Understanding long-term variations in surface ozone in United States (U.S.) National Parks

In the troposphere, surface ozone is an air pollutant that has deleterious effects on human respiratory function and crop yields. Therefore, an understanding of spatial and temporal ozone concentration changes is necessary. The Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) method was used to analyze processes on varying time scales for surface ozone data from 25 U.S. National Park Service sites. Time scales of interest include the seasonal cycle, large-scale climate oscillations, and long-term (\u3e10 years) trends. Variability in each of these oscillatory components is determined. Further analysis was done at one site after initial analyses yielded findings disparate from the rest of the study pool. For this site (DENA-HQ) variability in the El Niño Southern Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation was shown to affect the trajectory of pollutants to the site.The findings from this study can assist predictions regarding the timing and amplitude of peak ozone across the US and inform policy makers where emission reductions have been effective, enlightening future policy decisions

Intensity-dependence of exercise and active recovery in high-intensity interval training

Background: High-intensity interval training (HIIT) with interspersing active recovery is an effective mode of exercise training in cohorts ranging from athletes to patients. Here, we assessed the intensity-dependence of the intervals and active recovery bouts for permitting a sustainable HIIT protocol. Methods: 14 males completed 4x4-minute HIIT protocols where intensities of intervals ranged 80-100% of maximal oxygen uptake (VO2max) and active recovery ranged 60-100% of lactate (La-) threshold (LT). Blood La- measurements indicated fatigue, while tolerable duration of intervals indicated sustainability. Results: HIIT at 100% of VO2max allowed 44±10% [30-70%] completion, i.e. fatigue occurred after 7minutes:6seconds of the intended 16 minutes of high intensity, whereas HIIT at 95-80% of VO2max was 100% sustainable (p<0.01). Measured intensity did not differ from intended intensity across the protocols (p>0.05). Blood La- concentration [La-] increased to 9.3±1.4mM during HIIT at 100% of VO2max, whereas at 80-95% of VO2max stabilised at 2-6mM in an intensity-dependent manner (p<0.01 vs 100% of VO2max and p<0.05 vs baseline). Active recovery at 60-70% of LT during HIIT associated with steady-state blood [La-] peaking at 6-7mM, whereas at 80-100% of LT, blood [La-] accumulated to 10-13mM (p<0.05). After HIIT, active recovery at 80-90% of LT cleared blood [La-] 90% faster than at 60-70% of LT (p<0.05). Conclusions: To permit highest exercise stress during 4x4-minute HIIT, exercise intensity should be set to 95% of VO2max, whereas active recovery should be set to 60-70% of LT during HIIT and 80-90% of LT after HIIT to most efficiently prevent excess La- and aid recovery

Coronary CT Angiography and 5-Year Risk of Myocardial Infarction.

BACKGROUND: Although coronary computed tomographic angiography (CTA) improves diagnostic certainty in the assessment of patients with stable chest pain, its effect on 5-year clinical outcomes is unknown. METHODS: In an open-label, multicenter, parallel-group trial, we randomly assigned 4146 patients with stable chest pain who had been referred to a cardiology clinic for evaluation to standard care plus CTA (2073 patients) or to standard care alone (2073 patients). Investigations, treatments, and clinical outcomes were assessed over 3 to 7 years of follow-up. The primary end point was death from coronary heart disease or nonfatal myocardial infarction at 5 years. RESULTS: The median duration of follow-up was 4.8 years, which yielded 20,254 patient-years of follow-up. The 5-year rate of the primary end point was lower in the CTA group than in the standard-care group (2.3% [48 patients] vs. 3.9% [81 patients]; hazard ratio, 0.59; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.41 to 0.84; P=0.004). Although the rates of invasive coronary angiography and coronary revascularization were higher in the CTA group than in the standard-care group in the first few months of follow-up, overall rates were similar at 5 years: invasive coronary angiography was performed in 491 patients in the CTA group and in 502 patients in the standard-care group (hazard ratio, 1.00; 95% CI, 0.88 to 1.13), and coronary revascularization was performed in 279 patients in the CTA group and in 267 in the standard-care group (hazard ratio, 1.07; 95% CI, 0.91 to 1.27). However, more preventive therapies were initiated in patients in the CTA group (odds ratio, 1.40; 95% CI, 1.19 to 1.65), as were more antianginal therapies (odds ratio, 1.27; 95% CI, 1.05 to 1.54). There were no significant between-group differences in the rates of cardiovascular or noncardiovascular deaths or deaths from any cause. CONCLUSIONS: In this trial, the use of CTA in addition to standard care in patients with stable chest pain resulted in a significantly lower rate of death from coronary heart disease or nonfatal myocardial infarction at 5 years than standard care alone, without resulting in a significantly higher rate of coronary angiography or coronary revascularization. (Funded by the Scottish Government Chief Scientist Office and others; SCOT-HEART ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01149590 .)

