49 research outputs found
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Impact of increased horizontal resolution in coupled and atmosphere-only models of the HadGEM1 family upon the climate patterns of South America
This study investigates the impact of increased horizontal resolution in coupled and atmosphere-only global climate models on the simulation of climate patterns in South America (SA). We analyze simulations of the HadGEM1 model family with three different horizontal resolutions in the atmosphere—N96 (~135 km at 50°N), N144 (~90 km) and N216 (~60 km)—and two different resolutions in the ocean—1° and 1/3°. In general, the coupled simulation with the highest resolution (60 km in the atmosphere and 1/3° in the ocean) has smaller systematic errors in seasonal mean precipitation, temperature and circulation over SA than the atmosphere-only model at all resolutions. The models, both coupled and atmosphere-only, properly simulate spatial patterns of the seasonal shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), the formation and positioning of the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ), and the subtropical Atlantic and Pacific highs. However, the models overestimate rainfall, especially in the ITCZ and over the western border of high-elevation areas such as southern Chile. The coupling, combined with higher resolution, result in a more realistic spatial pattern of rain, particularly over the Atlantic ITCZ and the continental branch of the SACZ. All models correctly simulate the phase and amplitude of the annual cycle of precipitation and air temperature over most of South America. The overall results show that despite some problems, increasing the resolution in the HadGEM1 model family results in a more realistic representation of climate patterns over South America and the adjacent oceans
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A comprehensive analysis of coherent rainfall patterns in China and potential drivers. Part I: interannual variability
Interannual rainfall variability in China affects agriculture, infrastructure and water resource management. To improve its understanding and prediction, many studies have associated precipitation variability with particular causes for specific seasons and regions. Here, a consistent and objective method, Empirical Orthogonal Teleconnection (EOT) analysis, is applied to 1951–2007 high-resolution precipitation observations over China in all seasons. Instead of maximizing the explained space–time variance, the method identifies regions in China that best explain the temporal variability in domain-averaged rainfall. The EOT method is validated by the reproduction of known relationships to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO): high positive correlations with ENSO are found in eastern China in winter, along the Yangtze River in summer, and in southeast China during spring. New findings include that wintertime rainfall variability along the southeast coast is associated with anomalous convection over the tropical eastern Atlantic and communicated to China through a zonal wavenumber-three Rossby wave. Furthermore, spring rainfall variability in the Yangtze valley is related to upper-tropospheric midlatitude perturbations that are part of a Rossby wave pattern with its origin in the North Atlantic. A circumglobal wave pattern in the northern hemisphere is also associated with autumn precipitation variability in eastern areas. The analysis is objective, comprehensive, and produces timeseries that are tied to specific locations in China. This facilitates the interpretation of associated dynamical processes, is useful for understanding the regional hydrological cycle, and allows the results to serve as a benchmark for assessing general circulation models
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Sahel decadal rainfall variability and the role of model horizontal resolution
Substantial low-frequency rainfall fluctuations occurred in the Sahel throughout the twentieth century, causing devastating drought. Modeling these low-frequency rainfall fluctuations has remained problematic for climate models for many years. Here we show using a combination of state-of-the-art rainfall observations and high-resolution global climate models that changes in organized heavy rainfall events carry most of the rainfall variability in the Sahel at multiannual to decadal time scales. Ability to produce intense, organized convection allows climate models to correctly simulate the magnitude of late-twentieth century rainfall change, underlining the importance of model resolution. Increasing model resolution allows a better coupling between large-scale circulation changes and regional rainfall processes over the Sahel. These results provide a strong basis for developing more reliable and skilful long-term predictions of rainfall (seasons to years) which could benefit many sectors in the region by allowing early adaptation to impending extremes
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Moisture sources for East Asian precipitation: mean seasonal cycle and interannual variability
This study investigates the moisture sources that supply East Asian (EA)
precipitation and their interannual variability. Moisture sources are tracked
using theWater Accounting Model-2layers (WAM-2layers), based on the Eulerian
framework. WAM-2layers is applied to five subregions over EA, driven
by the ERA-Interim reanalysis from 1979 to 2015. Due to differences in regional
atmospheric circulation and in hydrological and topographic features,
the mean moisture sources vary among EA subregions. The tropical oceanic
source dominates southeastern EA, while the extratropical continental source
dominates other EA subregions. The moisture sources experience large seasonal
variations, due to the seasonal cycle of the EA monsoon, the freeze-thaw
cycle of the Eurasian continent and local moisture recycling over the Tibetan
Plateau. The interannual variability of moisture sources is linked to interannual
modes of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system. The negative phase
of the North Atlantic Oscillation increases moisture transport to northwestern
EA in winter by driving a southward shift in the mid-latitude westerly jet
over theMediterranean Sea, the Black Sea and the Caspian Sea. Atmospheric
moisture lifetime is also reduced due to the enhanced westerlies. In summers
following El Ni ˜nos, an anti-cyclonic anomaly over the western North Pacific
increases moisture supplied from the South China Sea to the southeastern EA
and shortens the travelling distance. A stronger Somali Jet in summer increases
moisture to the Tibetan Plateau and therefore increases precipitation
over the eastern Tibetan Plateau. The methods and findings in this study can
be used to evaluate hydrological features in climate simulations
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Tropical cyclones in the UPSCALE ensemble of high resolution global climate models
The UPSCALE (UK on PRACE: weather-resolving Simulations of Climate for globAL Environmental risk) project, using PRACE (Partnership for Advanced Computing in Europe) resources, constructed and ran an ensemble of atmosphere-only global climate model simulations, using the Met Office Unified Model GA3 configuration. Each simulation is 27 years in length for both the present climate and an end-of-century future climate, at resolutions of N96 (130 km), N216 (60 km) and N512 (25 km), in order to study the impact of model resolution on high impact climate features such as tropical cyclones. Increased model resolution is found to improve the simulated frequency of explicitly tracked tropical cyclones, and correlations of interannual variability in the North Atlantic and North West Pacific lie between 0.6 and 0.75. Improvements in the deficit of genesis in the eastern North Atlantic as resolution increases appear to be related to the representation of African Easterly Waves and the African Easterly Jet. However, the intensity of the modelled tropical cyclones as measured by 10 m wind speed remain weak, and there is no indication of convergence over this range of resolutions. In the future climate ensemble, there is a reduction of 50% in the frequency of Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclones, while in the Northern Hemisphere there is a reduction in the North Atlantic, and a shift in the Pacific with peak intensities becoming more common in the Central Pacific. There is also a change in tropical cyclone intensities, with the future climate having fewer weak storms and proportionally more stronger storm
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The benefits of global high-resolution for climate simulation: process-understanding and the enabling of stakeholder decisions at the regional scale
A perspective on current and future capabilities in global high-resolution climate simulation for assessing climate risks over next few decades, including advances in process representation and analysis, justifying the emergence of dedicated, coordinated experimental protocols.
