

PESETA IV assesses the impacts of climate change on electricity production by hydro, wind, solar, nuclear and other thermal power plants, including biomass, coal, gas and oil. We assess these impacts in the present power system and in 2050 for a dynamic scenario in line with 2°C mitigation efforts. Both scenarios show that, at EU-level, the production of hydropower plants increases with global warming thanks to higher water availability (although this does not imply substantial development of new hydro plants), while nuclear power decreases. However, there are regional differences in the impacts, such as increased hydro production in the North, and a decline in hydro- and nuclear power production in southern Europe due to lower water availability for direct production or for cooling river-based plants. In northern Europe, the increasing availability of cheaper hydro results in substitution effects and lower production costs, while in southern Europe production costs could increase. Based on the modelling methodology used and the latest available climate simulations, the direct impacts of climate change on wind and solar production are not significant at EU-level. However, in the 2050 power system their capacity would increase in southern regions to compensate for the lost hydro and nuclear production. Climate change impacts on energy in the rest of the world show a negligible spill-over effect on Europe. Improved cooling technologies have the potential to reduce strongly the negative effects of water scarcity, particularly for nuclear plants in southern Europe.JRC.C.6-Economics of Climate Change, Energy and Transpor

Assessment of the impact of climate change on residential energy demand for heating and cooling

Climate change in Europe leads to a decrease of residential heating needs and an increase of residential cooling needs. The impact on cooling needs is higher than on heating, in each of the climatic European regions. The overall residential heating and cooling needs are expected to decrease by a quarter by the end of the century, due to climate change. This order of magnitude remains when accounting for a higher insulation level of buildings.JRC.C.6-Economics of Climate Change, Energy and Transpor

Analysing the interactions between Variable Renewable Energies, electricity storage and grid in long term energy modelling tools

International audienceEnergy systems are changing worldwide: new energy policies promote more sustainable energy productions, including Variable Renewable Energy sources (VREs) such as wind or solar. The long-term implications of the variability and relative unpredictability of these non dispatchable energy sources need to be assessed, for example with energy scenarios. Indeed, electricity is not a homogeneous good: its value depends on the time, space and how variable a production is. Long-term energy models are used, VREs integration challenges being a hot topic in energy modelling. An assessment of long-term energy models is necessary to understand how they represent the specific constraints of VREs on the rest of the power system. Therefore a new typology is proposed for comparing both long-term energy models and power sector models. This comparison shows that – despite all the recent modelling efforts – no long-term energy model represents in detail all the impacts of VREs on the power sector. For example, the sequential representation of the electricity storage operation is too precise for many long-term models. Therefore we develop a dedicated new power sector module, EUCAD (European Unit Commitment And Dispatch). The particularity of the work is that it is connected to POLES (Prospective Outlook on Long-term Energy Systems), one of the most technology-detailed long-term energy models. We present the first results of this new detailed electricity module

POLES-JRC model documentation

This report is a public manual of the POLES-JRC model, the in-house tool of the European Commission for global and long-term analysis of GHG mitigation policies and evolution of energy markets. The model includes a comprehensive description of the energy system and related GHG emissions for a large set of significant economies and residual regions, covering the World and including international bunkers. Through linkage with specialized tools it also provides a full coverage of GHG emissions, including from land use and agriculture, as well as of air pollutants emissions. The POLES-JRC model builds on years of development of the POLES model while adding specific features developed internally to the JRC. The model version presented in this report is used in particular to produce the JRC Global Energy and Climate Outlook (GECO) series.JRC.C.6-Economics of Climate Change, Energy and Transpor

An analysis of possible socio-economic effects of a Cooperative, Connected and Automated Mobility (CCAM) in Europe

