Estimating Lengths-Of-Stay of Hospitalized COVID-19 Patients Using a Non-parametric Model: A Case Study in Galicia (Spain)

[Abstract:] Estimating the lengths-of-stay (LoS) of hospitalised COVID-19 patients is key for predicting the hospital beds’ demand and planning mitigation strategies, as overwhelming the healthcare systems has critical consequences for disease mortality. However, accurately mapping the time-to-event of hospital outcomes, such as the LoS in the intensive care unit (ICU), requires understanding patient trajectories while adjusting for covariates and observation bias, such as incomplete data. Standard methods, such as the Kaplan-Meier estimator, require prior assumptions that are untenable given current knowledge. Using real-time surveillance data from the first weeks of the COVID-19 epidemic in Galicia (Spain), we aimed to model the time-to-event and event probabilities of patients’ hospitalised, without parametric priors and adjusting for individual covariates. We applied a non-parametric mixture cure model and compared its performance in estimating hospital ward (HW)/ICU LoS to the performances of commonly used methods to estimate survival. We showed that the proposed model outperformed standard approaches, providing more accurate ICU and HW LoS estimates. Finally, we applied our model estimates to simulate COVID-19 hospital demand using a Monte Carlo algorithm. We provided evidence that adjusting for sex, generally overlooked in prediction models, together with age is key for accurately forecasting HW and ICU occupancy, as well as discharge or death outcomes.ALC was sponsored by the BEATRIZ GALINDO JUNIOR Spanish from MICINN (Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovación y Universidades) with reference BGP18/00154. ALC, MAJ and RC acknowledge partial support by the MINECO (Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad) Grant MTM2014-52876-R (EU ERDF support included) and the MICINN Grant MTM2017-82724-R (EU ERDF support included) and partial support of Xunta de Galicia (Centro Singular de Investigación de Galicia accreditation ED431G 2019/01 and Grupos de Referencia Competitiva ED431C-2020-14 and ED431C2016-015) and the European Union (European Regional Development Fund - ERDF). PMD is a current recipient of the Grant of Excellence for postdoctoral studies by the Ramón Areces FoundationXunta de Galicia; ED431G 2019/01Xunta de Galicia; ED431C 2020/14Xunta de Galicia; ED431C 2016/01

Association Between Specific Childhood Adversities and Symptom Dimensions in People With Psychosis: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Despite the accepted link between childhood abuse and positive psychotic symptoms, findings between other ad versities, such as neglect, and the remaining dimensions in people with psychosis have been inconsistent, with evidence not yet reviewed quantitatively. The aim of this study was to systematically examine quantitatively the association between broadly defined childhood adversity (CA), abuse (sexual/physical/emotional), and neglect (physical/emo tional) subtypes, with positive, negative, depressive, manic, and disorganized dimensions in those with psychosis. A search was conducted across EMBASE, MEDLINE, PsychINFO, and Cochrane Libraries using search terms related to psychosis population, CA, and psychopatholog ical dimensions. After reviewing for relevance, data were extracted, synthesized, and meta-analyzed. Forty-seven papers were identified, including 7379 cases across 40 studies examining positive, 37 negative, 20 depressive, 9 disorganized, and 13 manic dimensions. After adjustment for publication bias, general adversity was positively as sociated with all dimensions (ranging from r = 0.08 to r = 0.24). Most forms of abuse were associated with de pressive (ranging from r = 0.16 to r = 0.32), positive (ran ging from r = 0.14 to r = 0.16), manic (r = 0.13), and negative dimensions (ranging from r = 0.05 to r = 0.09), while neglect was only associated with negative (r = 0.13) and depressive dimensions (ranging from r = 0.16 to r = 0.20). When heterogeneity was found, it tended to be explained by one specific study. The depressive dimension was influenced by percentage of women (ranging from r = 0.83 to r = 1.36) and poor-quality scores (ranging from r = −0.21 and r = −0.059). Quality was judged as fair overall. Broadly defined adversity and forms of abuse increase transdimensional severity. Being exposed to ne glect during childhood seems to be exclusively related to negative and depressive dimensions suggesting specific effects

Lockdown measures and relative changes in the age-specific incidence of SARS-CoV-2 in Spain

During the first months of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in 2020, Spain implemented an initial lockdown period on March 15 followed by a strengthened lockdown period on March 30 when only essential workers continued to commute to work. However, little is known about the epidemic dynamics in different age groups during these periods. We used the daily number of COVID-19 cases (by date of symptom onset) reported to the National Epidemiological Surveillance Network (RENAVE) among individuals aged 15-19y through 65-69y. For each age group g, we computed the proportion PrE(g) of individuals in age group g among all reported cases aged 15-69y during the pre-lockdown period (March 1-10, 2020) and the corresponding proportion PrL(g) during two lockdown periods (initial: 25 March-3 April; strengthened: 8-17 April, 2020). For each lockdown period, we computed the proportion ratios PR(g)= PrL(g)/PrE(g). For each pair of age groups g1,g, PR(g)>PR(g) implies a relative increase in the incidence of detected SARS-CoV-2 infection in the age group g compared with g for the lockdown period vs. the pre-lockdown period. For the initial lockdown period, the highest PR values were in age groups 50-54y (PR=1.21; 95% CI: 1.12,1.30) and 55-59y (PR=1.19; 1.11,1.27). For the second lockdown period, the highest PR values were in age groups 15-19y (PR=1.26; 0.95,1.68) and 50-54y (PR=1.20; 1.09,1.31). Our results suggest that different outbreak control measures led to different changes in the relative incidence by age group. During the initial lockdown period, when non-essential work was allowed, individuals aged 40-64y, particularly those aged 50-59y, had a higher relative incidence compared with the pre-lockdown period. Younger adults/older adolescents had an increased relative incidence during the later, strengthened lockdown. The role of different age groups during the epidemic should be considered when implementing future mitigation efforts

Monolithic stirrer reactors for the sustainable production of dihydroxybenzenes over 3D printed Fe/γ-Al2O3 monoliths: kinetic modeling and CFD simulation

The aim of this work is to evaluate the performance of the stirring 3D Fe/Al2O3 monolithic reactor in batch operation applied to the liquid-phase hydroxylation of phenol by hydrogen peroxide (H2O2 ). An experimental and numerical investigation was carried out at the following operating conditions: CPHENOL,0 = 0.33 M, CH2O2,0 = 0.33 M, T = 75–95◦C, P = 1 atm, ω = 200–500 rpm and WCAT ~ 1.1 g. The kinetic model described the consumption of the H2O2 by a zero-order power-law equation, while the phenol hydroxylation and catechol and hydroquinone production by Eley–Rideal model; the rate determining step was the reaction between the adsorbed H2O2, phenol in solution with two active sites involved. The 3D CFD model, coupling the conservation of mass, momentum and species together with the reaction kinetic equations, was experimentally validated. It demonstrated a laminar flow characterized by the presence of an annular zone located inside and surrounding the monoliths (u = 40–80 mm s−1 ) and a central vortex with very low velocities (u = 3.5–8 mm s−1 ). The simulation study showed the increasing phenol selectivity to dihydroxybenzenes by the reaction temperature, while the initial H2O2 concentration mainly affects the phenol conversio

Human Trypanosoma cruzi chronic infection leads to individual level steady-state parasitemia: Implications for drug-trial optimization in Chagas disease

Parasitemia; Parasitic diseases; Bloodstream infectionsParasitemia; Enfermedades parasitarias; Infecciones del torrente sanguíneoParasitèmia; Malalties parasitàries; Infeccions del torrent sanguiniCurrently available drugs against Trypanosoma cruzi infection, which causes 12000 deaths annually, have limitations in their efficacy, safety and tolerability. The evaluation of therapeutic responses to available and new compounds is based on parasite detection in the bloodstream but remains challenging because a substantial proportion of infected individuals have undetectable parasitemia even when using diagnostic tools with the highest accuracy. We characterize parasite dynamics which might impact drug efficacy assessments in chronic Chagas by analyzing pre- and post-treatment quantitative-PCR data obtained from blood samples collected regularly over a year. We show that parasitemia remains at a steady-state independently of the diagnostic sensitivity. This steady-state can be probabilistically quantified and robustly predicted at an individual level. Furthermore, individuals can be assigned to categories with distinct parasitological status, allowing a more detailed evaluation of the efficacy outcomes and adjustment for potential biases. Our analysis improves understanding of parasite dynamics and provides a novel background for optimizing future drug efficacy trials in Chagas disease

Impact of coronavirus syndromes on physical and mental health of health care workers: Systematic review and meta-analysis

Background: Health care workers (HCW) are at high risk of developing physical/mental health outcomes related to coronavirus syndromes. Nature and frequency of these outcomes are undetermined. Methods: PRISMA/MOOSE-compliant (PROSPERO-CRD42020180205) systematic review of Web of Science/grey literature until 15th April 2020, to identify studies reporting physical/mental health outcomes in HCW infected/exposed to Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome -SARS-, Middle East Respiratory Syndrome -MERS-, Novel coronavirus -COVID-19-. Proportion random effect meta-analyses, I2 statistic, quality assessment and sensitivity analysis. Results: 115 articles were included (n=60,458 HCW, age 36.1±7.1, 77.1% female). Physical health outcomes: 75.9% HCW infected by SARS/MERS/COVID-19 reported fever (95%CI=65.9–83.7%, k=12, n=949), 47.9% cough (95%CI=39.2–56.8%, k=14, n=970), 43.6% myalgias (95%CI=31.9–56.0%, k=13, n=898), 42.3% chills (95%CI=20.2–67.9%, k=7, n=716), 41.2% fatigue (95%CI=18.2–68.8%, k=6, n=386), 34.6% headaches (95%CI=23.1–48.2%, k=11, n=893), 31.2% dyspnoea (95%CI=23.2–40.5%, k=12, n=1003), 25.3% sore throat (95%CI=18.8–33.2%, k=8, n=747), 22.2% nausea/vomiting (95%CI=14.9–31.8%, k=6, n=662), 18.8% diarrhoea (95%CI=11.9–28.4%, k=9, n=824). Mental health outcomes: 62.5% HCW exposed to SARS/MERS/COVID-19 reported general health concerns (95%CI=57.0–67,8%, k=2, n=2254), 43.7% fear (95%CI=33.9–54.0%, k=4, n=584), 37.9% insomnia (95%CI=30.9–45.5%, k=6, n=5067), 37.8% psychological distress (95%CI=28.4–48.2%, k=15, n=24,346), 34.4% burnout (95%CI=19.3–53.5%, k=3, n=1337), 29.0% anxiety features (95%CI=14.2–50.3%, k=6, n=9191), 26.3% depressive symptoms (95%CI=12.5–47.1%, k=8, n=9893), 20.7% post-traumatic stress disorder features (95%CI=13.2–31%, k=11, n=3826), 16.1% somatisation (95%CI=0.2–96.0%, k=2, n=2184), 14.0% stigmatisation feelings (95%CI=6.4–28.1%, k=2, n=411). Limitations: Limited amount of evidence for some outcomes and suboptimal design in several studies included. Conclusions: SARS/MERS/COVID-19 have a substantial impact on the physical and mental health of HCW, which should become a priority for public health strategies

Understanding the evolution and spread of chikungunya virus in the Americas using complete genome sequences

Local transmission of chikungunya virus (CHIKV) was first detected in the Americas in December 2013, after which it spread rapidly throughout the Caribbean islands and American mainland, causing a major chikungunya fever epidemic. Previous phylogenetic analysis of CHIKV from a limited number of countries in the Americas suggests that an Asian genotype strain was responsible, except in Brazil where both Asian and East/Central/South African (ECSA) lineage strains were detected. In this study, we sequenced thirty-three complete CHIKV genomes from viruses isolated in 2014 from fourteen Caribbean islands, the Bahamas and two mainland countries in the Americas. Phylogenetic analyses confirmed that they all belonged to the Asian genotype and clustered together with other Caribbean and mainland sequences isolated during the American outbreak, forming an 'Asian/American' lineage defined by two amino acid substitutions, E2 V368A and 6K L20M, and divided into two well-supported clades. This lineage is estimated to be evolving at a mean rate of 5 x 10-4 substitutions per site per year (95% higher probability density, 2.9-7.9 x 10-4) and to have arisen from an ancestor introduced to the Caribbean (most likely from Oceania) in about March 2013, 9 months prior to the first report of CHIKV in the Americas. Estimation of evolutionary rates for individual gene regions and selection analyses indicate that (in contrast to the Indian Ocean Lineage that emerged from the ECSA genotype followed by adaptive evolution and with a significantly higher substitution rate) the evolutionary dynamics of the Asian/American lineage are very similar to the rest of the Asian genotype and natural selection does not appear to have played a major role in its emergence. However, several codon sites with evidence of positive selection were identified within the non-structural regions of Asian genotype sequences outside of the Asian/American lineage

Age at onset of mental disorders worldwide: large-scale meta-analysis of 192 epidemiological studies

