Cuban Annexation, Slave Power Paranoia, And the Collapse of the Democratic Party In Maine, 1850-1854

This article reviews the impact of attempts to annex Cuba to the United States prior to the Civil and also the direct impact of this issue on the politics of the State of Maine

Development of an operational, risk-based approach to surface water flood forecasting

Surface water flooding occurs regularly across England and Wales, especially during the summer months. It is widely acknowledged that surface water flooding presents a particular challenge to forecasters because of the difficulties inherent in forecasting intense localised rainfall and the highly complex runoff and drainage processes which operate at the surface, particularly in urban areas. The Flood Forecasting Centre (FFC) has a responsibility to provide guidance on the risk of surface water flooding to Category 1 and 2 responders across England and Wales. Consequently, there is the requirement for improved methods for forecasting surface water flood risk and the FFC is currently involved in developing and trialling a novel surface water flood forecasting system, the Surface Water Flooding Hazard Impact Model (SWF HIM). The SWF HIM offers significant advances over existing surface water flood forecasting methods used by the FFC, including provision of a risk-based approach. The SWF HIM links probabilistic runoff forecasts from the Centre for Ecology & Hydrology’s Grid-to-Grid model with a library of pre-calculated surface water impact information compiled by the Health and Safety Laboratory. These probabilistic runoff forecasts are combined with impact information to provide a forecast of surface water flood risk at a 1km2 resolution across England and Wales. This presentation outlines the methodology together with some initial results from the trial. The work has been undertaken as part of the UK’s Natural Hazards Partnership (NHP) and also benefits from the close working relationship between the Environment Agency and the Met Office through the FFC

The social and scientific values that shape national climate scenarios: a comparison of the Netherlands, Switzerland and the UK

This paper seeks to understand why climate information is produced differently from country to country. To do this, we critically examined and compared the social and scientific values that shaped the production of three national climate scenarios in the Netherlands, Switzerland and the UK. A comparative analysis of documentary materials and expert interviews linked to the climate scenarios was performed. Our findings reveal a new typology of use-inspired research in climate science for decision-making: (i) innovators, where the advancement of science is the main objective; (ii) consolidators, where knowledge exchanges and networks are prioritised; and (iii) collaborators, where the needs of users are put first and foremost. These different values over what constitutes ‘good’ science for decision-making are mirrored in the way users were involved in the production process: (i) elicitation, where scientists have privileged decision-making power; (ii) representation, where multiple organisations mediate on behalf of individual users; and (iii) participation, where a multitude of users interact with scientists in an equal partnership. These differences help explain why climate knowledge gains its credibility and legitimacy differently even when the information itself might not be judged as salient and usable. If the push to deliberately co-produce climate knowledge is not sensitive to the national civic epistemology at play in each country, scientist–user interactions may fail to deliver more ‘usable’ climate information

The monetary benefit of early flood warnings in Europe

Effective disaster risk management relies on science-based solutions to close the gap between prevention and preparedness measures. The consultation on the United Nations post-2015 framework for disaster risk reduction highlights the need for cross-border early warning systems to strengthen the preparedness phases of disaster risk management, in order to save lives and property and reduce the overall impact of severe events. Continental and global scale flood forecasting systems provide vital early flood warning information to national and international civil protection authorities, who can use this information to make decisions on how to prepare for upcoming floods. Here the potential monetary benefits of early flood warnings are estimated based on the forecasts of the continental-scale European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) using existing flood damage cost information and calculations of potential avoided flood damages. The benefits are of the order of 400 Euro for every 1 Euro invested. A sensitivity analysis is performed in order to test the uncertainty in the method and develop an envelope of potential monetary benefits of EFAS warnings. The results provide clear evidence that there is likely a substantial monetary benefit in this cross-border continental-scale flood early warning system. This supports the wider drive to implement early warning systems at the continental or global scale to improve our resilience to natural hazards

Genomic epidemiology of third-generation cephalosporin-resistant Escherichia coli from Argentinian pig and dairy farms reveals animal-specific patterns of co-resistance and resistance mechanisms

Control measures are being introduced globally to reduce the prevalence of antibiotic resistance (ABR) in bacteria on farms. However, little is known about the current prevalence and molecular ecology of ABR in bacterial species with the potential to be key opportunistic human pathogens, such as Escherichia coli, on South American farms. Working with 30 dairy cattle farms and 40 pig farms across two provinces in central-eastern Argentina, we report a comprehensive genomic analysis of third-generation cephalosporin-resistant (3GC-R) E. coli, which were recovered from 34.8% (cattle) and 47.8% (pigs) of samples from fecally contaminated sites. Phylogenetic analysis revealed substantial diversity suggestive of long-term horizontal and vertical transmission of 3GC-R mechanisms. CTX-M-15 and CTX-M-2 were more often produced by isolates from dairy farms, while CTX-M-8 and CMY-2 and co-carriage of amoxicillin/clavulanate resistance and florfenicol resistance were more common in isolates from pig farms. This suggests different selective pressures for antibiotic use in these two animal types. We identified the β-lactamase gene blaROB, which has previously only been reported in the family Pasteurellaceae, in 3GC-R E. coli. blaROB was found alongside a novel florfenicol resistance gene, ydhC, also mobilized from a pig pathogen as part of a new composite transposon. As the first comprehensive genomic survey of 3GC-R E. coli in Argentina, these data set a baseline from which to measure the effects of interventions aimed at reducing on-farm ABR and provide an opportunity to investigate the zoonotic transmission of resistant bacteria in this region