9 research outputs found
The effects of custodial vs. non-custodial sentences on re-offending: A systematic review of the state of knowledge
As part of a broad initiative of systematic reviews of experimental or quasiexperimental
evaluations of interventions in the field of crime prevention and the
treatment of offenders, our work consisted in searching through all available databases
for evidence concerning the effects of custodial and non-custodial sanctions on reoffending.
For this purpose, we examined more than 3,000 abstracts, and finally 23
studies that met the minimal conditions of the Campbell Review, with only 5 studies
based on a controlled or a natural experimental design. These studies allowed, all in all,
27 comparisons. Relatively few studies compare recidivism rates for offenders
sentenced to jail or prison with those of offenders given some alternative to
incarceration (typically probation).
According to the findings, the rate of re-offending after a non-custodial sanction is
lower than after a custodial sanction in 11 out of 13 significant comparisons. However,
in 14 out of 27 comparisons, no significant difference on re-offending between both
sanctions is noted. Two out of 27 comparisons are in favour of custodial sanctions.
Finally, experimental evaluations and natural experiments yield results that are less
favourable to non-custodial sanctions, than are quasi-experimental studies using softer
designs. This is confirmed by the meta-analysis including four controlled and one
natural experiment. According to the results, non-custodial sanctions are not beneficial
in terms of lower rates of re-offending beyond random effects. Contradictory results
reported in the literature are likely due to insufficient control of pre-intervention
differences between prisoners and those serving “alternative” sanctions
How Solid Is the Dutch (and the British) National Risk Assessment? Overview and Decision-Theoretic Evaluation
<p>Internationally, national risk assessment (NRA) is rapidly gaining government sympathy as a science-based approach toward prioritizing the management of national hazards and threats, with the Netherlands and the United Kingdom in leading positions since 2007. NRAs are proliferating in Europe; they are also conducted in Australia, Canada, New Zealand, and the United States, while regional RAs now exist for over 100 Dutch or British provinces or counties. Focused on the Dutch NRA (DNRA) and supported by specific examples, summaries and evaluations are given of its (1) scenario development, (2) impact assessment, (3) likelihood estimation, (4) risk diagram, and (5) capability analysis. Despite the DNRA's thorough elaboration, apparent weaknesses are lack of stakeholder involvement, possibility of false-positive risk scenarios, rigid multicriteria impact evaluation, hybrid methods for likelihood estimation, half-hearted use of a probability x effect definition of risk, forced comparison of divergent risk scenarios, and unclear decision rules for risk acceptance and safety enhancement. Such weaknesses are not unique for the DNRA. In line with a somewhat reserved encouragement by the OECD (Studies in Risk Management. Innovation in Country Risk Management. Paris: OECD, 2009), the scientific solidity of NRA results so far is questioned, and several improvements are suggested. One critical point is that expert-driven NRAs may preempt political judgments and decisions by national security authorities. External review and validation of major NRA components is recommended for strengthening overall results as a reliable basis for national and/or regional safety policies. Meanwhile, a broader, more transactional concept of risk may lead to better national and regional risk assessments.</p>