269 research outputs found
Macroeconomic Forecasting using Dynamic Factor Models: The Case of Morocco
This article discusses the use of dynamic factor models in macroeconomic
forecasting, with a focus on the Factor-Augmented Error Correction Model
(FECM). The FECM combines the advantages of cointegration and dynamic factor
models, providing a flexible and reliable approach to macroeconomic
forecasting, especially for non-stationary variables. We evaluate the
forecasting performance of the FECM model on a large dataset of 117 Moroccan
economic series with quarterly frequency. Our study shows that FECM outperforms
traditional econometric models in terms of forecasting accuracy and robustness.
The inclusion of long-term information and common factors in FECM enhances its
ability to capture economic dynamics and leads to better forecasting
performance than other competing models. Our results suggest that FECM can be a
valuable tool for macroeconomic forecasting in Morocco and other similar
economies
Investigating the Nexus between Public Investment and Moroccoâs Economic Growth through ARDL Modeling
As a primary pillar of economic growth, public investment, which mainly covers expenditure on education, research and development as well as the infrastructure, has a strong impact on the economic development of countries. In this context, as perspectives of this research, we aim to contribute to the answer to the following questions : should moroccan public policies maintain a high level of public investment to support the economic growth ? What place should they give to private investment in this equation, and what role do inflation and education investment play in the relationship between public investment and growth ?
Thus, based on the endogenous growth theory, we explore the link between public investment and growth in the moroccan context over the period 2004-2020th. For this purpose, we use the ARDL (Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag) model to test the cointegration relationship between these two variables. As control variables of the model, we use foreign direct investment, inflation, and education investment. The key points of this study are the analysis of the effect (positive/negative) and (significant/non-significant) of public investment on economic growth
Impact of Covid-19 on The Moroccan Stock Market: Application of The GARCH/EGARCH Approach
Using daily data, this paper applies generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (garch) and exponential garch (egarch) approach to examine the effect of the current covid-19 pandemic crisis on the moroccan stock market from 01/01/2019 to 31/12/2020. More specifically, we will conduct a comparative study analyzing the volatility and leverage effect of stock market returns of the moroccan all shares index (masi), an index representative of the casablanca stock market, before and during the period of covid-19. The data used in this study are daily values of the evolution of the masi index. Our selected empirical results indicate that there is a negative effect of the covid-19 pandemic on the moroccan stock market
RISQUES ET GOUVERNANCE DES ORGANISATIONS « Cas des entreprises publiques au Maroc »
La gestion des risques constitue une partie intĂ©grante des structures dites de « pilotage», qui apporte une garantie sur la gouvernance des institutions, notamment celles appartenant Ă la sphĂšre publique en Ă©tant rĂ©gie par un cadre rĂ©glementaire spĂ©cifique. La gestion des risques fournit dans ce sens une vision transversale et synthĂ©tique des risques majeurs auxquels est exposĂ©e quelconque structure et veille Ă ce que le niveau de risque pris soit cohĂ©rent avec les orientations et les objectifs dĂ©finis par les instances de gouvernance de lâentreprise publique. On propose Ă travers ce papier dâexposer les principaux concepts du management des risques en tant que partie intĂ©grante de la gouvernance en mettant en exergue une approche de la gouvernance en lien avec la gestion des risques dans une logique de prĂ©sentation dâun management intĂ©grĂ© et globale de lâentreprise. Lâobjectif Ă©tant de prĂ©senter le management des risques au niveau de lâentreprise publique en mettant en avant la trame de sa mise en Ćuvre aidant Ă identifier, Ă©valuer le risque et dâen Ă©tablir des niveaux acceptables de prise de risque tout en Ă©tant compatibles avec les orientations fixĂ©es par les organes de pilotage de lâentreprise
Comparative analysis of active and passive portfolio management: A theoretical approach
The crises that the world has experienced in the last few years are deeply changing the structure of the world economy and therefore of finance. Human being is probably at the end of 40 years of big deflation and may be at the beginning of a great reflation. This evolution will strongly impact the winning investment strategies, and will push investors to experiment with other methods in order to preserve their income and minimize risks. To achieve this, they must implement effective portfolio management by deploying tools and rigorous processes to manage priorities. Portfolio management can be achieved through either active or passive management. Active management aims to outperform the reference market of the managed portfolio. The manager, using various analytical tools, will select in a discretionary way the products, securities or sectors most likely to grow faster than the market. Conversely, passive or index management aims to faithfully replicate the performance of a benchmark market. There are several reasons why investors may choose between the two methods. Using a traditional literature review, this paper aims to outline the characteristics of each form of portfolio management by highlighting the key differences between active and passive management. This paper also emphasizes that personal preferences, investment objectives and risk tolerance play a crucial role in this decision. The main lessons of this article are that active management has the ability to provide higher returns, but is also accompanied by high fees and greater uncertainties regarding future performance. Passive management, by contrast, offers a more cost-effective approach, but can limit the opportunities for outperformance.