The timescales of the Paris Climate Agreement indicate urgent action is required on climate policies over the next few decades, in order to avoid the worst risks posed by climate change. On these relatively short timescales the combined effect of climate variability and change are both key drivers of extreme events, with decadal timescales also important for infrastructure planning. Hence, in order to assess climate risk on such timescales, we require climate models to be able to represent key aspects of both internally driven climate variability, as well as the response to changing forcings.
In this paper we argue that we now have the modelling capability to address these requirements - specifically with global models having horizontal resolutions considerably enhanced from those typically used in previous IPCC and CMIP exercises. The improved representation of weather and climate processes in such models underpins our enhanced confidence in predictions and projections, as well as providing improved forcing to regional models, which are better able to represent local-scale extremes (such as convective precipitation). We choose the global water cycle as an illustrative example, because it is governed by a chain of processes for which there is growing evidence of the benefits of higher resolution. At the same time it comprises key processes involved in many of the expected future climate extremes (e.g. flooding, drought, tropical and mid-latitude storms)
COSMO-CLM regional climate simulations in the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) framework: a review
In the last decade, the Climate Limited-area Modeling Community (CLM-Community) has contributed to the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) with an extensive set of regional climate simulations. Using several versions of the COSMO-CLM-Community model, ERA-Interim reanalysis and eight global climate models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) were dynamically downscaled with horizontal grid spacings of 0.44∘ (∼ 50 km), 0.22∘ (∼ 25 km), and 0.11∘ (∼ 12 km) over the CORDEX domains Europe, South Asia, East Asia, Australasia, and Africa. This major effort resulted in 80 regional climate simulations publicly available through the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) web portals for use in impact studies and climate scenario assessments. Here we review the production of these simulations and assess their results in terms of mean near-surface temperature and precipitation to aid the future design of the COSMO-CLM model simulations. It is found that a domain-specific parameter tuning is beneficial, while increasing horizontal model resolution (from 50 to 25 or 12 km grid spacing) alone does not always improve the performance of the simulation. Moreover, the COSMO-CLM performance depends on the driving data. This is generally more important than the dependence on horizontal resolution, model version, and configuration. Our results emphasize the importance of performing regional climate projections in a coordinated way, where guidance from both the global (GCM) and regional (RCM) climate modeling communities is needed to increase the reliability of the GCM–RCM modeling chain
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The resolution sensitivity of the Asian summer monsoon and its inter-model comparison between MRI-AGCM and MetUM
In this study, we compare the resolution sensitivity of the Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM) in two Atmospheric General Circulation Models (AGCMs): the MRI-AGCM and the MetUM. We analyze the MetUM at three different resolutions, N96 (approximately 200-km mesh on the equator), N216 (90-km mesh) and N512 (40-km mesh), and the MRI-AGCM at TL95 (approximately 180-km mesh on the equator), TL319 (60-km mesh), and TL959 (20-km mesh). The MRI-AGCM and the MetUM both show decreasing precipitation over the western Pacific with increasing resolution, but their precipitation responses differ over the Indian Ocean. In MRI-AGCM, a large precipitation increase appears off the equator (5–20°N). In MetUM, this off-equatorial precipitation increase is less significant and precipitation decreases over the equator. Moisture budget analysis demonstrates that a changing in moisture flux convergence at higher resolution is related to the precipitation response. Orographic effects, intra-seasonal variability and the representation of the meridional thermal gradient are explored as possible causes of the resolution sensitivity. Both high-resolution AGCMs (TL959 and N512) can represent steep topography, which anchors the rainfall pattern over south Asia and the Maritime Continent. In MRI-AGCM, representation of low pressure systems in TL959 also contributes to the rainfall pattern. Furthermore, the seasonal evolution of the meridional thermal gradient appears to be more accurate at higher resolution, particularly in the MRI-AGCM. These findings emphasize that the impact of resolution is only robust across the two AGCMs for some features of the ASM, and highlights the importance of multi-model studies of GCM resolution sensitivity