Architectural support for probabilistic branches

A plethora of research efforts have focused on fine-tuning branch predictors to increasingly higher levels of accuracy. However, several important optimization, financial, and statistical data analysis algorithms rely on probabilistic computation. These applications draw random values from a distribution and steer control flow based on those values. Such probabilistic branches are challenging to predict because of their inherent probabilistic nature. As a result, probabilistic codes significantly suffer from branch mispredictions. This paper proposes Probabilistic Branch Support (PBS), a hardware/software cooperative technique that leverages the observation that the outcome of probabilistic branches needs to be correct only in a statistical sense. PBS stores the outcome and the probabilistic values that lead to the outcome of the current execution to direct the next execution of the probabilistic branch, thereby completely removing the penalty for mispredicted probabilistic branches. PBS relies on marking probabilistic branches in software for hardware to exploit. Our evaluation shows that PBS improves MPKI by 45% on average (and up to 99%) and IPC by 6.7% (up to 17%) over the TAGE-SC-L predictor. PBS requires 193 bytes of hardware overhead and introduces statistically negligible algorithmic inaccuracy

A reconfigurable stochastic architecture for highly reliable computing

Mounting concerns over variability, defects and noise motivate a new approach for integrated circuits: the design of stochastic logic, that is to say, digital circuitry that operates on probabilistic signals, and so can cope with errors and uncertainty. Techniques for prob-abilistic analysis are well established. We advocate a strategy for synthesis. In this paper, we present a reconfigurable architecture that implements the computation of arbitrary continuous functions with stochastic logic. We analyze the sources of error: approxima-tion, quantization, and random fluctuations. We demonstrate the ef-fectiveness of our method on a collection of benchmarks for image processing. Synthesis trials show that our stochastic architecture requires less area than conventional hardware implementations. It achieves a large speed up compared to software conventional im-plementations. Most importantly, it is much more tolerant of soft errors (bit flips) than these deterministic implementations

Prostate specific antigen concentration at age 60 and death or metastasis from prostate cancer: case-control study

Objective To determine the relation between concentrations of prostate specific antigen at age 60 and subsequent diagnosis of clinically relevant prostate cancer in an unscreened population to evaluate whether screening for prostate cancer and chemoprevention could be stratified by risk

Evaluation of novel data-driven metrics of amyloid β deposition for longitudinal PET studies

PURPOSE: Positron emission tomography (PET) provides in vivo quantification of amyloid-β (Aβ) pathology. Established methods for assessing Aβ burden can be affected by physiological and technical factors. Novel, data-driven metrics have been developed to account for these sources of variability. We aimed to evaluate the performance of four data-driven amyloid PET metrics against conventional techniques, using a common set of criteria. METHODS: Three cohorts were used for evaluation: Insight 46 (N=464, [18F]florbetapir), AIBL (N=277, [18F]flutemetamol), and an independent test-retest data (N=10, [18F]flutemetamol). Established metrics of amyloid tracer uptake included the Centiloid (CL) and where dynamic data was available, the non-displaceable binding potential (BPND). The four data driven metrics computed were the amyloid load (Aβ load), the Aβ PET pathology accumulation index (Aβ index), the Centiloid derived from non-negative matrix factorisation (CLNMF), and the amyloid pattern similarity score (AMPSS). These metrics were evaluated using reliability and repeatability in test-retest data, associations with BPND and CL, and sample size estimates to detect a 25% slowing in Aβ accumulation. RESULTS: All metrics showed good reliability. Aβ load, Aβ index and CLNMF were strong associated with the BPND. The associations with CL suggests that cross-sectional measures of CLNMF, Aβ index and Aβ load are robust across studies. Sample size estimates for secondary prevention trial scenarios were the lowest for CLNMF and Aβ load compared to the CL. CONCLUSION: Among the novel data-driven metrics evaluated, the Aβ load, the Aβ index and the CLNMF can provide comparable performance to more established quantification methods of Aβ PET tracer uptake. The CLNMF and Aβ load could offer a more precise alternative to CL, although further studies in larger cohorts should be conducted

Prostate-specific antigen at or before age 50 as a predictor of advanced prostate cancer diagnosed up to 25 years later: A case-control study

