Short-term forecasting of GDP using large monthly datasets: a pseudo real-time forecast evaluation exercise.

This paper evaluates different models for the short-term forecasting of real GDP growth in ten selected European countries and the euro area as a whole. Purely quarterly models are compared with models designed to exploit early releases of monthly indicators for the nowcast and forecast of quarterly GDP growth. Amongst the latter, we consider small bridge equations and forecast equations in which the bridging between monthly and quarterly data is achieved through a regression on factors extracted from large monthly datasets. The forecasting exercise is performed in a simulated real-time context, which takes account of publication lags in the individual series. In general, we find that models that exploit monthly information outperform models that use purely quarterly data and, amongst the former, factor models perform best.Bridge models ; Dynamic factor models ; real-time data flow.

Short-Term Forecasting of GDP Using Large Monthly Datasets: A Pseudo Real-Time Forecast Evaluation Exercise

This paper evaluates different models for the short-term forecasting of real GDP growth in ten selected European countries and the euro area as a whole. Purely quarterly models are compared with models designed to exploit early releases of monthly indicators for the nowcast and forecast of quarterly GDP growth. Amongst the latter, we consider small bridge equations and forecast equations in which the bridging between monthly and quarterly data is achieved through a regression on factors extracted from large monthly datasets. The forecasting exercise is performed in a simulated real-time context, which takes account of publication lags in the individual series. In general, we find that models that exploit monthly information outperform models that use purely quarterly data and, amongst the former, factor models perform best.Bridge models, Dynamic factor models, real-time data flow model

Human immunoglobulin G cannot inhibit fibrinogen binding by the genetically diverse A domain of Staphylococcus aureus fibronectinbinding protein A

The fibronectin-binding protein A (FnBPA) is a cell surface-associated protein of Staphylococcus aureus which mediates adherence to the host extracellular matrix and is important for bacterial virulence. Previously, substantial sequence diversity was found among strains in the fibrinogen-binding A domain of this protein, and 7 different isotypes were described. The effect of this sequence diversity on the human antibody response, in terms of both antibody production and antibody function, remains unclear. In this study, we identify five different FnBPA A domain isotypes based on the sequence results of 22 clinical S. aureus isolates, obtained from the same number of patients suffering from bacteremia. Using a bead-based Luminex technique, we measure the patients' total immunoglobulin G (IgG) against the 7 FnBPA isotypes at the onset and during the time course of bacteremia (median of 10 serum samples per patient over a median of 35 days). A significant increase in IgG against the FnBPA A domain, including the isotype carried by the infecting strain, is observed in only three out of 22 patients (14%) after the onset of bacteremia. Using a Luminex-based FnBPA-fibrinogen-binding assay, we find that preincubation of recombinant FnBPA isotypes with IgG from diverse patients does not interfere with binding to fibrinogen. This observation is confirmed using an alternative Luminex-based assay and enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA)

Detection of alpha-toxin and other virulence factors in biofilms of staphylococcus aureus on polystyrene and a human epidermalmodel

Background & Aim: The ability of Staphylococcus aureus to successfully colonize (a)biotic surfaces may be explained by biofilm formation and the actions of virulence factors. The aim of the present study was to establish the presence of 52 proteins, including virulence factors such as alpha-toxin, during biofilm formation of five different (methicillin resistant) S. aureus strains on Leiden human epidermal models (LEMs) and polystyrene surfaces (PS) using a competitive Luminex-based assay. Results: All five S. aureus strains formed biofilms on PS, whereas only three out of five strains formed biofilms on LEMs. Out of the 52 tested proteins, six functionally diverse proteins (ClfB, glucosaminidase, IsdA, IsaA, SACOL0688 and nuclease) were detected in biofilms of all strains on both PS and LEMs. At the same time, four toxins (alpha-toxin, gamma-hemolysin B and leukocidins D and E), two immune modulators (formyl peptide receptor-like inhibitory protein and Staphylococcal superantigen-like protein 1), and two other proteins (lipase and LytM) were detectable in biofilms by all five S. aureus strains on LEMs, but not on PS. In contrast, fibronectinbinding protein B (FnbpB) was detectable in biofilms by all S. aureus biofilms on PS, but not on LEMs. These data were largely confirmed by the results from proteomic and transcriptomic analyses and in case of alpha-toxin additionally by GFP-reporter technology. Conclusion: Functionally diverse virulence factors of (methicillin-resistant) S. aureus are present during biofilm formation on LEMs and PS. These results could aid in identifying novel targets for future treatment strategies against biofilm-associated infections

