Repensar la política macroeconómica

The great moderation lulled macroeconomists and policymakers alike in the belief that we knew how to conduct macroeconomic policy. The crisis clearly forces to question that assessment. This paper reviews the main elements of the pre-crisis consensus, identify where we were wrong and what tenets of the pre-crisis framework still hold, and take a tentative first pass at the contours of a new macroeconomic policy framework.macroeconomic policy, macroprudential regulation, inflation targets, automatic stabilizers

Repensar la política macroeconómica

La gran moderación adormeció a los macroeconomistas y a los diseñadores de política con la creencia de que sabían cómo orientar la política macroeconómica. La crisis obliga claramente a cuestionar esa valoración. El artículo revisa los principales elementos del consenso anterior a la crisis, identificando dónde se estaba equivocados y qué principios del marco anterior a la crisis aún se mantienen; también, se da un primer paso para esbozar un nuevo marco de política macroeconómica

Property Prices and Real Estate Financing in a Turbulent World

On 15th November 2012 in Copenhagen, SUERF and Nykredit in association with Danmarks Nationalbank organised a conference on “Property prices and real estate financing in a turbulent world.” The papers included in this SUERF Study are based on contributions to the conference

Thirty-Day Complications, Unplanned Hospital Encounters, and Mortality after Endosonography and/or Guided Bronchoscopy: A Prospective Study

Background and objective: Limited data exist regarding the adverse events of advanced diagnostic bronchoscopy, with most of the available information derived from retrospective datasets that primarily focus on early complications. Methods: We conducted a 15-month prospective cohort study among consecutive patients undergoing endosonography and/or guided bronchoscopy under general anesthesia. We evaluated the 30-day incidence of severe complications, any complication, unplanned hospital encounters, and deaths. Additionally, we analyzed the time of onset (immediate, within 1 h of the procedure; early, 1 h–24 h; late, 24 h–30 days) and identified risk factors associated with these events. Results: Thirty-day data were available for 697 out of 701 (99.4%) enrolled patients, with 85.6% having suspected malignancy and multiple comorbidities (median Charlson Comorbidity Index (IQR): 4 (2–5)). Severe complications occurred in only 17 (2.4%) patients, but among them, 10 (58.8%) had unplanned hospital encounters and 2 (11.7%) died within 30 days. A significant proportion of procedure-related severe complications (8/17, 47.1%); unplanned hospital encounters (8/11, 72.7%); and the two deaths occurred days or weeks after the procedure. Low-dose attenuation in the biopsy site on computed tomography was independently associated with any complication (OR: 1.87; 95% CI 1.13–3.09); unplanned hospital encounters (OR: 2.17; 95% CI 1.10–4.30); and mortality (OR: 4.19; 95% CI 1.74–10.11). Conclusions: Severe complications arising from endosonography and guided bronchoscopy, although uncommon, have significant clinical consequences. A substantial proportion of adverse events occur days after the procedure, potentially going unnoticed and exerting a negative clinical impact if a proactive surveillance program is not implemented