Unravelling the transport of moisture into the Saharan Air Layer using passive tracers and isotopes

The subtropical free troposphere plays a critical role in the radiative balance of the Earth. However, the complex interactions controlling moisture in this sensitive region and, in particular, the relative importance of long-range transport compared to lower-tropospheric mixing, remain unclear. This study uses the regional COSMO model equipped with stable water isotopes and passive water tracers to quantify the contributions of different evaporative sources to the moisture and its stable isotope signals in the eastern subtropical North Atlantic free troposphere. In summer, this region is characterized by two alternating large-scale circulation regimes: (i) dry, isotopically depleted air from the upper-level extratropics, and (ii) humid, enriched air advected from Northern Africa within the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) consisting of a mixture of moisture of diverse origin (tropical and extratropical North Atlantic, Africa, Europe, the Mediterranean). This diversity of moisture sources in regime (ii) arises from the convergent inflow at low levels of air from different neighbouring regions into the Saharan heat low (SHL), where it is mixed and injected by convective plumes into the large-scale flow aloft, and thereafter expelled to the North Atlantic within the SAL. Remarkably, this regime is associated with a large contribution of moisture that evaporated from the North Atlantic, which makes a detour through the SHL and eventually reaches the 850–550 hPa layer above the Canaries. Moisture transport from Europe via the SHL to the same layer leads to the strongest enrichment in heavy isotopes (δ2H correlates most strongly with this tracer). The vertical profiles over the North Atlantic show increased humidity and δ2H and reduced static stability in the 850–550 hPa layer, and smaller cloud fraction in the boundary layer in regime (ii) compared to regime (i), highlighting the key role of moisture transport through the SHL in modulating the radiative balance in this region

Disentangling different moisture transport pathways over the eastern subtropical North Atlantic using multi-platform isotope observations and high-resolution numerical modelling

Due to its dryness, the subtropical free troposphere plays a critical role in the radiative balance of the Earth’s climate system. But the complex interactions of the dynamical and physical processes controlling the variability in the moisture budget of this sensitive region of the subtropical atmosphere are still not fully understood. Stable water isotopes can provide important information about several of the latter processes, namely subsidence drying, turbulent mixing, dry and moist convective moistening. In this study, we use high-resolution simulations of the isotope-enabled version of the regional weather and climate prediction model of the Consortium for Small-Scale Modelling (COSMO$_{iso}$) to investigate predominant moisture transport pathways in the Canary Islands region in the eastern subtropical North Atlantic. Comparison of the simulated isotope signals with multi-platform isotope observations (aircraft-based in situ measurements, ground-based and space-based remote sensing observations) from a field campaign in summer 2013 shows that COSMO$_{iso}$ can reproduce the observed variability of stable water vapour isotopes on time scales of hours to days, and thus allows studying the mechanisms that control the subtropical free-tropospheric humidity. Changes of isotopic signals along backward trajectories from the Canary Islands region reveal the physical processes behind the short-term isotope variability. We identify four predominant moisture transport pathways of mid-tropospheric air, each with distinct isotopic signatures: (1) Air parcels originating from the convective boundary layer of the Saharan heat low (SHL). These are characterised by a homogenous isotopic composition with a particularly high δD (median mid-tropospheric δD = −122 ‰), which results from dry convective mixing of low-level moisture of diverse origin advected into the SHL. (2) Air parcels originating from the free troposphere above the SHL. Although experiencing the largest changes in humidity and δD during their subsidence over West Africa, these air parcels typically have lower δD values (median δD = −148 ‰) than air parcels originating from the boundary layer of the SHL. (3) Air parcels originating from outside the SHL region, typically descending from tropical upper levels south of the SHL, which are often affected by moist convective injections from mesoscale convective systems in the Sahel. Their isotopic composition is much less enriched in heavy isotopes (median δD = −175 ‰) than those from the SHL region. (4) Air parcels subsiding from the upper-level extratropical North Atlantic. This pathway leads to the driest and most depleted conditions (median δD = −255 ‰) in the middle troposphere near the Canary Islands. The alternation of these transport pathways explains to a large degree the observed high variability in humidity and δD on synoptic time scales. We further show that the four different transport pathways are related to specific large scale-flow conditions. In particular, distinct differences in the location of the North African mid-level anticyclone and of extratropical Rossby wave patterns occur between the four transport pathways. Overall, this study demonstrates that the adopted Lagrangian isotope perspective enhances our understanding of air mass transport and mixing and offers a sound interpretation of the free-tropospheric variability of specific humidity and isotope composition on time scales of hours to days in contrasting atmospheric conditions over the eastern subtropical North Atlantic

