Long-Tail Distributions And Total Returns On Risk-Based Investment Products

Use of target date funds (TDFs) in retirement plans increased in popularity following the 2007-2008 financial crisis. However, some argued that TDFs do not provide an acceptable level of protection against market downturns and long-tail events. This study assesses the ability of TDFs to deal with long-tail events. It builds a system of equations for seven asset classes that are used to build four hypothetical TDFs, and compares simulated total returns for four hypothetical TDFs over a 50-year horizon, where the stochastic terms for each of the underlying asset classes is based on the normal distribution and a long-tail distributions (the Laplace distribution). Simulations are repeated 2000 times. Total returns for four TDFs are calculated over non-overlapping 1-, 2- 3-, and 5-year horizons over the 50-year span for the 2000 simulations. Results show that about half the time the risk measure for the long-tail distribution are wider than the normal, and about half the time the opposite holds. It seems that the processes of asset diversification along with calculating returns over horizons of at least one year mitigates effects of long-tail characteristics. Even so, results do not bode well for those nearing retirement. Negative returns over 1- and 2-year investment horizons are possible 17% of the time for a conservative allocation over a 50-year period

The Chronus Quantum (ChronusQ) Software Package

The Chronus Quantum (ChronusQ) software package is an open source (under the GNU General Public License v2) software infrastructure which targets the solution of challenging problems that arise in ab initio electronic structure theory. Special emphasis is placed on the consistent treatment of time dependence and spin in the electronic wave function, as well as the inclusion of relativistic effects in said treatments. In addition, ChronusQ provides support for the inclusion of uniform finite magnetic fields as external perturbations through the use of gauge-including atomic orbitals (GIAO). ChronusQ is a parallel electronic structure code written in modern C++ which utilizes both message passing (MPI) and shared memory (OpenMP) parallelism. In addition to the examination of the current state of code base itself, a discussion regarding ongoing developments and developer contributions will also be provided.Comment: 43 pages, 2 figure

The Return of the Repressed: The Persistent and Problematic Claims of Long-Forgotten Trauma

Can purely psychological trauma lead to a complete blockage of autobiographical memories? This longstanding question about the existence of repressed memories has been at the heart of one of the most heated debates in modern psychology. These so-called memory wars originated in the 1990s and many scholars have assumed that they are over. We demonstrate that this assumption is incorrect and that the controversial issue of repressed memories is alive and well and may even be on the rise. We review converging research and data from legal cases indicating that the topic of repressed memories remains active in clinical, legal, and academic settings. We show that the belief in repressed memories occurs on a non-trivial-scale (58%) and appears to have increased among clinical psychologists since the 1990s. We also demonstrate that the scientifically controversial concept of dissociative amnesia, which we argue is a substitute term for memory repression, has gained in popularity. Finally, we review work onthe adverse side effects of certain psychotherapeutic techniques, some of which may be linked to the recovery of repressed memories. The memory wars have not vanished: They have continued to endure and contribute to potentially damaging consequences in clinical, legal, and academic contexts

Longitudinal Predictors of Child Sexual Abuse in a Large Community-Based Sample of South African Youth

Sexual abuse has severe negative impacts on children's lives, but little is known about risk factors for sexual abuse victimization in sub-Saharan Africa. This study examined prospective predictors of contact sexual abuse in a random community-based sample of children aged 10 to 17 years (N = 3,515, 56.6% female) in South Africa. Self-report questionnaires using validated scales were completed at baseline and at 1-year follow-up (96.8% retention rate). Cross-sectional and longitudinal associations between hypothesized factors and sexual abuse were examined. For girls, previous sexual abuse (odds ratio [OR] = 3.44, 95% confidence interval [CI] = [2.03, 5.60]), baseline school dropout (OR = 2.76, 95% CI = [1.00, 6.19]), and physical assault in the community (OR = 2.17, 95% CI = [1.29, 3.48]) predicted sexual abuse at follow-up. Peer social support (OR = 0.84, 95% CI = [0.74, 0.98]) acted as a protective factor. Previous contact sexual abuse was the strongest predictor of subsequent sexual abuse victimization. In addition, peer support moderated the relationship between baseline assault and subsequent sexual abuse. For boys, no longitudinal predictors for sexual abuse victimization were identified. These results indicate that the most vulnerable girls-those not in school and with a history of victimization-are at higher risk for sexual abuse victimization. High levels of peer support reduced the risk of sexual abuse victimization and acted as a moderator for those who had experienced physical assault within the community. Interventions to reduce school drop-out rates and revictimization may help prevent contact sexual abuse of girls in South Africa

Health-related quality of life after apalutamide treatment in patients with metastatic castration-sensitive prostate cancer (TITAN): a randomised, placebo-controlled, phase 3 study

