Uncivil wars: does Kantian Adaptive Networks Theory provide significant indications and warning of intra-state conflict

Reviewing inter-state warfare literature, I observe a correlation between the growth of international institutions, economic interchange, and levels of democracy, and corresponding decreases in incidents of international war. Conversely, internal conflicts comprise most conflicts in the post-1945 world, compared to inter-state conflicts. Within the larger intra-state literature, I note an underlying lineage to concepts evolving from Kant’s writings, specifically Kantian democratic peace theory (DPT) literature posited by Russett and ONeal (2001), and the informal social-juridical relationship within Metaphysics of Morals. From that pedigree, could a deeper understanding of internal political risks gained through application of Kantian DPT, interpolating Putnam’s (2002) Social Capital Theory (SCT) hold potential to provide researchers and policy makers insight into propensity for descent into conflict early enough to implement corrective actions? This investigation initially questions existence of intra-state processes performing similar ameliorating or exacerbating functions observed at inter-state level. Assessing that intra-state dynamics exhibit an elevated dependence on social factors necessitates adjustments to DPT to accommodate the adaptable nature of social constructs, leading to the designation of my theory as Kantian Adaptable Networks Theory (KANT). To test hypotheses, I start with DPT, incorporate elements of SCT, and identify a hybrid combination presenting greater explanatory power than either DPT or SCT factors alone. Fund for Peace’s Fragile State Indices (FSI) for 2005-2013 provides the dataset to conduct regression analysis to determine significance of DPT and/or SCT elements in static and time-series. Initial results indicate DPT/SCT provides explanatory value at the intra-state level with the Group Grievance factor generally presenting the most significant effect on probability of conflict. To assess resilience to intra-state conflict, I then explore brittleness of social-contract dynamics through the lens of Clausewitz’ center of gravity theory. In my exploration of applicability of KANT at the case level, I analyze FSI data for Syria and Kenya to determine resilience to shocks and ratcheted pressures, and explanation for differing outcomes. Based on the results of quantitative and case analysis, I present policy prescription considerations. Finally, I discuss additional avenues for follow-on research of issues and opportunities identified during the course of the investigation

Optimality Criteria for Probabilistic Numerical Methods

It is well understood that Bayesian decision theory and average case analysis are essentially identical. However, if one is interested in performing uncertainty quantification for a numerical task, it can be argued that standard approaches from the decision-theoretic framework are neither appropriate nor sufficient. Instead, we consider a particular optimality criterion from Bayesian experimental design and study its implied optimal information in the numerical context. This information is demonstrated to differ, in general, from the information that would be used in an average-case-optimal numerical method. The explicit connection to Bayesian experimental design suggests several distinct regimes in which optimal probabilistic numerical methods can be developed.Comment: Prepared for the proceedings of the RICAM workshop on Multivariate Algorithms and Information-Based Complexity, November 201

Expanding direction of the period doubling operator

We prove that the period doubling operator has an expanding direction at the fixed point. We use the induced operator, a ``Perron-Frobenius type operator'', to study the linearization of the period doubling operator at its fixed point. We then use a sequence of linear operators with finite ranks to study this induced operator. The proof is constructive. One can calculate the expanding direction and the rate of expansion of the period doubling operator at the fixed point

PHAST: A Fast Phage Search Tool

PHAge Search Tool (PHAST) is a web server designed to rapidly and accurately identify, annotate and graphically display prophage sequences within bacterial genomes or plasmids. It accepts either raw DNA sequence data or partially annotated GenBank formatted data and rapidly performs a number of database comparisons as well as phage ‘cornerstone’ feature identification steps to locate, annotate and display prophage sequences and prophage features. Relative to other prophage identification tools, PHAST is up to 40 times faster and up to 15% more sensitive. It is also able to process and annotate both raw DNA sequence data and Genbank files, provide richly annotated tables on prophage features and prophage ‘quality’ and distinguish between intact and incomplete prophage. PHAST also generates downloadable, high quality, interactive graphics that display all identified prophage components in both circular and linear genomic views. PHAST is available at (http://phast.wishartlab.com)

Experimental study of the role of physicochemical surface processing on the IN ability of mineral dust particles

