Novel Algorithm-Level Approaches for Class-Imbalanced Machine Learning

Machine learning classifiers are designed with the underlying assumption of a roughly balanced number of instances per class. However, in many real-world applications this is far from true. This thesis explores adaptations of neural networks which are robust to class imbalanced datasets, do not involve data manipulation, and are flexible enough to be used with any model architecture or framework. The thesis explores two complementary approaches to the problem of class imbalance. The first exchanges conventional choices of classification loss function, which are fundamentally measures of how far network outputs are from desired ones, for ones that instead primarily register whether outputs are right or wrong. The construction of these novel loss functions involves the concept of an approximated confusion matrix, another use of which is to generate new performance metrics, especially useful for monitoring validation behaviour for imbalanced datasets. The second approach changes the form of the output layer activation function to one with a threshold which can be learned so as to more easily classify the more difficult minority class. These two approaches can be used together or separately, with the combined technique being a promising approach for cases of extreme class imbalance. While the methods are developed primarily for binary classification scenarios, as these are the most numerous in the applications literature, the novel loss functions introduced here are also demonstrated to be extensible to a multi-class scenari

A Review of the Monitoring of Market Power The Possible Roles of TSOs in Monitoring for Market Power Issues in Congested Transmission Systems

The paper surveys the literature and publicly available information on market power monitoring in electricity wholesale markets. After briefly reviewing definitions, strategies and methods of mitigating market power we examine the various methods of detecting market power that have been employed by academics and market monitors/regulators. These techniques include structural and behavioural indices and analysis as well as various simulation approaches. The applications of these tools range from spot market mitigation and congestion management through to long-term market design assessment and merger decisions. Various market-power monitoring units already track market behaviour and produce indices. Our survey shows that these units collect a large amount of data from various market participants and we identify the crucial role of the transmission system operators with their access to dispatch and system information. Easily accessible and comprehensive data supports effective market power monitoring and facilitates market design evaluation. The discretion required for effective market monitoring is facilitated by institutional independence

A CHECK LIST DESIGNED TO IMPROVE MEMORY RECALL AMONGST CF PATIENTS

When a Cystic Fibrosis (CF) patient/carer meets a doctor, it is the responsibility of the patient/carer to recall their medical history. Often the information imparted by the patient/carer is inaccurate due to their inability to remember their medical history accurately. Coupled with this, patients/carers often leave medical encounters unable to remember the information that has been imparted to them. These memory issues can seriously impede the doctor’s ability to correctly diagnose and treat a CF patient and the patient’s ability to adhere to the doctors’ recommendations. This paper explores: “The Memory Recall of mild to moderate Cystic Fibrosis(CF) patients/carers in routine doctor’s appointments and the impacts a simple artefact can have on memory recall, stress and empowerment”. Using Design Science Research, the artefact designed, built and evaluated to address the problem is a pretotype (a paper-based prototype) in the form of a Check List. Rigorous evaluation by CF patients, carers and respiratory clinicians’ points to the artefact’s validity and shows its contribution to memory recall, a reduction in stress, and an increase in empowerment for both CF patients and carers. The insights gained from this research will be an essential precursor to the creation of an effective digital solution

Cross-sectional associations of depressive symptom severity and functioning with health service use by older people in low-and-middle income countries

Background: Comprehensive understanding of the determinants of health service use (HSU) by older people with depression is essential for health service planning for an ageing global population. This study aimed to determine the extent to which depressive symptom severity and functioning are associated with HSU by older people with depression in low and middle income countries (LMICs). Methods: A cross-sectional analysis of the 10/66 Dementia Research Group population-based surveys dataset. Participants (n = 4590) were those aged 65 or older, in the clinical range for depressive symptoms (defined as scoring four or more on the EURO-D), living in 13 urban and/or rural catchment areas in nine LMICs. Associations were calculated using Poisson regression and random-effects meta-analysis. Results: After adjustment for confounding variables, (EURO-D) depressive symptom severity was significantly associated with “any community HSU” (Pooled Prevalence Ratios = 1.02; 95% CI = 1.01–1.03) but not hospital admission. Conversely, after adjustment, (WHODAS-II) functioning was significantly associated with hospital admission (Pooled PR = 1.14; 95% CI = 1.02–1.26) but not “any community HSU”. Conclusions: Depressive symptom severity does not explain a large proportion of the variance in HSU by older people with depression in LMICs. The association of functioning with this HSU is worthy of further investigation. In LMICs, variables related to accessibility may be more important correlates of HSU than variables directly related to health problems

