The sea ice model component of HadGEM3-GC3.1

A new sea ice configuration, GSI8.1, is implemented in the Met Office global coupled configuration HadGEM3-GC3.1 which will be used for all CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) simulations. The inclusion of multi-layer thermodynamics has required a semi-implicit coupling scheme between atmosphere and sea ice to ensure the stability of the solver. Here we describe the sea ice model component and show that the Arctic thickness and extent compare well with observationally based data

A novel Bayesian approach to accounting for uncertainty in fMRI-derived estimates of cerebral oxygen metabolism fluctuations

Calibrated blood oxygenation level dependent (BOLD) imaging is a multimodal functional MRI technique designed to estimate changes in cerebral oxygen metabolism from measured changes in cerebral blood flow and the BOLD signal. This technique addresses fundamental ambiguities associated with quantitative BOLD signal analysis; however, its dependence on biophysical modeling creates uncertainty in the resulting oxygen metabolism estimates. In this work, we developed a Bayesian approach to estimating the oxygen metabolism response to a neural stimulus and used it to examine the uncertainty that arises in calibrated BOLD estimation due to the presence of unmeasured model parameters. We applied our approach to estimate the CMRO2 response to a visual task using the traditional hypercapnia calibration experiment as well as to estimate the metabolic response to both a visual task and hypercapnia using the measurement of baseline apparent R2' as a calibration technique. Further, in order to examine the effects of cerebral spinal fluid (CSF) signal contamination on the measurement of apparent R2', we examined the effects of measuring this parameter with and without CSF-nulling. We found that the two calibration techniques provided consistent estimates of the metabolic response on average, with a median R2'-based estimate of the metabolic response to CO2 of 1.4%, and R2'- and hypercapnia-calibrated estimates of the visual response of 27% and 24%, respectively. However, these estimates were sensitive to different sources of estimation uncertainty. The R2'-calibrated estimate was highly sensitive to CSF contamination and to uncertainty in unmeasured model parameters describing flow-volume coupling, capillary bed characteristics, and the iso-susceptibility saturation of blood. The hypercapnia-calibrated estimate was relatively insensitive to these parameters but highly sensitive to the assumed metabolic response to CO2

Steric sea level variability (1993-2010) in an ensemble of ocean reanalyses and objective analyses

Quantifying the effect of the seawater density changes on sea level variability is of crucial importance for climate change studies, as the sea level cumulative rise can be regarded as both an important climate change indicator and a possible danger for human activities in coastal areas. In this work, as part of the Ocean Reanalysis Intercomparison Project, the global and regional steric sea level changes are estimated and compared from an ensemble of 16 ocean reanalyses and 4 objective analyses. These estimates are initially compared with a satellite-derived (altimetry minus gravimetry) dataset for a short period (2003–2010). The ensemble mean exhibits a significant high correlation at both global and regional scale, and the ensemble of ocean reanalyses outperforms that of objective analyses, in particular in the Southern Ocean. The reanalysis ensemble mean thus represents a valuable tool for further analyses, although large uncertainties remain for the inter-annual trends. Within the extended intercomparison period that spans the altimetry era (1993–2010), we find that the ensemble of reanalyses and objective analyses are in good agreement, and both detect a trend of the global steric sea level of 1.0 and 1.1 ± 0.05 mm/year, respectively. However, the spread among the products of the halosteric component trend exceeds the mean trend itself, questioning the reliability of its estimate. This is related to the scarcity of salinity observations before the Argo era. Furthermore, the impact of deep ocean layers is non-negligible on the steric sea level variability (22 and 12 % for the layers below 700 and 1500 m of depth, respectively), although the small deep ocean trends are not significant with respect to the products spread

Antarctic Sea Ice Area in CMIP6

Fully coupled climate models have long shown a wide range of Antarctic sea ice states and evolution over the satellite era. Here, we present a high‐level evaluation of Antarctic sea ice in 40 models from the most recent phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Many models capture key characteristics of the mean seasonal cycle of sea ice area (SIA), but some simulate implausible historical mean states compared to satellite observations, leading to large intermodel spread. Summer SIA is consistently biased low across the ensemble. Compared to the previous model generation (CMIP5), the intermodel spread in winter and summer SIA has reduced, and the regional distribution of sea ice concentration has improved. Over 1979–2018, many models simulate strong negative trends in SIA concurrently with stronger‐than‐observed trends in global mean surface temperature (GMST). By the end of the 21st century, models project clear differences in sea ice between forcing scenarios

Symbiotic microbes from marine invertebrates: Driving a new era of natural product drug discovery.