BACKGROUND: Based on a large, representative unscreened cohort from Malmö, Sweden, we have recently reported that a single prostate-specific antigen (PSA) measurement at or before age 50 is a strong predictor of prostate cancer occurring up to 25 years subsequently. We aimed to determine whether this association holds for advanced cancers, defined as clinical stage T3 or higher, or skeletal metastasis at the time of the cancer diagnosis. METHODS: In 1974-1986 blood samples were obtained from a cohort of 21,277 men aged up to 50. Through 1999, 498 men were diagnosed with prostate cancer, and of these 161 had locally advanced or metastatic prostate cancers. Three controls, matched for age and date of venipuncture, were selected for each case. Conditional logistic regression was used to test associations between molecular markers and advanced cancer. RESULTS: Median time from venipuncture to diagnosis was 17 years. Levels of all PSA forms and hK2 were associated with case status. Total PSA was a strong and statistically significant predictor of subsequent advanced cancer (area under the curve 0.791; p < 0.0005). Two-thirds of the advanced cancer cases occurred in men with the top 20% of PSA levels (0.9 ng/ml or higher). CONCLUSION: A single PSA test taken at or before age 50 is a very strong predictor of advanced prostate cancer diagnosed up to 25 years later. This suggests the possibility of using an early PSA test to risk-stratify patients so that men at highest risk are the focus of the most intensive screening efforts

Digital twins to personalize medicine

Personalized medicine requires the integration and processing of vast amounts of data. Here, we propose a solution to this challenge that is based on constructing Digital Twins. These are high-resolution models of individual patients that are computationally treated with thousands of drugs to find the drug that is optimal for the patient

Empirical estimates of prostate cancer overdiagnosis by age and prostate-specific antigen

Background: Prostate cancer screening depends on a careful balance of benefits, in terms of reduced prostate cancer mortality, and harms, in terms of overdiagnosis and overtreatment. We aimed to estimate the effect on overdiagnosis of restricting prostate specific antigen (PSA) testing by age and baseline PSA.Methods: Estimates of the effects of age on overdiagnosis were based on population based incidence data from the US Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results database. To investigate the relationship between PSA and overdiagnosis, we used two separate cohorts subject to PSA testing in clinical trials (n = 1,577 and n = 1,197) and a population-based cohort of Swedish men not subject to PSA-screening followed for 25 years (n = 1,162).Results: If PSA testing had been restricted to younger men, the number of excess cases associated with the introduction of PSA in the US would have been reduced by 85%, 68% and 42% for age cut-offs of 60, 65 and 70, respectively. The risk that a man with screen-detected cancer at age 60 would not subsequently lead to prostate cancer morbidity or mortality decreased exponentially as PSA approached conventional biopsy thresholds. For PSAs below 1 ng/ml, the risk of a positive biopsy is 65 (95% CI 18.2, 72.9) times greater than subsequent prostate cancer mortality.Conclusions: Prostate cancer overdiagnosis has a strong relationship to age and PSA level. Restricting screening in men over 60 to those with PSA above median (>1 ng/ml) and screening men over 70 only in selected circumstances would importantly reduce overdiagnosis and change the ratio of benefits to harms of PSA-screening

Predicting high-grade cancer at ten-core prostate biopsy using four kallikrein markers measured in blood in the ProtecT study

BACKGROUND: Many men with elevated prostate-specific antigen (PSA) levels in serum do not have aggressive prostate cancer and undergo unnecessary biopsy. Retrospective studies using cryopreserved serum suggest that four kallikrein markers can predict biopsy outcome. METHODS: Free, intact and total PSA, and kallikrein-related peptidase 2 were measured in cryopreserved blood from 6129 men with elevated PSA (≥3.0ng/mL) participating in the prospective, randomized trial Prostate Testing for Cancer and Treatment. Marker levels from 4765 men providing anticoagulated plasma were incorporated into statistical models to predict any-grade and high-grade (Gleason score ≥7) prostate cancer at 10-core biopsy. The models were corrected for optimism by 10-fold cross validation and independently validated using markers measured in serum from 1364 men. All statistical tests were two-sided. RESULTS: The four kallikreins enhanced prostate cancer detection compared with PSA and age alone. Area under the curve (AUC) for the four kallikreins was 0.719 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.704 to 0.734) vs 0.634 (95% CI = 0.617 to 0.651, P < .001) for PSA and age alone for any-grade cancer, and 0.820 (95% CI = 0.802 to 0.838) vs 0.738 (95% CI = 0.716 to 0.761) for high-grade cancer. Using a 6% risk of high-grade cancer as an illustrative cutoff, for 1000 biopsied men with PSA levels of 3.0ng/mL or higher, the model would reduce the need for biopsy in 428 men, detect 119 high-grade cancers, and delay diagnosis of 14 of 133 high-grade cancers. Models exhibited excellent discrimination on independent validation among men with only serum samples available for analysis. CONCLUSIONS: A statistical model based on kallikrein markers was validated in a large prospective study and reduces unnecessary biopsies while delaying diagnosis of high-grade cancers in few men