Keywords: active management, passive management, investment, literature review, comparative study.
JEL Classification: G11, G14.
Paper type: Theoretical Research.Les crises que le monde a connues ces derniĂšres annĂ©es modifient profondĂ©ment la structure de l'Ă©conomie mondiale et par consĂ©quent de la finance. L'humanitĂ© est probablement Ă la fin de 40 ans de dĂ©flation importante, quâelle se trouve potentiellement aux prĂ©mices dâune phase de grande reflation. Cette Ă©volution aura un impact important sur les stratĂ©gies d'investissement gagnantes et poussera les investisseurs Ă expĂ©rimenter d'autres mĂ©thodes afin de prĂ©server leurs revenus et de minimiser les risques. Pour y parvenir, ils doivent mettre en Ćuvre une gestion de portefeuille efficace en dĂ©ployant des outils et des processus rigoureux pour gĂ©rer les prioritĂ©s. La gestion de portefeuille peut ĂȘtre rĂ©alisĂ©e par le biais d'une gestion active ou passive. La gestion active vise Ă surperformer le marchĂ© de rĂ©fĂ©rence du portefeuille gĂ©rĂ©. Le gestionnaire, Ă l'aide de divers outils analytiques, sĂ©lectionnera de maniĂšre discrĂ©tionnaire les produits, les titres ou les secteurs les plus susceptibles de croĂźtre plus rapidement que le marchĂ©. Ă l'inverse, la gestion passive ou indicielle vise Ă reproduire avec fidĂ©litĂ© la performance d'un marchĂ© de rĂ©fĂ©rence. Plusieurs raisons poussent les investisseurs Ă choisir entre les deux mĂ©thodes. Ă l'aide d'une revue de littĂ©rature traditionnelle, ce document vise Ă prĂ©senter les caractĂ©ristiques de chaque forme de gestion de portefeuille en soulignant les principales diffĂ©rences entre la gestion active et la gestion passive. Cet article souligne Ă©galement que les prĂ©fĂ©rences personnelles, les objectifs d'investissement et la tolĂ©rance au risque jouent un rĂŽle crucial dans cette dĂ©cision. Les principaux constats de cet article sont notamment que la gestion active permet d'obtenir des rendements plus Ă©levĂ©s, mais qu'elle s'accompagne Ă©galement de frais Ă©levĂ©s et d'une plus grande incertitude quant Ă la performance Ă venir. La gestion passive, en revanche, offre une approche plus rentable, mais peut limiter les possibilitĂ©s de surperformance.
Mots-clés: gestion active, gestion passive, investissement, revue de la littérature, étude comparative.
Classification JEL: G11, G14.