Invertebrates account for more than 89% of all extant organisms in the marine environment, represented by over 174,600 species (recorded to date). Such diversity is mirrored in (or more likely increased by) the microbial symbionts associated with this group and in the marine natural products (or MNPs) that they produce. Since the early 1950s over 20,000 MNPs have been discovered, including compounds produced by symbiotic bacteria, and the chemical diversity of compounds produced from marine sources has led to them being referred to as "blue gold" in the search for new drugs. For example, 80% of novel antibiotics stemming from the marine environment have come from Actinomycetes, many of which can be found associated with marine sponges, and compounds with anti-tumorigenic and anti-diabetic potential have also been isolated from marine symbionts. In fact, it has been estimated that marine sources formed the basis of over 50% of FDA-approved drugs between 1981 and 2002. In this review, we explore the diversity of marine microbial symbionts by examining their use as the producers of novel pharmaceutical actives, together with a discussion of the opportunities and constraints offered by “blue gold” drug discovery.N

Palaeoenvironmental and chronological context of hominin occupations of the Armenian Highlands during MIS 3:Evidence from Ararat-1 cave

Archaeological and palaeoenvironmental evidence from the Armenian Highlands and wider southern Caucasus region emphasises the significance of Marine Oxygen Isotope Stage 3 (c. 57–29 ka) as a crucial period for understanding hominin behaviours amidst environmental fluctuations. Ararat-1 cave, situated in the Ararat Depression, Republic of Armenia, presents potential for resolving emerging key debates regarding hominin land use adaptations during this interval, due to its well-preserved lithic artefacts and faunal assemblages. We present the first results of combined sedimentological, geochronological (luminescence and radiocarbon), archaeological and palaeoecological (macrofauna, microfauna and microcharcoal) study of the Ararat-1 sequence. We demonstrate sediment accumulation occurred between 52 and 35 ka and was caused by a combination of aeolian activity, cave rockfall and water action. Whilst the upper strata of the Ararat-1 sequence experienced postdepositional disturbance due to faunal and anthropogenic processes, the lower strata remain relatively undisturbed. We suggest that during a stable period within MIS 3, Ararat-1 was inhabited by Middle Palaeolithic hominins amidst a mosaic of semi-arid shrub, grassland, and temperate woodland ecosystems. These hominins utilised local and distant toolstone raw materials, indicating their ability to adapt to diverse ecological and elevation gradients. Through comparison of Ararat-1 with other sequences in the region, we highlight the spatia

Short-term occupations at high elevation during the Middle Paleolithic at Kalavan 2 (Republic of Armenia)

The Armenian highlands encompasses rugged and environmentally diverse landscapes and is characterized by a mosaic of distinct ecological niches and large temperature gradients. Strong seasonal fluctuations in resource availability along topographic gradients likely prompted Pleistocene hominin groups to adapt by adjusting their mobility strategies. However, the role that elevated landscapes played in hunter-gatherer settlement systems during the Late Pleistocene (Middle Palaeolithic [MP]) remains poorly understood. At 1640 m above sea level, the MP site of Kalavan 2 (Armenia) is ideally positioned for testing hypotheses involving elevation-dependent seasonal mobility and subsistence strategies. Renewed excavations at Kalavan 2 exposed three main occupation horizons and ten additional low densities lithic and faunal assemblages. The results provide a new chronological, stratigraphical, and paleoenvironmental framework for hominin behaviors between ca. 60 to 45 ka. The evidence presented suggests that the stratified occupations at Kalavan 2 locale were repeated ephemerally most likely related to hunting in a high-elevation within the mountainous steppe landscape.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio