A General Approach for Predicting the Behavior of the Supreme Court of the United States

Building on developments in machine learning and prior work in the science of judicial prediction, we construct a model designed to predict the behavior of the Supreme Court of the United States in a generalized, out-of-sample context. To do so, we develop a time evolving random forest classifier which leverages some unique feature engineering to predict more than 240,000 justice votes and 28,000 cases outcomes over nearly two centuries (1816-2015). Using only data available prior to decision, our model outperforms null (baseline) models at both the justice and case level under both parametric and non-parametric tests. Over nearly two centuries, we achieve 70.2% accuracy at the case outcome level and 71.9% at the justice vote level. More recently, over the past century, we outperform an in-sample optimized null model by nearly 5%. Our performance is consistent with, and improves on the general level of prediction demonstrated by prior work; however, our model is distinctive because it can be applied out-of-sample to the entire past and future of the Court, not a single term. Our results represent an important advance for the science of quantitative legal prediction and portend a range of other potential applications.Comment: version 2.02; 18 pages, 5 figures. This paper is related to but distinct from arXiv:1407.6333, and the results herein supersede arXiv:1407.6333. Source code available at https://github.com/mjbommar/scotus-predict-v

P2519: The Impact of Transcatheter Aortic Valve Implantation on Quality of Life: A Mixed Methods Study

Objective: To provide an in-depth understanding of patients' views about the impact of transcatheter aortic valve implantation on self-reported quality of life. Background: Transcatheter aortic valve implantation is considered to be the gold standard of care for inoperable patients diagnosed with severe symptomatic aortic stenosis. Mid- to long-term clinical outcomes are favourable and questionnaire data indicates improvements in quality of life but an in-depth understanding of how quality of life is altered by the intervention is missing. Methods: A mixed methods study design with a total of 89 in-depth qualitative interviews conducted with participants (39% male; mean age 81.7 years), 1 and 3 months post TAVI, recruited from a regional centre in England. Data were triangulated with questionnaire data (SF-36 and EQ5D-VAS) collected, pre, 1 and 3 months post implantation. Results: Participants' accounts were characterised by four key themes; shortened life, extended life, limited life and changed life. Quality of life was changed through two mechanisms. Most participants reported a reduced symptom burden and all explained that their life expectancy was improved. Questionnaire data supported interview data with gradual improvements in mean EQ-5D scores and SF-36 physical and mental domain scores at 1 and 3 months compared to baseline. Conclusion: Findings suggest that TAVI was of variable benefit, producing considerable improvements in either mental or physical health in many participants, while a smaller proportion continued to deteriorate

Matrix Rigidity Regulates Cancer Cell Growth and Cellular Phenotype

Background: The mechanical properties of the extracellular matrix have an important role in cell growth and differentiation. However, it is unclear as to what extent cancer cells respond to changes in the mechanical properties (rigidity/stiffness) of the microenvironment and how this response varies among cancer cell lines. Methodology/Principal Findings: In this study we used a recently developed 96-well plate system that arrays extracellular matrix-conjugated polyacrylamide gels that increase in stiffness by at least 50-fold across the plate. This plate was used to determine how changes in the rigidity of the extracellular matrix modulate the biological properties of tumor cells. The cell lines tested fall into one of two categories based on their proliferation on substrates of differing stiffness: ‘‘rigidity dependent’ ’ (those which show an increase in cell growth as extracellular rigidity is increased), and ‘‘rigidity independent’’ (those which grow equally on both soft and stiff substrates). Cells which grew poorly on soft gels also showed decreased spreading and migration under these conditions. More importantly, seeding the cell lines into the lungs of nude mice revealed that the ability of cells to grow on soft gels in vitro correlated with their ability to grow in a soft tissue environment in vivo. The lung carcinoma line A549 responded to culture on soft gels by expressing the differentiated epithelial marker E-cadherin and decreasing the expression of the mesenchymal transcription factor Slug. Conclusions/Significance: These observations suggest that the mechanical properties of the matrix environment play

Randomized trial of complete versus lesion-only revascularization in patients undergoing primary percutaneous coronary intervention for STEMI and Multivessel Disease