A Cooperative, Connected and Automated Mobility (CCAM) is likely to have significant impacts on our economy and society. It is expected that CCAM unveils new and unprecedented mobility opportunities that hold the potential to unlock a range of safety, environmental and efficiency benefits. At the same time, it is anticipated that it will bring deep changes in the labour market, progressively making some occupations and skills less relevant, while at the same time opening up new opportunities for different businesses and requiring new and more advanced skills. With Europe accounting for 23% of global motor vehicle production (Acea Statistics, 2016) and almost 72% of inland freight transported by road in Europe (European Commission, 2017a), the full deployment of Connected and Automated Vehicle (CAV) technologies is expected to have a substantial impact on the European economy. The economic impacts of CAVs will go far beyond the automotive industry, into sectors like insurance, maintenance and repair or health, among others. While it is clear that CAVs could offer unique opportunities for value creation, it is also essential to acknowledge that they might imply a substantial transformation of our industries and our social and living systems. The study is aimed at analysing the value at stake for both industry and society as a result of a transition towards a CCAM mobility in Europe. It aims at identifying the economic sectors that are most likely to be affected by CCAM as well as the influencing factors driving future changes in each sector. The ultimate goal is to estimate ranges of potential effects for the main affected sectors, with the support of a set of scenarios. The study also aims at analysing the potential effects of CCAM on the workforce and pursues the identification of skills that need to be addressed in the mobility transition. The focus of the study is exclusively paid on road transport and covers both passenger and freight transport.JRC.C.4-Sustainable Transpor

POLES-JRC model documentation

This report is a public manual of the POLES-JRC model, the in-house tool of the European Commission for global and long-term analysis of GHG mitigation policies and evolution of energy markets. The model includes a comprehensive description of the energy system and related GHG emissions for a large set of significant economies and residual regions, covering the World and including international bunkers. Through linkage with specialized tools it also provides a full coverage of GHG emissions, including from land use and agriculture, as well as of air pollutants emissions. The POLES-JRC model builds on years of development of the POLES model (Prospective Outlook on Long-term Energy Systems) while adding specific features developed internally to the JRC. Latest modelling upgrades - compared to the 2017 edition of the model documentation - include final energy demand, electricity production, the role of hydrogen as an energy vector, the oil, gas and coal international markets and GHG emission projections. This document presents the Prospective Outlook on Long-term Energy Systems (POLES) model of the Joint Research Centre, as used in the 2018 edition of the Global Energy and Climate Outlook (GECO).JRC.C.6-Economics of Climate Change, Energy and Transpor

Reducing stranded assets through early action in the Indian power sector

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Global Energy and Climate Outlook 2018: Sectoral mitigation options towards a low-emissions economy

This report analyses global transition pathways to a low Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions economy The main scenarios presented have been designed to be compatible with the 2°C and 1.5°C temperature targets put forward in the UNFCCC Paris Agreement, in order to minimise irreversible climate damages. Reaching these targets requires action from all world countries and in all economic sectors. Global net GHG emissions would have to drop to zero by around 2080 to limit temperature increase to 2°C above pre-industrial levels (by around 2065 for the 1.5°C limit). The analysis shows that this ambitious low-carbon transition can be achieved with robust economic growth, implying small mitigation costs. Results furthermore highlight that the combination of climate and air policies can contribute to improving air quality across the globe, thus enabling progress on the UN Sustainable Development Goals for climate action, clean energy and good health. Key uncertainties in future pathways related to the availability of future technological options have been assessed for Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS) and bioenergy. If CCS technologies would not develop, a 2°C pathway would have a similar mitigation trajectory in the first half of the century as a 1.5°C scenario with CCS.JRC.C.6-Economics of Climate Change, Energy and Transpor

Genetic Variation in LPA, Calcific Aortic Valve Stenosis in Patients Undergoing Cardiac Surgery, and Familial Risk of Aortic Valve Microcalcification.

