A Multi-Season Study of the Effects of MODIS Sea-Surface Temperatures on Operational WRF Forecasts at NWS Miami, FL

Studies at the Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPORT) Center have suggested that the use of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sea-surface temperature (SST) composites in regional weather forecast models can have a significant positive impact on short-term numerical weather prediction in coastal regions. Recent work by LaCasse et al (2007, Monthly Weather Review) highlights lower atmospheric differences in regional numerical simulations over the Florida offshore waters using 2-km SST composites derived from the MODIS instrument aboard the polar-orbiting Aqua and Terra Earth Observing System satellites. To help quantify the value of this impact on NWS Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs), the SPORT Center and the NWS WFO at Miami, FL (MIA) are collaborating on a project to investigate the impact of using the high-resolution MODIS SST fields within the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) prediction system. The project's goal is to determine whether more accurate specification of the lower-boundary forcing within WRF will result in improved land/sea fluxes and hence, more accurate evolution of coastal mesoscale circulations and the associated sensible weather elements. The NWS MIA is currently running WRF in real-time to support daily forecast operations, using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Nonhydrostatic Mesoscale Model dynamical core within the NWS Science and Training Resource Center's Environmental Modeling System (EMS) software. Twenty-seven hour forecasts are run dally initialized at 0300, 0900, 1500, and 2100 UTC on a domain with 4-km grid spacing covering the southern half of Florida and adjacent waters of the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean. Each model run is initialized using the Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS) analyses available in AWIPS. The SSTs are initialized with the NCEP Real-Time Global (RTG) analyses at 1/12deg resolution (approx.9 km); however, the RTG product does not exhibit fine-scale details consistent with its grid resolution. SPORT is conducting parallel WRF EMS runs identical to the operational runs at NWS MIA except for the use of MODIS SST composites in place of the RTG product as the initial and boundary conditions over water, The MODIS SST composites for initializing the SPORT WRF runs are generated on a 2-km grid four times daily at 0400, 0700, 1600, and 1900 UTC, based on the times of the overhead passes of the Aqua and Terra satellites. The incorporation of the MODIS SST data into the SPORT WRF runs is staggered such that SSTs are updated with a new composite every six hours in each of the WRF runs. From mid-February to July 2007, over 500 parallel WRF simulations have been collected for analysis and verification. This paper will present verification results comparing the NWS MIA operational WRF runs to the SPORT experimental runs, and highlight any substantial differences noted in the predicted mesoscale phenomena for specific cases

Altered glucocorticoid metabolism represents a feature of macroph-aging

The aging process is characterized by a chronic, low-grade inflammatory state, termed "inflammaging." It has been suggested that macrophage activation plays a key role in the induction and maintenance of this state. In the present study, we aimed to elucidate the mechanisms responsible for aging-associated changes in the myeloid compartment of mice. The aging phenotype, characterized by elevated cytokine production, was associated with a dysfunction of the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis and diminished serum corticosteroid levels. In particular, the concentration of corticosterone, the major active glucocorticoid in rodents, was decreased. This could be explained by an impaired expression and activity of 11β-hydroxysteroid dehydrogenase type 1 (11β-HSD1), an enzyme that determines the extent of cellular glucocorticoid responses by reducing the corticosteroids cortisone/11-dehydrocorticosterone to their active forms cortisol/corticosterone, in aged macrophages and peripheral leukocytes. These changes were accompanied by a downregulation of the glucocorticoid receptor target gene glucocorticoid-induced leucine zipper (GILZ) in vitro and in vivo. Since GILZ plays a central role in macrophage activation, we hypothesized that the loss of GILZ contributed to the process of macroph-aging. The phenotype of macrophages from aged mice was indeed mimicked in young GILZ knockout mice. In summary, the current study provides insight into the role of glucocorticoid metabolism and GILZ regulation during aging

Improving the Representation of Snow Crystal Properties within a Single-Moment Microphysics Scheme

The assumptions of a single-moment microphysics scheme (NASA Goddard) were evaluated using a variety of surface, aircraft and radar data sets. Fixed distribution intercepts and snow bulk densities fail to represent the vertical variability and diversity of crystal populations for this event. Temperature-based equations have merit, but they can be adversely affected by complex temperature profiles that are inverted or isothermal. Column-based approaches can mitigate complex profiles of temperature but are restricted by the ability of the model to represent cloud depth. Spheres are insufficient for use in CloudSat reflectivity comparisons due to Mie resonance, but reasonable for Rayleigh scattering applications. Microphysics schemes will benefit from a greater range of snow crystal characteristics to accommodate naturally occurring diversity

The WRF Lightning Forecast Algorithm: Sensitivities to Microphysics and Other Physics Schemes in the Weather Research and Forecasting Model

No abstract availabl

The intracellular detection of MIP-1beta enhances the capacity to detect IFN-gamma mediated HIV-1-specific CD8 T-cell responses in a flow cytometric setting providing a sensitive alternative to the ELISPOT