Background: In the phase 3 TITAN study, the addition of apalutamide to androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) significantly improved the primary endpoints of overall survival and radiographic progression-free survival in patients with metastatic castration-sensitive prostate cancer. We aimed to assess health-related quality of life (HRQOL) in TITAN, including pain and fatigue. Methods: In this randomised, placebo-controlled, double-blind, phase 3 study, patients with metastatic castration-sensitive prostate cancer (defined as not receiving ADT at the time of metastatic disease progression) aged 18 years and older, receiving continuous ADT (selected at the investigator's discretion), and with an Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status score of 0 or 1 were randomly assigned (1:1), using an interactive web response system, to receive oral apalutamide (four 60 mg tablets, once daily) or matching placebo. Previous localised disease treatment or previous docetaxel for metastatic castration-sensitive prostate cancer were allowed. Randomisation was stratified by Gleason score at diagnosis, region, and previous docetaxel treatment. Randomisation was done using randomly permuted blocks (block size of four). Investigators, research staff, sponsor study team, and patients were masked to the identities of test and control treatments. Patient-reported outcomes were prespecified exploratory endpoints and were the Brief Pain Inventory-Short Form (BPI-SF), Brief Fatigue Inventory (BFI), Functional Assessment of Cancer Therapy-Prostate (FACT-P), and EuroQoL 5D questionnaire 5 level (EQ-5D-5L). BPI and BFI were completed for 7 consecutive days (days −6 to 1 inclusive of each cycle visit), then at months 4, 8, and 12 in follow-up. FACT-P and EQ-5D-5L were completed during cycles 1–7, then every other cycle until the end of treatment, and at months 4, 8, and 12 in follow-up. Analyses were based on the intention-to-treat population. Missing patient-reported outcome assessments were calculated as the expected number of assessments for a visit minus the actual number of assessments received for that visit. For time-to-event endpoints, when median values could not be calculated because less than 50% of patients had degradation, 25th percentiles were compared. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT02489318, and is ongoing. Findings: Between Dec 9, 2015, and July 25, 2017, 1052 eligible patients were enrolled randomly assigned to apalutamide (n=525) or placebo (n=527). Data cutoff for this analysis of patient-reported outcomes was Nov 23, 2018. Median follow-up for time to pain-related endpoints ranged from 19·4 to 22·1 months. Patients were mostly asymptomatic at baseline: on the BPI-SF pain severity scale of 0–10, median pain scores (indicating worst pain in the past 24 h) were 1·14 (IQR 0–3·17) in the apalutamide group and 1·00 (0–2·86) in the placebo group, and median worst fatigue scores on the BFI were 1·29 (IQR 0–3·29) in the apalutamide group and 1·43 (0·14–3·14) in the placebo group. Patient experience of pain and fatigue (intensity and interference) did not differ between the groups for the duration of treatment. Median time to worst pain intensity progression was 19·09 months (95% CI 11·04–not reached) in the apalutamide group versus 11·99 months (8·28–18·46) in the placebo group (HR 0·89 [95% CI 0·75–1·06]; p=0·20). Median time to pain interference progression was not reached in either group (95% CI 28·58–not reached in the apalutamide group; not reached–not reached in the placebo group). 25th percentiles for time to pain interference progression were 9·17 months (5·55–11·96) in the apalutamide group and 6·24 months (4·63–7·43) in the placebo group (HR 0·90 [95% CI 0·73–1·10]; p=0·29). FACT-P total scores and EQ-5D-5L data showed preservation of HRQOL in both groups. The median time to deterioration as determined by FACT-P total score was 8·87 months (95% CI 4·70–11·10) in the apalutamide group and 9·23 months (7·39–12·91) in the placebo group (HR 1·02 [95% CI 0·85–1·22]; p=0·85). Interpretation: Apalutamide with ADT is a well-tolerated and effective option for men with metastatic castration-sensitive prostate cancer. The combination significantly improves survival outcomes compared with ADT alone while maintaining HRQOL despite additive androgen blockade. Funding: Janssen Research & Development

Fluid Intelligence and Psychosocial Outcome: From Logical Problem Solving to Social Adaptation

While fluid intelligence has proved to be central to executive functioning, logical reasoning and other frontal functions, the role of this ability in psychosocial adaptation has not been well characterized.Lower fluid intelligence scores were associated with physical violence, both in the role of victim and victimizer. Drug intake, especially cannabis, cocaine and inhalants and lower self-esteem were also associated with lower fluid intelligence. Finally, scores on the perceived mental health assessment were better when fluid intelligence scores were higher.Our results show evidence of a strong association between psychosocial adaptation and fluid intelligence, suggesting that the latter is not only central to executive functioning but also forms part of a more general capacity for adaptation to social contexts

Software for the frontiers of quantum chemistry:An overview of developments in the Q-Chem 5 package

This article summarizes technical advances contained in the fifth major release of the Q-Chem quantum chemistry program package, covering developments since 2015. A comprehensive library of exchange–correlation functionals, along with a suite of correlated many-body methods, continues to be a hallmark of the Q-Chem software. The many-body methods include novel variants of both coupled-cluster and configuration-interaction approaches along with methods based on the algebraic diagrammatic construction and variational reduced density-matrix methods. Methods highlighted in Q-Chem 5 include a suite of tools for modeling core-level spectroscopy, methods for describing metastable resonances, methods for computing vibronic spectra, the nuclear–electronic orbital method, and several different energy decomposition analysis techniques. High-performance capabilities including multithreaded parallelism and support for calculations on graphics processing units are described. Q-Chem boasts a community of well over 100 active academic developers, and the continuing evolution of the software is supported by an “open teamware” model and an increasingly modular design

Does oxytocin lead to emotional interference during a working memory paradigm?

FSW - Self-regulation models for health behavior and psychopathology - ou