Molecular characterization of MRSA collected during national surveillance between 2008 and 2019 in the Netherlands

Background.Although the Netherlands is a country with a low endemic level, methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) poses a significant health care problem. Therefore, high coverage national MRSA surveillance has been in place since 1989. To monitor possible changes in the type-distribution and emergence of resistance and virulence, MRSA isolates are molecularly characterized.Methods.All 43,321 isolates from 36,520 persons, collected 2008–2019, were typed by multiple-locus variable number tandem repeats analysis (MLVA) with simultaneous PCR detection of the mecA, mecC and lukF-PV genes, indicative for PVL. Next-generation sequencing data of 4991 isolates from 4798 persons were used for whole genome multi-locus sequence typing (wgMLST) and identification of resistance and virulence genes.Results.We show temporal change in the molecular characteristics of the MRSA population with the proportion of PVL-positive isolates increasing from 15% in 2008–2010 to 25% in 2017–2019. In livestock-associated MRSA obtained from humans, PVL-positivity increases to 6% in 2017–2019 with isolates predominantly from regions with few pig farms. wgMLST reveals the presence of 35 genogroups with distinct resistance, virulence gene profiles and specimen origin. Typing shows prolonged persistent MRSA carriage with a mean carriage period of 407 days. There is a clear spatial and a weak temporal relationship between isolates that clustered in wgMLST, indicative for regional spread of MRSA strains.Conclusions.Using molecular characterization, this exceptionally large study shows genomic changes in the MRSA population at the national level. It reveals waxing and waning of types and genogroups and an increasing proportion of PVL-positive MRSA

Dynamic factor model with infinite-dimensional factor space:forecasting

The paper compares the pseudo real-time forecasting performance of three Dynamic Factor Models: (i) The standard principal-component model introduced by Stock and Watson in 2002, (ii) The model based on generalized principal components, introduced by Forni, Hallin, Lippi and Reichlin in 2005, (iii) The model recently proposed by Forni, Hallin, Lippi and Zaffaroni in 2015. We employ a large monthly dataset of macroeconomic and financial time series for the U.S. economy, which includes the Great Moderation, the Great Recession and the subsequent recovery (an update of the so-called Stock and Watson dataset). Using a rolling window for estimation and prediction, we find that (iii) significantly outperforms (i) and (ii) in the Great Moderation period for both Industrial Production and Inflation, that (iii) is also the best method for Inflation over the full sample. However, (iii) is outperformed by (ii) and (i) over the full sample for Industrial Production

Factors associated with worse lung function in cystic fibrosis patients with persistent staphylococcus aureus

Background Staphylococcus aureus is an important pathogen in cystic fibrosis (CF). However, it is not clear which factors are associated with worse lung function in patients with persistent S. aureus airway cultures. Our main hypothesis was that patients with high S. aureus density in their respiratory specimens would more likely experience worsening of their lung disease than patients with low bacterial loads. Methods Therefore, we conducted an observational prospective longitudinal multi-center study and assessed the association between lung function and S. aureus bacterial density in respiratory samples, co-infection with other CF-pathogens, nasal S. aureus carriage, clinical status, antibiotic therapy, IL-6- and IgG-levels against S. aureus virulence factors. Results 195 patients from 17 centers were followed; each patient had an average of 7 visits. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics and generalized linear mixed models. Our main hypothesis was only supported for patients providing throat specimens indicating that patients with higher density experienced a steeper lung function decline (p<0.001). Patients with exacerbations (n = 60), S. aureus small-colony variants (SCVs, n = 84) and co-infection with Stenotrophomonas maltophilia (n = 44) had worse lung function (p = 0.0068; p = 0.0011; p = 0.0103). Patients with SCVs were older (p = 0.0066) and more often treated with trimethoprim/sulfamethoxazole (p = 0.0078). IL-6 levels positively correlated with decreased lung function (p<0.001), S. aureus density in sputa (p = 0.0016), SCVs (p = 0.0209), exacerbations (p = 0.0041) and co-infections with S. maltophilia (p = 0.0195) or A. fumigatus (p = 0.0496). Conclusions In CF-patients with chronic S. aureus cultures, independent risk factors for worse lung function are high bacterial density in throat cultures, exacerbations, elevated IL-6 levels, presence of S. aureus SCVs and co-infection with S. maltophilia