Cross-sectional associations of depressive symptom severity and functioning with health service use by older people in low-and-middle income countries

Background: Comprehensive understanding of the determinants of health service use (HSU) by older people with depression is essential for health service planning for an ageing global population. This study aimed to determine the extent to which depressive symptom severity and functioning are associated with HSU by older people with depression in low and middle income countries (LMICs). Methods: A cross-sectional analysis of the 10/66 Dementia Research Group population-based surveys dataset. Participants (n = 4590) were those aged 65 or older, in the clinical range for depressive symptoms (defined as scoring four or more on the EURO-D), living in 13 urban and/or rural catchment areas in nine LMICs. Associations were calculated using Poisson regression and random-effects meta-analysis. Results: After adjustment for confounding variables, (EURO-D) depressive symptom severity was significantly associated with “any community HSU” (Pooled Prevalence Ratios = 1.02; 95% CI = 1.01–1.03) but not hospital admission. Conversely, after adjustment, (WHODAS-II) functioning was significantly associated with hospital admission (Pooled PR = 1.14; 95% CI = 1.02–1.26) but not “any community HSU”. Conclusions: Depressive symptom severity does not explain a large proportion of the variance in HSU by older people with depression in LMICs. The association of functioning with this HSU is worthy of further investigation. In LMICs, variables related to accessibility may be more important correlates of HSU than variables directly related to health problems

An assessment of aerosol‐cloud interactions in marine stratus clouds based on surface remote sensing

An assessment of aerosol-cloud interactions (ACI) from ground-based remote sensing under coastal stratiform clouds is presented. The assessment utilizes a long-term, high temporal resolution data set from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program deployment at Pt. Reyes, California, United States, in 2005 to provide statistically robust measures of ACI and to characterize the variability of the measures based on variability in environmental conditions and observational approaches. The average ACIN (= dlnNd/dlna, the change in cloud drop number concentration with aerosol concentration) is 0.48, within a physically plausible range of 0–1.0. Values vary between 0.18 and 0.69 with dependence on (1) the assumption of constant cloud liquid water path (LWP), (2) the relative value of cloud LWP, (3) methods for retrieving Nd, (4) aerosol size distribution, (5) updraft velocity, and (6) the scale and resolution of observations. The sensitivity of the local, diurnally averaged radiative forcing to this variability in ACIN values, assuming an aerosol perturbation of 500 c-3 relative to a background concentration of 100 cm-3, ranges betwee-4 and -9 W -2. Further characterization of ACI and its variability is required to reduce uncertainties in global radiative forcing estimates

Third generation artificial pitch quality in commercial football centers

Small sided football is the most popular and fastest growing area of adult football in the UK with an estimated 1.5m adults playing every week. The sport's popularity has led to an influx of commercial football centers offering organized 5, 6 and 7-a-side leagues on third generation artificial pitches. The range of quality and maintenance of these pitches is not fully understood despite the established links between surface quality, player performance and injury. Currently researchers and manufacturers use national governing body standards as guidelines for quality; however, many commercial centers are not approved by governing bodies and therefore are not obliged to meet these criteria. In this paper we characterize the quality of 23 pitches at five, UK based, commercial football centers using portable, low cost methods including; the FIFA rotational resistance test, the Clegg Impact Hammer and an infill depth probe. This paper describes the range of qualities observed, alongside maintenance procedures and usage statistics. To the authors knowledge this is the first study that characterizes commercial football center pitches. Twenty-two of the 23 pitches met the FIFA 1 star guidelines for rotational resistance (25 - 50 Nm), however, mean Clegg Impact Hammer readings are high (208 G), suggesting surface compliance in commercial centers falls outside FIFA standards. Within pitch variance was common at all centers and was an order of magnitude higher in some pitch comparisons. These findings have two practical implications; 1) pitch quality and maintenance at commercial centers is highly variable across and within pitches, 2) the harder surfaces and the high levels of variability found in commercial football centers suggests that players require footwear researched and designed specifically for these conditions