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>T-cell mediated immunity likely plays an important role in controlling HIV-1 infection and progression to AIDS. Several candidate vaccines against HIV-1 aim at stimulating cellular immune responses, either alone or together with the induction of neutralizing antibodies, and assays able to measure CD8 and CD4 T-cell responses need to be implemented. At present, the IFN-γ-based ELISPOT assay is considered the gold standard and it is broadly preferred as primary assay for detection of antigen-specific T-cell responses in vaccine trials. However, in spite of its high sensitivity, the measurement of the sole IFN-γ production provides limited information on the quality of the immune response. On the other hand, the introduction of polychromatic flow-cytometry-based assays such as the intracellular cytokine staining (ICS) strongly improved the capacity to detect several markers on a single cell level.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The cumulative analysis of 275 samples from 31 different HIV-1 infected individuals using an ICS staining procedure optimized by our laboratories revealed that, following antigenic stimulation, IFN-γ producing T-cells were also producing MIP-1β whereas T-cells characterized by the sole production of IFN-γ were rare. Since the analysis of the combination of two functions decreases the background and the measurement of the IFN-γ+ MIP-1β+ T-cells was equivalent to the measurement of the total IFN-γ+ T-cells, we adopted the IFN-γ+ MIP-1β+ data analysis system to evaluate IFN-γ-based, antigen-specific T-cell responses. Comparison of our ICS assay with ELISPOT assays performed in two different experienced laboratories demonstrated that the IFN-γ+ MIP-1β+ data analysis system increased the sensitivity of the ICS up to levels comparable to the sensitivity of the ELISPOT assay.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The IFN-γ+ MIP-1β+ data evaluation system provides a clear advantage for the detection of low magnitude HIV-1-specific responses. These results are important to guide the choice for suitable highly sensitive immune assays and to build reagent panels able to accurately characterize the phenotype and function of responding T-cells. More importantly, the ICS assay can be used as primary assay to evaluate HIV-1-specific responses without losing sensitivity in comparison to the ELISPOT assay.</p

Change in function, pain, and quality of life following structured nonoperative treatment in patients with degenerative cervical myelopathy: a systematic review

Study Design: Systematic review. Objectives: The objective of this study was to conduct a systematic review to determine (1) change in function, pain, and quality of life following structured nonoperative treatment for degenerative cervical myelopathy (DCM); (2) variability of change in function, pain, and quality of life following different types of structured nonoperative treatment; (3) differences in outcomes observed between certain subgroups (eg, baseline severity score, duration of symptoms); and (4) negative outcomes and harms resulting from structured nonoperative treatment. Methods: A systematic search was conducted in Embase, PubMed, and the Cochrane Collaboration for articles published between January 1, 1950, and February 9, 2015. Studies were included if they evaluated outcomes following structured nonoperative treatment, including therapeutic exercise, manual therapy, cervical bracing, and/or traction. The quality of each study was evaluated using the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale, and strength of the overall body of evidence was rated using guidelines outlined by the Grading of Recommendation Assessment, Development and Evaluation Working Group. Results: Of the 570 retrieved citations, 8 met inclusion criteria and were summarized in this review. Based on our results, there is very low evidence to suggest that structured nonoperative treatment for DCM results in either a positive or negative change in function as evaluated by the Japanese Orthopaedic Association score. Conclusion: There is a lack of evidence to determine the role of nonoperative treatment in patients with DCM. However, in the majority of studies, patients did not achieve clinically significant gains in function following structured nonoperative treatment. Furthermore, 23% to 54% of patients managed nonoperatively subsequently underwent surgical treatment

Nef-specific CD45RA+ CD8+ T cells secreting MIP-1β but not IFN-γ are associated with nonprogressive HIV-1 infection

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Long-term survival of HIV-1 infected individuals is usually achieved by continuous administration of combination antiretroviral therapy (ART). An exception to this scenario is represented by HIV-1 infected nonprogressors (NP) which maintain relatively high circulating CD4+ T cells without clinical symptoms for several years in the absence of ART. Several lines of evidence indicate an important role of the T-cell response in the modulation of HIV-1 infection during the acute and chronic phase of the disease.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We analyzed the functional and the differentiation phenotype of Nef- and Tat-specific CD8+ T cells in a cohort of HIV-1 infected NP in comparison to progressors, ART-treated seropositive individuals and individuals undergoing a single cycle of ART interruption. We observed that a distinctive feature of NP is the presence of Nef-specific CD45RA+ CD8+ T cells secreting MIP-1beta but not IFN-gamma. This population was present in 7 out of 11 NP. CD45RA+ IFN-gamma^negMIP-1beta+ CD8+ T cells were not detected in HIV-1 infected individuals under ART or withdrawing from ART and experiencing a rebounding viral replication. In addition, we detected Nef-specific CD45RA+ IFN-gamma^negMIP-1beta+ CD8+ T cells in only 1 out of 10 HIV-1 infected individuals with untreated progressive disease.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The novel antigen-specific CD45RA+ IFN-gamma^negMIP-1beta+ CD8+ T cell population represents a new candidate marker of long-term natural control of HIV-1 disease progression and a relevant functional T-cell subset in the evaluation of the immune responses induced by candidate HIV-1 vaccines.</p