Validity and reliability of a novel 3D scanner for assessment of the shape and volume of amputees’ residual limb models

Objective assessment methods to monitor residual limb volume following lower-limb amputation are required to enhance practitioner-led prosthetic fitting. Computer aided systems, including 3D scanners, present numerous advantages and the recent Artec Eva scanner, based on laser free technology, could potentially be an effective solution for monitoring residual limb volumes. The aim of this study was to assess the validity and reliability of the Artec Eva scanner (practical measurement) against a high precision laser 3D scanner (criterion measurement) for the determination of residual limb model shape and volume. Three observers completed three repeat assessments of ten residual limb models, using both the scanners. Validity of the Artec Eva scanner was assessed (mean percentage error <2%) and Bland-Altman statistics were adopted to assess the agreement between the two scanners. Intra and inter-rater reliability (repeatability coefficient <5%) of the Artec Eva scanner was calculated for measuring indices of residual limb model volume and shape (i.e. residual limb cross sectional areas and perimeters). Residual limb model volumes ranged from 885 to 4399 ml. Mean percentage error of the Artec Eva scanner (validity) was 1.4% of the criterion volumes. Correlation coefficients between the Artec Eva and the Romer determined variables were higher than 0.9. Volume intra-rater and inter-rater reliability coefficients were 0.5% and 0.7%, respectively. Shape percentage maximal error was 2% at the distal end of the residual limb, with intra-rater reliability coefficients presenting the lowest errors (0.2%), both for cross sectional areas and perimeters of the residual limb models. The Artec Eva scanner is a valid and reliable method for assessing residual limb model shapes and volumes. While the method needs to be tested on human residual limbs and the results compared with the current system used in clinical practice, it has the potential to quantify shape and volume fluctuations with greater resolution

A practical and time-efficient high-intensity interval training program modifies cardio-metabolic risk factors in adults with risk factors for type ii diabetes

Introduction: Regular physical activity (PA) can reduce the risk of developing type 2 diabetes, but adherence to time-orientated (150 min week−1 or more) PA guidelines is very poor. A practical and time-efficient PA regime that was equally efficacious at controlling risk factors for cardio-metabolic disease is one solution to this problem. Herein, we evaluate a new time-efficient and genuinely practical high-intensity interval training (HIT) protocol in men and women with pre-existing risk factors for type 2 diabetes.Materials and methods: One hundred eighty-nine sedentary women (n = 101) and men (n = 88) with impaired glucose tolerance and/or a body mass index >27 kg m−2 [mean (range) age: 36 (18–53) years] participated in this multi-center study. Each completed a fully supervised 6-week HIT protocol at work-loads equivalent to ~100 or ~125% V˙O2 max. Change in V˙O2 max was used to monitor protocol efficacy, while Actiheart™ monitors were used to determine PA during four, weeklong, periods. Mean arterial (blood) pressure (MAP) and fasting insulin resistance [homeostatic model assessment (HOMA)-IR] represent key health biomarker outcomes.Results: The higher intensity bouts (~125% V˙O2 max) used during a 5-by-1 min HIT protocol resulted in a robust increase in V˙O2 max (136 participants, +10.0%, p < 0.001; large size effect). 5-by-1 HIT reduced MAP (~3%; p < 0.001) and HOMA-IR (~16%; p < 0.01). Physiological responses were similar in men and women while a sizeable proportion of the training-induced changes in V˙O2 max, MAP, and HOMA-IR was retained 3 weeks after cessation of training. The supervised HIT sessions accounted for the entire quantifiable increase in PA, and this equated to 400 metabolic equivalent (MET) min week−1. Meta-analysis indicated that 5-by-1 HIT matched the efficacy and variability of a time-consuming 30-week PA program on V˙O2 max, MAP, and HOMA-IR.Conclusion: With a total time-commitment o