Vitamin K supplementation to improve vascular stiffness in CKD:The K4Kidneys randomized controlled trial

BACKGROUND:Vascular calcification, a risk factor for cardiovascular disease, is common among patients with CKD and is an independent contributor to increased vascular stiffness and vascular risk in this patient group. Vitamin K is a cofactor for proteins involved in prevention of vascular calcification. Whether or not vitamin K supplementation could improve arterial stiffness in patients with CKD is unknown. METHODS:To determine if vitamin K supplementation might improve arterial stiffness in patients in CKD, we conducted a parallel-group, double-blind, randomized trial in participants aged 18 or older with CKD stage 3b or 4 (eGFR 15-45 ml/min per 1.73 m2). We randomly assigned participants to receive 400 μg oral vitamin K2 or matching placebo once daily for a year. The primary outcome was the adjusted between-group difference in carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity at 12 months. Secondary outcomes included augmentation index, abdominal aortic calcification, BP, physical function, and blood markers of mineral metabolism and vascular health. We also updated a recently published meta-analysis of trials to include the findings of this study. RESULTS:We included 159 randomized participants in the modified intention-to-treat analysis, with 80 allocated to receive vitamin K and 79 to receive placebo. Mean age was 66 years, 62 (39%) were female, and 87 (55%) had CKD stage 4. We found no differences in pulse wave velocity at 12 months, augmentation index at 12 months, BP, B-type natriuretic peptide, or physical function. The updated meta-analysis showed no effect of vitamin K supplementation on vascular stiffness or vascular calcification measures. CONCLUSIONS:Vitamin K2 supplementation did not improve vascular stiffness or other measures of vascular health in this trial involving individuals with CKD. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRY NAME AND REGISTRATION NUMBER:Vitamin K therapy to improve vascular health in patients with chronic kidney disease, ISRCTN21444964 (www.isrctn.com)

Associations between depressive symptoms and disease progression in older patients with chronic kidney disease: results of the EQUAL study

Background Depressive symptoms are associated with adverse clinical outcomes in patients with end-stage kidney disease; however, few small studies have examined this association in patients with earlier phases of chronic kidney disease (CKD). We studied associations between baseline depressive symptoms and clinical outcomes in older patients with advanced CKD and examined whether these associations differed depending on sex. Methods CKD patients (>= 65 years; estimated glomerular filtration rate <= 20 mL/min/1.73 m(2)) were included from a European multicentre prospective cohort between 2012 and 2019. Depressive symptoms were measured by the five-item Mental Health Inventory (cut-off <= 70; 0-100 scale). Cox proportional hazard analysis was used to study associations between depressive symptoms and time to dialysis initiation, all-cause mortality and these outcomes combined. A joint model was used to study the association between depressive symptoms and kidney function over time. Analyses were adjusted for potential baseline confounders. Results Overall kidney function decline in 1326 patients was -0.12 mL/min/1.73 m(2)/month. A total of 515 patients showed depressive symptoms. No significant association was found between depressive symptoms and kidney function over time (P = 0.08). Unlike women, men with depressive symptoms had an increased mortality rate compared with those without symptoms [adjusted hazard ratio 1.41 (95% confidence interval 1.03-1.93)]. Depressive symptoms were not significantly associated with a higher hazard of dialysis initiation, or with the combined outcome (i.e. dialysis initiation and all-cause mortality). Conclusions There was no significant association between depressive symptoms at baseline and decline in kidney function over time in older patients with advanced CKD. Depressive symptoms at baseline were associated with a higher mortality rate in men

Effect of Hydrocortisone on Mortality and Organ Support in Patients With Severe COVID-19: The REMAP-CAP COVID-19 Corticosteroid Domain Randomized Clinical Trial.

Importance: Evidence regarding corticosteroid use for severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is limited. Objective: To determine whether hydrocortisone improves outcome for patients with severe COVID-19. Design, Setting, and Participants: An ongoing adaptive platform trial testing multiple interventions within multiple therapeutic domains, for example, antiviral agents, corticosteroids, or immunoglobulin. Between March 9 and June 17, 2020, 614 adult patients with suspected or confirmed COVID-19 were enrolled and randomized within at least 1 domain following admission to an intensive care unit (ICU) for respiratory or cardiovascular organ support at 121 sites in 8 countries. Of these, 403 were randomized to open-label interventions within the corticosteroid domain. The domain was halted after results from another trial were released. Follow-up ended August 12, 2020. Interventions: The corticosteroid domain randomized participants to a fixed 7-day course of intravenous hydrocortisone (50 mg or 100 mg every 6 hours) (n = 143), a shock-dependent course (50 mg every 6 hours when shock was clinically evident) (n = 152), or no hydrocortisone (n = 108). Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary end point was organ support-free days (days alive and free of ICU-based respiratory or cardiovascular support) within 21 days, where patients who died were assigned -1 day. The primary analysis was a bayesian cumulative logistic model that included all patients enrolled with severe COVID-19, adjusting for age, sex, site, region, time, assignment to interventions within other domains, and domain and intervention eligibility. Superiority was defined as the posterior probability of an odds ratio greater than 1 (threshold for trial conclusion of superiority >99%). Results: After excluding 19 participants who withdrew consent, there were 384 patients (mean age, 60 years; 29% female) randomized to the fixed-dose (n = 137), shock-dependent (n = 146), and no (n = 101) hydrocortisone groups; 379 (99%) completed the study and were included in the analysis. The mean age for the 3 groups ranged between 59.5 and 60.4 years; most patients were male (range, 70.6%-71.5%); mean body mass index ranged between 29.7 and 30.9; and patients receiving mechanical ventilation ranged between 50.0% and 63.5%. For the fixed-dose, shock-dependent, and no hydrocortisone groups, respectively, the median organ support-free days were 0 (IQR, -1 to 15), 0 (IQR, -1 to 13), and 0 (-1 to 11) days (composed of 30%, 26%, and 33% mortality rates and 11.5, 9.5, and 6 median organ support-free days among survivors). The median adjusted odds ratio and bayesian probability of superiority were 1.43 (95% credible interval, 0.91-2.27) and 93% for fixed-dose hydrocortisone, respectively, and were 1.22 (95% credible interval, 0.76-1.94) and 80% for shock-dependent hydrocortisone compared with no hydrocortisone. Serious adverse events were reported in 4 (3%), 5 (3%), and 1 (1%) patients in the fixed-dose, shock-dependent, and no hydrocortisone groups, respectively. Conclusions and Relevance: Among patients with severe COVID-19, treatment with a 7-day fixed-dose course of hydrocortisone or shock-dependent dosing of hydrocortisone, compared with no hydrocortisone, resulted in 93% and 80% probabilities of superiority with regard to the odds of improvement in organ support-free days within 21 days. However, the trial was stopped early and no treatment strategy met prespecified criteria for statistical superiority, precluding definitive conclusions. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02735707

The 13th Southern Hemisphere Conference on the Teaching and Learning of Undergraduate Mathematics and Statistics

Ngā mihi aroha ki ngā tangata katoa and warm greetings to you all. Welcome to Herenga Delta 2021, the Thirteenth Southern Hemisphere Conference on the Teaching and Learning of Undergraduate Mathematics and Statistics. It has been ten years since the Volcanic Delta Conference in Rotorua, and we are excited to have the Delta community return to Aotearoa New Zealand, if not in person, then by virtual means. Although the limits imposed by the pandemic mean that most of this year’s 2021 participants are unable to set foot in Tāmaki Makaurau Auckland, this has certainly not stopped interest in this event. Participants have been invited to draw on the concept of herenga, in Te Reo Māori usually a mooring place where people from afar come to share their knowledge and experiences. Although many of the participants are still some distance away, the submissions that have been sent in will continue to stimulate discussion on mathematics and statistics undergraduate education in the Delta tradition. The conference invited papers, abstracts and posters, working within the initial themes of Values and Variables. The range of submissions is diverse, and will provide participants with many opportunities to engage, discuss, and network with colleagues across the Delta community. The publications for this thirteenth Delta Conference include publications in the International Journal of Mathematical Education in Science and Technology, iJMEST, (available at https://www.tandfonline.com/journals/tmes20/collections/Herenga-Delta-2021), the Conference Proceedings, and the Programme (which has created some interesting challenges around time-zones), by the Local Organizing Committee. Papers in the iJMEST issue and the Proceedings were peer reviewed by at least two reviewers per paper. Of the ten submissions to the Proceedings, three were accepted. We are pleased to now be at the business end of the conference and hope that this event will carry on the special atmosphere of the many Deltas which have preceded this one. We hope that you will enjoy this conference, the virtual and social experiences that accompany it, and take the opportunity to contribute to further enhancing mathematics and statistics undergraduate education. Ngā manaakitanga, Phil Kane (The University of Auckland | Waipapa Taumata Rau) on behalf of the Local Organising Committ

Assessment of polygenic architecture and risk prediction based on common variants across fourteen cancers

Abstract: Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have led to the identification of hundreds of susceptibility loci across cancers, but the impact of further studies remains uncertain. Here we analyse summary-level data from GWAS of European ancestry across fourteen cancer sites to estimate the number of common susceptibility variants (polygenicity) and underlying effect-size distribution. All cancers show a high degree of polygenicity, involving at a minimum of thousands of loci. We project that sample sizes required to explain 80% of GWAS heritability vary from 60,000 cases for testicular to over 1,000,000 cases for lung cancer. The maximum relative risk achievable for subjects at the 99th risk percentile of underlying polygenic risk scores (PRS), compared to average risk, ranges from 12 for testicular to 2.5 for ovarian cancer. We show that PRS have potential for risk stratification for cancers of breast, colon and prostate, but less so for others because of modest heritability and lower incidence