THE COMMUNITY LEVERAGED UNIFIED ENSEMBLE (CLUE) IN THE 2016 NOAA/HAZARDOUS WEATHER TESTBED SPRING FORECASTING EXPERIMENT

One primary goal of annual Spring Forecasting Experiments (SFEs), which are coorganized by NOAA’s National Severe Storms Laboratory and Storm Prediction Center and conducted in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Hazardous Weather Testbed, is documenting performance characteristics of experimental, convection-allowing modeling systems (CAMs). Since 2007, the number of CAMs (including CAM ensembles) examined in the SFEs has increased dramatically, peaking at six different CAM ensembles in 2015. Meanwhile, major advances have been made in creating, importing, processing, verifying, and developing tools for analyzing and visualizing these large and complex datasets. However, progress toward identifying optimal CAM ensemble configurations has been inhibited because the different CAM systems have been independently designed, making it difficult to attribute differences in performance characteristics. Thus, for the 2016 SFE, a much more coordinated effort among many collaborators was made by agreeing on a set of model specifications (e.g., model version, grid spacing, domain size, and physics) so that the simulations contributed by each collaborator could be combined to form one large, carefully designed ensemble known as the Community Leveraged Unified Ensemble (CLUE). The 2016 CLUE was composed of 65 members contributed by five research institutions and represents an unprecedented effort to enable an evidence-driven decision process to help guide NOAA’s operational modeling efforts. Eight unique experiments were designed within the CLUE framework to examine issues directly relevant to the design of NOAA’s future operational CAM-based ensembles. This article will highlight the CLUE design and present results from one of the experiments examining the impact of single versus multicore CAM ensemble configurations

THE COMMUNITY LEVERAGED UNIFIED ENSEMBLE (CLUE) IN THE 2016 NOAA/HAZARDOUS WEATHER TESTBED SPRING FORECASTING EXPERIMENT

One primary goal of annual Spring Forecasting Experiments (SFEs), which are coorganized by NOAA’s National Severe Storms Laboratory and Storm Prediction Center and conducted in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Hazardous Weather Testbed, is documenting performance characteristics of experimental, convection-allowing modeling systems (CAMs). Since 2007, the number of CAMs (including CAM ensembles) examined in the SFEs has increased dramatically, peaking at six different CAM ensembles in 2015. Meanwhile, major advances have been made in creating, importing, processing, verifying, and developing tools for analyzing and visualizing these large and complex datasets. However, progress toward identifying optimal CAM ensemble configurations has been inhibited because the different CAM systems have been independently designed, making it difficult to attribute differences in performance characteristics. Thus, for the 2016 SFE, a much more coordinated effort among many collaborators was made by agreeing on a set of model specifications (e.g., model version, grid spacing, domain size, and physics) so that the simulations contributed by each collaborator could be combined to form one large, carefully designed ensemble known as the Community Leveraged Unified Ensemble (CLUE). The 2016 CLUE was composed of 65 members contributed by five research institutions and represents an unprecedented effort to enable an evidence-driven decision process to help guide NOAA’s operational modeling efforts. Eight unique experiments were designed within the CLUE framework to examine issues directly relevant to the design of NOAA’s future operational CAM-based ensembles. This article will highlight the CLUE design and present results from one of the experiments examining the impact of single versus multicore CAM ensemble configurations

Lead-DBS v3.0: Mapping Deep Brain Stimulation Effects to Local Anatomy and Global Networks.

Following its introduction in 2014 and with support of a broad international community, the open-source toolbox Lead-DBS has evolved into a comprehensive neuroimaging platform dedicated to localizing, reconstructing, and visualizing electrodes implanted in the human brain, in the context of deep brain stimulation (DBS) and epilepsy monitoring. Expanding clinical indications for DBS, increasing availability of related research tools, and a growing community of clinician-scientist researchers, however, have led to an ongoing need to maintain, update, and standardize the codebase of Lead-DBS. Major development efforts of the platform in recent years have now yielded an end-to-end solution for DBS-based neuroimaging analysis allowing comprehensive image preprocessing, lead localization, stimulation volume modeling, and statistical analysis within a single tool. The aim of the present manuscript is to introduce fundamental additions to the Lead-DBS pipeline including a deformation warpfield editor and novel algorithms for electrode localization. Furthermore, we introduce a total of three comprehensive tools to map DBS effects to local, tract- and brain network-levels. These updates are demonstrated using a single patient example (for subject-level analysis), as well as a retrospective cohort of 51 Parkinson's disease patients who underwent DBS of the subthalamic nucleus (for group-level analysis). Their applicability is further demonstrated by comparing the various methodological choices and the amount of explained variance in clinical outcomes across analysis streams. Finally, based on an increasing need to standardize folder and file naming specifications across research groups in neuroscience, we introduce the brain imaging data structure (BIDS) derivative standard for Lead-DBS. Thus, this multi-institutional collaborative effort represents an important stage in the evolution of a comprehensive, open-source pipeline for DBS imaging and connectomics