Type d'article: Article de recherch
Speech recognition system based on Hidden Markov Model concerning the Moroccan dialect DARIJA
In this work, we present a system for automatic speech recognition on the Moroccan dialect. We used the hidden Markov model to model the phonetic units corresponding to words taken from the training base. The results obtained are very encouraging given the size of the training set and the number of people taken to the registration. To demonstrate the flexibility of the hidden Markov model we conducted a comparison of results obtained by the latter and dynamic programming
COMPROMIS MARCHE ALĂATOIRE ET INFORMATION FINANCIĂRE
Le modĂšle de la marche alĂ©atoire reste le modĂšle de rĂ©fĂ©rence sur les marchĂ©s financiers. Sa parcimonie et sa maniabilitĂ© sont certes attractives. Toutefois, il ne faut pas perdre de vue les hypothĂšses restrictives, voire simplistes, qui lui servent de base et limitent sa capacitĂ© Ă reproduire la dynamique du marchĂ©. Lâambition de cet article consiste Ă se pencher sur le comportement gĂ©nĂ©ral des actifs financiers et leurs tendances caractĂ©risĂ©e par un niveau de volatilitĂ© et de rendement donnĂ©. Les facteurs qui dĂ©terminent cette Ă©volution sont certes nombreux, les uns sont liĂ©s Ă lâenvironnement Ă©conomique et monĂ©taire des entreprises, les autres sont liĂ©s aux mĂ©canismes de marchĂ©, Ă lâĂ©ventuelle spĂ©cificitĂ© de la psychologie des intervenants et aux caractĂ©ristiques financiĂšres des entreprises. Dans le cadre de ce travail, on va essayer de vĂ©rifier cette thĂ©orie au niveau du marchĂ© boursier marocain en choisissant un certain nombre de titres qui font lâobjet dâune multitude de transactions par jour
Priprema kromatografskog medija iz alĆŸirskog dijatomita
X-ray photoelectron spectrometry combined with FTIR spectroscopy, X-ray diffraction analysis (XRD), and scanning electron microscopy (SEM) allowed highlighting the different interactions of grafts or impregnated polymers on the mineral surface of diatomite obtained by treatment of raw diatomite under reflux with a 5 M solution of hydrochloric acid for 24 h. This acid treatment led to almost total elimination of organic impurities with a total decalcification of the diatomite, leading to its deferrization and partial dealumination, and the obtaining of a support with a homogeneous siliceous surface mainly constituted of SiâOH and SiâOâSi functional groups. The surface of the diatomite washed with HCl became totally saturated with PEG-20M and SE30 with respective impregnation rates of 5 and 2 %. However, the grafting and/or impregnation of this diatomite with octadecyltrichlorosilane (C18) and docosane (C22) led to the formation of perfectly homogeneous surfaces.
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.Rendgenska fotoelektronska spektroskopija u kombinaciji s FTIR spektroskopijom, rendgenskom difrakcijskom analizom (XRD) i skenirajuÄom elektronskom mikroskopijom (SEM) omoguÄila je uvid u razliÄite interakcije graftova ili impregniranih polimera na mineralnoj povrĆĄini dijatomita dobivenih obradom sirova dijatomita pod refluksom 5 M otopine klorovodiÄne kiseline tijekom 24 h. Navedena kiselinska obrada gotovo je u potpunosti uklonila organske neÄistoÄe uz potpunu dekalcifikaciju dijatomita, deferizaciju i djelomiÄnu dealuminaciju, uz dobivanje kvarcne povrĆĄine koja se uglavnom sastojala od funkcionalnih skupina SiâOH i SiâOâSi. PovrĆĄina dijatomita isprana HCl-om u postala je u potpunosti zasiÄena PEG-20M-om i SE30-icom s impregnacijom od 5 odnosno 2 %. Graftiranje i/ili impregnacija dijatomita oktadeciltriklorosilanom (C18) i dokozanom (C22) dovela je do stvaranja savrĆĄeno homogenih povrĆĄina.
Ovo djelo je dano na koriĆĄtenje pod licencom Creative Commons Imenovanje 4.0 meÄunarodna
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