Parametrizing Brexit: Mapping Twitter Political Space to Parliamentary Constituencies

In this paper, a proof of concept study is performed to validate the use of social media signal to model the ideological coordinates underpinning the Brexit debate . We rely on geographically - en rich ed Twitter data and a purpose - built , deep learning algorithm to map the political value space of users tweeting the referendum onto Parliamentary Constituencies. We find a significant incidence of nationalist sentiments and economic views expressed on Twitter , which pers ist throughout the campaign and are only offset in the last days when a globalist upsurge brings the British Twittersphere closer to a divide between nationalis t and globalis t standpoints . Upon combining demographic variables with the classifier scores , we f i nd that the model explains 41% of the variance in the referendum vote, an indi cation that not only material inequality, but also ideological readjustments have contributed to the outcome of the referendum . We conclude with a discussion of conceptual and methodological challenges in signal - processing social media data as a source for the measurement of public opinion

Pharmacological agents for preventing morbidity associated with the haemodynamic response to tracheal intubation

Background: Several drugs have been used in attenuating or obliterating the response associated with laryngoscopy and tracheal intubation. These changes are of little concern in relatively healthy patients but can lead to morbidity and mortality in the high risk patient population.Objectives: The primary objective of this review was to determine the effectiveness of pharmacological agents in preventing the morbidity and mortality resulting from the haemodynamic changes in response to laryngoscopy and tracheal intubation in adult patients aged 18 years and above who were undergoing elective surgery in the operating room setting.SEARCH Methods: We searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) (2011, Issue 6), MEDLINE (1950 to June 2011), EMBASE (1980 to June 2011), and the bibliographies of published studies. We reran our search from June 2011 to December 2012 and will deal with these studies when we update the review.SELECTION CRITERIA: We included randomized controlled trials (RCTs) that compared a drug used as an intervention for preventing or attenuating the haemodynamic response to tracheal intubation to a control group, and that mentioned mortality, major morbidity, arrhythmia or electrocardiogram (ECG) evidence of ischaemia in the methodology, results, or discussion section of the reports.DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two authors independently assessed trial quality and extracted the outcome data.MAIN Results: We included 72 RCTs. The included trials studied the effects of 32 drugs belonging to different pharmacological groups. Only two trials mentioned the primary outcome of morbidity and mortality related to the haemodynamic response to tracheal intubation. Of the secondary outcomes, 40 of the included trials observed arrhythmia only, 11 observed myocardial ischaemia only and 20 observed both arrhythmias and myocardial ischaemia. Arrhythmias were observed in 2932 participants and myocardial ischaemia in 1616 participants. Arrhythmias were observed in 134 out of 993 patients in the control group compared to 80 out of 1939 in the intervention group. The risk of arrhythmias was significantly reduced with pharmacological interventions in the pooled data (Peto odds ratio (OR) 0.19, 95% CI 0.14 to 0.26, P \u3c 0.00001, I(2)= 47%). Local anaesthetics, calcium channel blockers, beta blockers and narcotics reduced the risk of arrhythmia in the intervention group compared to the control group. Myocardial ischaemia was observed in 21 out of 604 patients in the control group compared to 10 out of 1012 in the treatment group; the result was statistically significant (Peto OR 0.45, 95% CI 0.22 to 0.92, P = 0.03, I(2) = 19%). However, in subgroup analysis only local anaesthetics significantly reduced the ECG changes indicating ischaemia, but this evidence came from one study. The majority of the studies had a negative outcome. Hypotension and bradycardia were reported with 40 g kg(-1) intravenous alfentanil, chest rigidity with 75 ug kg(-1) alfentanil, and increased bronchomotor tone with sympathetic blockers.There were 17 studies which included high risk patients. Pharmacological treatment in this group resulted in the reduction of arrhythmias when the data from nine trials looking at arrhythmias were pooled (Peto OR 0.18, 95% CI 0.05 to 0.59, P = 0.005, I(2) = 80%). The analysis from four studies was not included. Three of these trials looked at the effect of sympathetic blockers but arrhythmias or myocardial ischaemia was observed throughout the perioperative period in two studies and some patients had arrhythmias due to atropine premedication in the third study. In the fourth study the authors mentioned myocardial ischaemia in the objectives section but did not report it in the results.AUTHORS\u27 CONCLUSIONS: The risk of arrhythmias associated with tracheal intubation was significantly reduced with pre-induction administration of local anaesthetics, calcium channel blockers, beta blockers and narcotics compared to placebo. Pharmacological intervention also reduced the risk of ECG evidence of myocardial ischaemia in the pooled data. Lignocaine pretreatment showed a significant effect but evidence came from one study only. The data suggested that there may be a reduction in ECG evidence of myocardial ischaemia with beta blocker pretreatment but this difference was not statistically significant. There is a need to focus on outcomes rather than haemodynamic measurements alone when studying this response in future trials

Positive feedbacks and alternative stable states in forest leaf types

The emergence of alternative stable states in forest systems has significant implications for the functioning and structure of the terrestrial biosphere, yet empirical evidence remains scarce. Here, we combine global forest biodiversity observations and simulations to test for alternative stable states in the presence of evergreen and deciduous forest types. We reveal a bimodal distribution of forest leaf types across temperate regions of the Northern Hemisphere that cannot be explained by the environment alone, suggesting signatures of alternative forest states. Moreover, we empirically demonstrate the existence of positive feedbacks in tree growth, recruitment and mortality, with trees having 4–43% higher growth rates, 14–17% higher survival rates and 4–7 times higher recruitment rates when they are surrounded by trees of their own leaf type. Simulations show that the observed positive feedbacks are necessary and sufficient to generate alternative forest states, which also lead to dependency on history (hysteresis) during ecosystem transition from evergreen to deciduous forests and vice versa. We identify hotspots of bistable forest types in evergreen-deciduous ecotones, which are likely driven by soil-related positive feedbacks. These findings are integral to predicting the distribution of forest biomes, and aid to our understanding of biodiversity, carbon turnover, and terrestrial climate feedbacks