During the measurement campaign FROST 2 (FReezing Of duST 2), the Leipzig Aerosol Cloud Interaction Simulator (LACIS) was used to investigate the influence of various surface modifications on the ice nucleating ability of Arizona Test Dust (ATD) particles in the immersion freezing mode. The dust particles were exposed to sulfuric acid vapor, to water vapor with and without the addition of ammonia gas, and heat using a thermodenuder operating at 250 °C. Size selected, quasi monodisperse particles with a mobility diameter of 300 nm were fed into LACIS and droplets grew on these particles such that each droplet contained a single particle. Temperature dependent frozen fractions of these droplets were determined in a temperature range between −40 °C ≤T≤−28 °C. The pure ATD particles nucleated ice over a broad temperature range with their freezing behavior being separated into two freezing branches characterized through different slopes in the frozen fraction vs. temperature curves. Coating the ATD particles with sulfuric acid resulted in the particles' IN potential significantly decreasing in the first freezing branch (T>−35 °C) and a slight increase in the second branch (T≤−35 °C). The addition of water vapor after the sulfuric acid coating caused the disappearance of the first freezing branch and a strong reduction of the IN ability in the second freezing branch. The presence of ammonia gas during water vapor exposure had a negligible effect on the particles' IN ability compared to the effect of water vapor. Heating in the thermodenuder led to a decreased IN ability of the sulfuric acid coated particles for both branches but the additional heat did not or only slightly change the IN ability of the pure ATD and the water vapor exposed sulfuric acid coated particles. In other words, the combination of both sulfuric acid and water vapor being present is a main cause for the ice active surface features of the ATD particles being destroyed. A possible explanation could be the chemical transformation of ice active metal silicates to metal sulfates. The strongly enhanced reaction between sulfuric acid and dust in the presence of water vapor and the resulting significant reductions in IN potential are of importance for atmospheric ice cloud formation. Our findings suggest that the IN concentration can decrease by up to one order of magnitude for the conditions investigated

Wii-Fit for Improving Gait and Balance in an Assisted Living Facility: A Pilot Study

Objectives. To determine the effects on balance and gait of a Wii-Fit program compared to a walking program in subjects with mild Alzheimer's dementia (AD). Methods. A prospective randomized (1 : 1) pilot study with two intervention arms was conducted in an assisted living facility with twenty-two mild AD subjects. In both groups the intervention occurred under supervision for 30 minutes daily, five times a week for eight weeks. Repeated measures ANOVA and paired t-tests were used to analyze changes. Results. Both groups showed improvement in Berg Balance Scale (BBS), Tinetti Test (TT) and Timed Up and Go (TUG) over 8 weeks. However, there was no statistically significant difference between the groups over time. Intragroup analysis in the Wii-Fit group showed significant improvement on BBS (P = 0.003), and TT (P = 0.013). The walking group showed a trend towards improvement on BBS (P = 0.06) and TUG (P = 0.07) and significant improvement in TT (P = 0.06). Conclusion. This pilot study demonstrates the safety and efficacy of Wii-Fit in an assisted living facility in subjects with mild AD. Use of Wii-Fit resulted in significant improvements in balance and gait comparable to those in the robust monitored walking program. These results need to be confirmed in a larger, methodologically sound study

The Multi-Epoch Nearby Cluster Survey: type Ia supernova rate measurement in z~0.1 clusters and the late-time delay time distribution

We describe the Multi-Epoch Nearby Cluster Survey (MENeaCS), designed to measure the cluster Type Ia supernova (SN Ia) rate in a sample of 57 X-ray selected galaxy clusters, with redshifts of 0.05 < z < 0.15. Utilizing our real time analysis pipeline, we spectroscopically confirmed twenty-three cluster SN Ia, four of which were intracluster events. Using our deep CFHT/Megacam imaging, we measured total stellar luminosities in each of our galaxy clusters, and we performed detailed supernova detection efficiency simulations. Bringing these ingredients together, we measure an overall cluster SN Ia rate within R_{200} (1 Mpc) of 0.042^{+0.012}_{-0.010}^{+0.010}_{-0.008} SNuM (0.049^{+0.016}_{-0.014}^{+0.005}_{-0.004} SNuM) and a SN Ia rate within red sequence galaxies of 0.041^{+0.015}_{-0.015}^{+0.005}_{-0.010} SNuM (0.041^{+0.019}_{-0.015}^{+0.005}_{-0.004} SNuM). The red sequence SN Ia rate is consistent with published rates in early type/elliptical galaxies in the `field'. Using our red sequence SN Ia rate, and other cluster SNe measurements in early type galaxies up to $z\sim1$, we derive the late time (>2 Gyr) delay time distribution (DTD) of SN Ia assuming a cluster early type galaxy star formation epoch of z_f=3. Assuming a power law form for the DTD, \Psi(t)\propto t^s, we find s=-1.62\pm0.54. This result is consistent with predictions for the double degenerate SN Ia progenitor scenario (s\sim-1), and is also in line with recent calculations for the double detonation explosion mechanism (s\sim-2). The most recent calculations of the single degenerate scenario delay time distribution predicts an order of magnitude drop off in SN Ia rate \sim 6-7 Gyr after stellar formation, and the observed cluster rates cannot rule this out.Comment: 35 pages, 14 figures, ApJ accepte