Aortic stiffness in aortic stenosis assessed by cardiovascular MRI: a comparison between bicuspid and tricuspid valves

Objectives To compare aortic size and stiffness parameters on MRI between bicuspid aortic valve (BAV) and tricuspid aortic valve (TAV) patients with aortic stenosis (AS). Methods MRI was performed in 174 patients with asymptomatic moderate-severe AS (mean AVAI 0.57 ± 0.14 cm2/m2) and 23 controls on 3T scanners. Valve morphology was available/analysable in 169 patients: 63 BAV (41 type-I, 22 type-II) and 106 TAV. Aortic cross-sectional areas were measured at the level of the pulmonary artery bifurcation. The ascending and descending aorta (AA, DA) distensibility, and pulse wave velocity (PWV) around the aortic arch were calculated. Results The AA and DA areas were lower in the controls, with no difference in DA distensibility or PWV, but slightly lower AA distensibility than in the patient group. With increasing age, there was a decrease in distensibility and an increase in PWV. After correcting for age, the AA maximum cross-sectional area was higher in bicuspid vs. tricuspid patients (12.97 [11.10, 15.59] vs. 10.06 [8.57, 12.04] cm2, p < 0.001), but there were no significant differences in AA distensibility (p = 0.099), DA distensibility (p = 0.498) or PWV (p = 0.235). Patients with BAV type-II valves demonstrated a significantly higher AA distensibility and lower PWV compared to type-I, despite a trend towards higher AA area. Conclusions In patients with significant AS, BAV patients do not have increased aortic stiffness compared to those with TAV despite increased ascending aortic dimensions. Those with type-II BAV have less aortic stiffness despite greater dimensions. These results demonstrate a dissociation between aortic dilatation and stiffness and suggest that altered flow patterns may play a role. Key Points • Both cellular abnormalities secondary to genetic differences and abnormal flow patterns have been implicated in the pathophysiology of aortic dilatation and increased vascular complications associated with bicuspid aortic valves (BAV). • We demonstrate an increased ascending aortic size in patients with BAV and moderate to severe AS compared to TAV and controls, but no difference in aortic stiffness parameters, therefore suggesting a dissociation between dilatation and stiffness. • Sub-group analysis showed greater aortic size but lower stiffness parameters in those with BAV type-II AS compared to BAV type-I

Repeating fast radio bursts with WSRT/Apertif

Context. Repeating fast radio bursts (FRBs) present excellent opportunities to identify FRB progenitors and host environments as well as to decipher the underlying emission mechanism. Detailed studies of repeating FRBs might also hold clues as to the origin of FRBs as a population. Aims. We aim to detect bursts from the first two repeating FRBs, FRB 121102 (R1) and FRB 180814.J0422+73 (R2), and to characterise their repeat statistics. We also want to significantly improve the sky localisation of R2 and identify its host galaxy. Methods. We used the Westerbork Synthesis Radio Telescope to conduct extensive follow-up of these two repeating FRBs. The new phased-array feed system, Apertif, allows one to cover the entire sky position uncertainty of R2 with fine spatial resolution in a single pointing. The data were searched for bursts around the known dispersion measures of the two sources. We characterise the energy distribution and the clustering of detected R1 bursts. Results. We detected 30 bursts from R1. The non-Poissonian nature is clearly evident from the burst arrival times, which is consistent with earlier claims. Our measurements indicate a dispersion measure (DM) of 563.5(2) pc cm(-3), suggesting a significant increase in DM over the past few years. Assuming a constant position angle across the burst, we place an upper limit of 8% on the linear polarisation fraction for the brightest burst in our sample. We did not detect any bursts from R2. Conclusions. A single power-law might not fit the R1 burst energy distribution across the full energy range or widely separated detections. Our observations provide improved constraints on the clustering of R1 bursts. Our stringent upper limits on the linear polarisation fraction imply a significant depolarisation, either intrinsic to the emission mechanism or caused by the intervening medium at 1400 MHz, which is not observed at higher frequencies. The non-detection of any bursts from R2, despite nearly 300 h of observations, implies either a highly clustered nature of the bursts, a steep spectral index, or a combination of the two assuming that the source is still active. Another possibility is that R2 has turned off completely, either permanently or for an extended period of time