Genome-wide association study of endo-parasite phenotypes using imputed whole-genome sequence data in dairy and beef cattle

peer-reviewedBackground: Quantitative genetic studies suggest the existence of variation at the genome level that affects the ability of cattle to resist to parasitic diseases. The objective of the current study was to identify regions of the bovine genome that are associated with resistance to endo-parasites. Methods: Individual cattle records were available for Fasciola hepatica-damaged liver from 18 abattoirs. Deregressed estimated breeding values (EBV) for F. hepatica-damaged liver were generated for genotyped animals with a record for F. hepatica-damaged liver and for genotyped sires with a least one progeny record for F. hepatica-damaged liver; 3702 animals were available. In addition, individual cow records for antibody response to F. hepatica on 6388 genotyped dairy cows, antibody response to Ostertagia ostertagi on 8334 genotyped dairy cows and antibody response to Neospora caninum on 4597 genotyped dairy cows were adjusted for non-genetic effects. Genotypes were imputed to whole-sequence; after edits, 14,190,141 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and 16,603,644 SNPs were available for cattle with deregressed EBV for F. hepatica-damaged liver and cows with an antibody response to a parasitic disease, respectively. Association analyses were undertaken using linear regression on one SNP at a time, in which a genomic relationship matrix accounted for the relationships between animals. Results: Genomic regions for F. hepatica-damaged liver were located on Bos taurus autosomes (BTA) 1, 8, 11, 16, 17 and 18; each region included at least one SNP with a p value lower than 10−6. Five SNPs were identified as significant (q value < 0.05) for antibody response to N. caninum and were located on BTA21 or 25. For antibody response to F. hepatica and O. ostertagi, six and nine quantitative trait loci (QTL) regions that included at least one SNP with a p value lower than 10−6 were identified, respectively. Gene set enrichment analysis revealed a significant association between functional annotations related to the olfactory system and QTL that were suggestively associated with endo-parasite phenotypes. Conclusions: A number of novel genomic regions were suggestively associated with endo-parasite phenotypes across the bovine genome and two genomic regions on BTA21 and 25 were associated with antibody response to N. caninum

Preventing lower limb injuries : Is the latest evidence being translated into the football field?

There is accumulating international evidence that lower limb injuries in sport can be prevented through targeted training but the extent to which this knowledge has been translated to real-world sporting practice is not known. A semi-structured questionnaire of all coaches from the nine Sydney Australian Football League Premier Division teams was conducted. Information was sought about their knowledge and behaviours in relation to delivering training programs, including their uptake of the latest scientific evidence for injury prevention. Direct observation of a sample of the coach-delivered training sessions was also undertaken to validate the questionnaire. Coaches ranked training session elements directly related to the game as being of most importance. They strongly favoured warming-up and cooling-down as injury prevention measures but changing direction and side-stepping training was considered to be of little/no importance for safety. Only one-third believed that balance training had some importance for injury prevention, despite accumulating scientific evidence to the contrary. Drills, set play, ball handling and kicking skills were all considered to be of least importance to injury prevention. These views were consistent with the content of the observed coach-led training sessions. In conclusion, current football training sessions do not give adequate attention to the development of skills most likely to reduce the risk of lower limb injury in players. There is a need to improve the translation of the latest scientific evidence about effective injury prevention into coaching practices. © 2008 Sports Medicine Australia