Promotion of good mental health, prevention, and early intervention before/at the onset of mental disorders improve outcomes. However, the range and peak ages at onset for mental disorders are not fully established. To provide robust, global epidemiological estimates of age at onset for mental disorders, we conducted a PRISMA/MOOSE-compliant systematic review with meta-analysis of birth cohort/cross-sectional/cohort studies, representative of the general population, reporting age at onset for any ICD/DSM-mental disorders, identified in PubMed/Web of Science (up to 16/05/2020) (PROSPERO:CRD42019143015). Co-primary outcomes were the proportion of individuals with onset of mental disorders before age 14, 18, 25, and peak age at onset, for any mental disorder and across International Classification of Diseases 11 diagnostic blocks. Median age at onset of specific disorders was additionally investigated. Across 192 studies (n = 708,561) included, the proportion of individuals with onset of any mental disorders before the ages of 14, 18, 25 were 34.6%, 48.4%, 62.5%, and peak age was 14.5 years (k = 14, median = 18, interquartile range (IQR) = 11–34). For diagnostic blocks, the proportion of individuals with onset of disorder before the age of 14, 18, 25 and peak age were as follows: neurodevelopmental disorders: 61.5%, 83.2%, 95.8%, 5.5 years (k = 21, median=12, IQR = 7–16), anxiety/fear-related disorders: 38.1%, 51.8%, 73.3%, 5.5 years (k = 73, median = 17, IQR = 9–25), obsessive-compulsive/related disorders: 24.6%, 45.1%, 64.0%, 14.5 years (k = 20, median = 19, IQR = 14–29), feeding/eating disorders/problems: 15.8%, 48.1%, 82.4%, 15.5 years (k = 11, median = 18, IQR = 15–23), conditions specifically associated with stress disorders: 16.9%, 27.6%, 43.1%, 15.5 years (k = 16, median = 30, IQR = 17–48), substance use disorders/addictive behaviours: 2.9%, 15.2%, 48.8%, 19.5 years (k = 58, median = 25, IQR = 20–41), schizophrenia-spectrum disorders/primary psychotic states: 3%, 12.3%, 47.8%, 20.5 years (k = 36, median = 25, IQR = 20–34), personality disorders/related traits: 1.9%, 9.6%, 47.7%, 20.5 years (k = 6, median = 25, IQR = 20–33), and mood disorders: 2.5%, 11.5%, 34.5%, 20.5 years (k = 79, median = 31, IQR = 21–46). No significant difference emerged by sex, or definition of age of onset. Median age at onset for specific mental disorders mapped on a time continuum, from phobias/separation anxiety/autism spectrum disorder/attention deficit hyperactivity disorder/social anxiety (8-13 years) to anorexia nervosa/bulimia nervosa/obsessive-compulsive/binge eating/cannabis use disorders (17-22 years), followed by schizophrenia, personality, panic and alcohol use disorders (25-27 years), and finally post-traumatic/depressive/generalized anxiety/bipolar/acute and transient psychotic disorders (30-35 years), with overlap among groups and no significant clustering. These results inform the timing of good mental health promotion/preventive/early intervention, updating the current mental health system structured around a child/adult service schism at age 18

Overexpression of wild-type human APP in mice causes cognitive déficits and pathological features unrelated to Abeta levels

Transgenic mice expressing mutant human amyloid precursor protein (APP) develop an age-dependent amyloid pathology and memory deficits, but no overt neuronal loss. Here, in mice overexpressing wild-type human APP (hAPPwt) we found an early memory impairment, particularly in the water maze and to a lesser extent in the object recognition task, but β-amyloid peptide (Aβ42) was barely detectable in the hippocampus. In these mice, hAPP processing was basically non-amyloidogenic, with high levels of APP carboxy-terminal fragments, C83 and APP intracellular domain. A tau pathology with an early increase in the levels of phosphorylated tau in the hippocampus, a likely consequence of enhanced ERK1/2 activation, was also observed. Furthermore, these mice presented a loss of synapse-associated proteins: PSD95, AMPA and NMDA receptor subunits and phosphorylated CaMKII. Importantly, signs of neurodegeneration were found in the hippocampal CA1 subfield and in the entorhinal cortex that were associated to a marked loss of MAP2 immunoreactivity. Conversely, in mice expressing mutant hAPP, high levels of Aβ42 were found in the hippocampus, but no signs of neurodegeneration were apparent. The results support the notion of Aβ- independent pathogenic pathways in Alzheimer's disease

Near real-time surveillance of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic with incomplete data

When responding to infectious disease outbreaks, rapid and accurate estimation of the epidemic trajectory is critical. However, two common data collection problems affect the reliability of the epidemiological data in real time: missing information on the time of first symptoms, and retrospective revision of historical information, including right censoring. Here, we propose an approach to construct epidemic curves in near real time that addresses these two challenges by 1) imputation of dates of symptom onset for reported cases using a dynamically-estimated "backward" reporting delay conditional distribution, and 2) adjustment for right censoring using the NobBS software package to nowcast cases by date of symptom onset. This process allows us to obtain an approximation of the time-varying reproduction number (Rt) in real time. We apply this approach to characterize the early SARS-CoV-2 outbreak in two Spanish regions between March and April 2020. We evaluate how these real-time estimates compare with more complete epidemiological data that became available later. We explore the impact of the different assumptions on the estimates, and compare our estimates with those obtained from commonly used surveillance approaches. Our framework can help improve accuracy, quantify uncertainty, and evaluate frequently unstated assumptions when recovering the epidemic curves from limited data obtained from public health systems in other locations.PMD was supported by the fellowship Ramón Areces Foundation. JAH was funded by the National Institute of General Medical Sciences, Award U54GM088558, and the National Institutes of Health Director’s Early Independence, Award DP5-OD028145. ML was supported by the Morris-Singer Fund and by a subcontract from the Carnegie Mellon University under an award from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Award U01IP001121). MS was supported by the National Institute Of General Medical Sciences, Award R01GM130668-02. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.S