Intracluster supernovae in the Multi-epoch Nearby Cluster Survey

The Multi-Epoch Nearby Cluster Survey (MENeaCS) has discovered twenty-three cluster Type Ia supernovae (SNe) in the 58 X-ray selected galaxy clusters (0.05 < z < 0.15) surveyed. Four of our SN Ia events have no host galaxy on close inspection, and are likely intracluster SNe. Deep image stacks at the location of the candidate intracluster SNe put upper limits on the luminosities of faint hosts, with M_{r} > -13.0 mag and M_{g} > -12.5 mag in all cases. For such limits, the fraction of the cluster luminosity in faint dwarfs below our detection limit is <0.1%, assuming a standard cluster luminosity function. All four events occurred within ~600 kpc of the cluster center (projected), as defined by the position of the brightest cluster galaxy, and are more centrally concentrated than the cluster SN Ia population as a whole. After accounting for several observational biases that make intracluster SNe easier to discover and spectroscopically confirm, we calculate an intracluster stellar mass fraction of 0.16^{+0.13}_{-0.09} (68% CL) for all objects within R_{200}. If we assume that the intracluster stellar population is exclusively old, and the cluster galaxies themselves have a mix of stellar ages, we derive an upper limit on the intracluster stellar mass fraction of <0.47 (84% one-sided CL). When combined with the intragroup SNe results of McGee & Balogh, we confirm the declining intracluster stellar mass fraction as a function of halo mass reported by Gonzalez and collaborators. (Abridged)Comment: 24 pages, 8 figures, ApJ publishe

Variation in HIV-1 R5 macrophage-tropism correlates with sensitivity to reagents that block envelope: CD4 interactions but not with sensitivity to other entry inhibitors

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>HIV-1 R5 viruses cause most of the AIDS cases worldwide and are preferentially transmitted compared to CXCR4-using viruses. Furthermore, R5 viruses vary extensively in capacity to infect macrophages and highly macrophage-tropic variants are frequently identified in the brains of patients with dementia. Here, we investigated the sensitivity of R5 envelopes to a range of inhibitors and antibodies that block HIV entry. We studied a large panel of R5 envelopes, derived by PCR amplification without culture from brain, lymph node, blood and semen. These R5 envelopes conferred a wide range of macrophage tropism and included highly macrophage-tropic variants from brain and non-macrophage-tropic variants from lymph node.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>R5 macrophage-tropism correlated with sensitivity to inhibition by reagents that inhibited gp120:CD4 interactions. Thus, increasing macrophage-tropism was associated with increased sensitivity to soluble CD4 and to IgG-CD4 (PRO 542), but with increased resistance to the anti-CD4 monoclonal antibody (mab), Q4120. These observations were highly significant and are consistent with an increased affinity of envelope for CD4 for macrophage-tropic envelopes. No overall correlations were noted between R5 macrophage-tropism and sensitivity to CCR5 antagonists or to gp41 specific reagents. Intriguingly, there was a relationship between increasing macrophage-tropism and increased sensitivity to the CD4 binding site mab, b12, but decreased sensitivity to 2G12, a mab that binds a glycan complex on gp120.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Variation in R5 macrophage-tropism is caused by envelope variation that predominantly influences sensitivity to reagents that block gp120:CD4 interactions. Such variation has important implications for therapy using viral entry inhibitors and for the design of envelope antigens for vaccines.</p