IMPORTANCE: Genetic variants at the LPA locus are associated with both calcific aortic valve stenosis (CAVS) and coronary artery disease (CAD). Whether these variants are associated with CAVS in patients with CAD vs those without CAD is unknown. OBJECTIVE: To study the associations of LPA variants with CAVS in a cohort of patients undergoing heart surgery and LPA with CAVS in patients with CAD vs those without CAD and to determine whether first-degree relatives of patients with CAVS and high lipoprotein(a) (Lp[a]) levels showed evidence of aortic valve microcalcification. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This genetic association study included patients undergoing cardiac surgery from the Genome-Wide Association Study on Calcific Aortic Valve Stenosis in Quebec (QUEBEC-CAVS) study and patients with CAD, patients without CAD, and control participants from 6 genetic association studies: the UK Biobank, the European Prospective Investigation of Cancer (EPIC)-Norfolk, and Genetic Epidemiology Research on Aging (GERA) studies and 3 French cohorts. In addition, a family study included first-degree relatives of patients with CAVS. Data were collected from January 1993 to September 2018, and analysis was completed from September 2017 to September 2018. EXPOSURES: Case-control studies. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Presence of CAVS according to a weighted genetic risk score based on 3 common Lp(a)-raising variants and aortic valve microcalcification, defined as the mean tissue to background ratio of 1.25 or more, measured by fluorine 18-labeled sodium fluoride positron emission tomography/computed tomography. RESULTS: This study included 1009 individuals undergoing cardiac surgery and 1017 control participants in the QUEBEC-CAVS cohort; 3258 individuals with CAVS and CAD, 41 100 controls with CAD, 2069 individuals with CAVS without CAD, and 380 075 control participants without CAD in the UK Biobank, EPIC-Norfolk, and GERA studies and 3 French cohorts combined; and 33 first-degree relatives of 17 patients with CAVS and high Lp(a) levels (≥60 mg/dL) and 23 control participants with normal Lp(a) levels (<60 mg/dL). In the QUEBEC-CAVS study, each SD increase of the genetic risk score was associated with a higher risk of CAVS (odds ratio [OR], 1.35 [95% CI, 1.10-1.66]; P = .003). Each SD increase of the genetic risk score was associated with a higher risk of CAVS in patients with CAD (OR, 1.30 [95% CI, 1.20-1.42]; P < .001) and without CAD (OR, 1.33 [95% CI, 1.14-1.55]; P < .001). The percentage of individuals with a tissue to background ratio of 1.25 or more or CAVS was higher in first-degree relatives of patients with CAVS and high Lp(a) (16 of 33 [49%]) than control participants (3 of 23 [13%]; P = .006). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In this study, a genetically elevated Lp(a) level was associated with CAVS independently of the presence of CAD. These findings support further research on the potential usefulness of Lp(a) cascade screening in CAVS

Personalized Risk Assessment for Prevention and Early Detection of Breast Cancer: Integration and Implementation (PERSPECTIVE I&I).

Early detection of breast cancer through screening reduces breast cancer mortality. The benefits of screening must also be considered within the context of potential harms (e.g., false positives, overdiagnosis). Furthermore, while breast cancer risk is highly variable within the population, most screening programs use age to determine eligibility. A risk-based approach is expected to improve the benefit-harm ratio of breast cancer screening programs. The PERSPECTIVE I&I (Personalized Risk Assessment for Prevention and Early Detection of Breast Cancer: Integration and Implementation) project seeks to improve personalized risk assessment to allow for a cost-effective, population-based approach to risk-based screening and determine best practices for implementation in Canada. This commentary describes the four inter-related activities that comprise the PERSPECTIVE I&I project. 1: Identification and validation of novel moderate to high-risk susceptibility genes. 2: Improvement, validation, and adaptation of a risk prediction web-tool for the Canadian context. 3: Development and piloting of a socio-ethical framework to support implementation of risk-based breast cancer screening. 4: Economic analysis to optimize the implementation of risk-based screening. Risk-based screening and prevention is expected to benefit all women, empowering them to work with their healthcare provider to make informed decisions about screening and prevention