BACKGROUND: The optimal management of patients found to have multivessel disease while undergoing primary percutaneous coronary intervention (P-PCI) for ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction is uncertain.   OBJECTIVES: CvLPRIT (Complete versus Lesion-only Primary PCI trial) is a U.K. open-label randomized study comparing complete revascularization at index admission with treatment of the infarct-related artery (IRA) only.   METHODS: After they provided verbal assent and underwent coronary angiography, 296 patients in 7 U.K. centers were randomized through an interactive voice-response program to either in-hospital complete revascularization (n = 150) or IRA-only revascularization (n = 146). Complete revascularization was performed either at the time of P-PCI or before hospital discharge. Randomization was stratified by infarct location (anterior/nonanterior) and symptom onset (≤3 h or >3 h). The primary endpoint was a composite of all-cause death, recurrent myocardial infarction (MI), heart failure, and ischemia-driven revascularization within 12 months.   RESULTS: Patient groups were well matched for baseline clinical characteristics. The primary endpoint occurred in 10.0% of the complete revascularization group versus 21.2% in the IRA-only revascularization group (hazard ratio: 0.45; 95% confidence interval: 0.24 to 0.84; p = 0.009). A trend toward benefit was seen early after complete revascularization (p = 0.055 at 30 days). Although there was no significant reduction in death or MI, a nonsignificant reduction in all primary endpoint components was seen. There was no reduction in ischemic burden on myocardial perfusion scintigraphy or in the safety endpoints of major bleeding, contrast-induced nephropathy, or stroke between the groups.   CONCLUSIONS: In patients presenting for P-PCI with multivessel disease, index admission complete revascularization significantly lowered the rate of the composite primary endpoint at 12 months compared with treating only the IRA. In such patients, inpatient total revascularization may be considered, but larger clinical trials are required to confirm this result and specifically address whether this strategy is associated with improved survival. (Complete Versus Lesion-only Primary PCI Pilot Study [CvLPRIT]; ISRCTN70913605)

Environmental DNA metabarcoding of lake fish communities reflects long-term data from established survey methods

Organisms continuously release DNA into their environments via shed cells, excreta, gametes and decaying material. Analysis of this ‘environmental DNA’ (eDNA) is revolutionizing biodiversity monitoring. eDNA outperforms many established survey methods for targeted detection of single species, but few studies have investigated how well eDNA reflects whole communities of organisms in natural environments. We investigated whether eDNA can recover accurate qualitative and quantitative information about fish communities in large lakes, by comparison to the most comprehensive long-term gill-net data set available in the UK. Seventy-eight 2L water samples were collected along depth profile transects, gill-net sites and from the shoreline in three large, deep lakes (Windermere, Bassenthwaite Lake and Derwent Water) in the English Lake District. Water samples were assayed by eDNA metabarcoding of the mitochondrial 12S and cytochrome b regions. Fourteen of the 16 species historically recorded in Windermere were detected using eDNA, compared to four species in the most recent gill-net survey, demonstrating eDNA is extremely sensitive for detecting species. A key question for biodiversity monitoring is whether eDNA can accurately estimate abundance. To test this, we used the number of sequence reads per species and the proportion of sampling sites in which a species was detected with eDNA (i.e. site occupancy) as proxies for abundance. eDNA abundance data consistently correlated with rank abundance estimates from established surveys. These results demonstrate that eDNA metabarcoding can describe fish communities in large lakes, both qualitatively and quantitatively, and has great potential as a complementary tool to established monitoring methods

Solving radiative transfer with line overlaps using Gauss Seidel algorithms

The improvement in observational facilities requires refining the modelling of the geometrical structures of astrophysical objects. Nevertheless, for complex problems such as line overlap in molecules showing hyperfine structure, a detailed analysis still requires a large amount of computing time and thus, misinterpretation cannot be dismissed due to an undersampling of the whole space of parameters. We extend the discussion of the implementation of the Gauss--Seidel algorithm in spherical geometry and include the case of hyperfine line overlap. We first review the basics of the short characteristics method that is used to solve the radiative transfer equations. Details are given on the determination of the Lambda operator in spherical geometry. The Gauss--Seidel algorithm is then described and, by analogy to the plan--parallel case, we see how to introduce it in spherical geometry. Doing so requires some approximations in order to keep the algorithm competitive. Finally, line overlap effects are included. The convergence speed of the algorithm is compared to the usual Jacobi iterative schemes. The gain in the number of iterations is typically factors of 2 and 4 for the two implementations made of the Gauss--Seidel algorithm. This is obtained despite the introduction of approximations in the algorithm. A comparison of results obtained with and without line overlaps for N2H+, HCN, and HNC shows that the J=3-2 line intensities are significantly underestimated in models where line overlap is neglected.Comment: 11 pages, 13 figures, accepted in A&