A Lagrangian perspective on stable water isotopes during the West African Monsoon

We present a Lagrangian framework for identifying mechanisms that control the isotopic composition of mid-tropospheric water vapor in the Sahel region during the West African Monsoon 2016. In this region mixing between contrasting air masses, strong convective activity, as well as surface and rain evaporation lead to high variability in the distribution of stable water isotopologues. Using backward trajectories based on high-resolution isotope-enabled model data, we obtain information not only about the source regions of Sahelian air masses, but also about the evolution of H$_{2}$O and its isotopologue HDO (expressed as δD) along the pathways of individual air parcels. We sort the full trajectory ensemble into groups with similar transport pathways and hydro-meteorological properties, such as precipitation and relative humidity, and investigate the evolution of the corresponding paired {H$_{2}$O, δD} distributions. The use of idealized process curves in the {H$_{2}$O, δD} phase space allows us to attribute isotopic changes to contributions from (1) air mass mixing, (2) Rayleigh condensation during convection, and (3) microphysical processes depleting the vapor beyond the Rayleigh prediction, i.e., partial rain evaporation in unsaturated and isotopic equilibration δin saturated conditions. Different combinations of these processes along the trajectory ensembles are found to determine the final isotopic composition in the Sahelian troposphere during the monsoon. The presented Lagrangian framework is a powerful tool for interpreting tropospheric water vapor distributions. In the future, it will be applied to satellite observations of H$_{2}$O, δD} over Africa and other regions in order to better quantify characteristics of the hydrological cycle

Future local climate unlike currently observed anywhere

The concept of spatial climate analogs, that is identifying a place with a present-day climate similar to the projections of a place of interest, is a promising method for visualizing and communicating possible effects of climate change. We show that when accounting for seasonal cycles of both temperature and precipitation, it is impossible to find good analogs for projections at many places across the world. For substantial land fractions, primarily in the tropics and subtropics, there are no analogs anywhere with current seasonal cycles of temperature and precipitation matching their projected future conditions. This implies that these places experience the emergence of novel climates. For 1.5 °C global warming about 15% and for 2 °C warming about 21% of the global land is projected to experience novel climates, whereas for a 4 °C warming the corresponding novel climates may emerge on more than a third of the global land fraction. Similar fractions of today's climates, mainly found in the tropics, subtropics and polar north, are anticipated to disappear in the future. Note that the exact quantification of the land fraction is sensitive to the threshold selection. Novel and disappearing climates may have serious consequences for impacts that are sensitive to the full seasonal cycle of temperature and precipitation. For individual seasons, however, spatial analogs may still be a powerful tool for climate change communication.ISSN:1748-9326ISSN:1748-931

Unravelling the transport of moisture into the Saharan Air Layer using passive tracers and isotopes

The subtropical free troposphere plays a critical role in the radiative balance of the Earth. However, the complex interactions controlling moisture in this sensitive region and, in particular, the relative importance of long-range transport compared to lower-tropospheric mixing, remain unclear. This study uses the regional COSMO model equipped with stable water isotopes and passive water tracers to quantify the contributions of different evaporative sources to the moisture and its stable isotope signals in the eastern subtropical North Atlantic free troposphere. In summer, this region is characterized by two alternating large-scale circulation regimes: (i) dry, isotopically depleted air from the upper-level extratropics, and (ii) humid, enriched air advected from Northern Africa within the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) consisting of a mixture of moisture of diverse origin (tropical and extratropical North Atlantic, Africa, Europe, the Mediterranean). This diversity of moisture sources in regime (ii) arises from the convergent inflow at low levels of air from different neighbouring regions into the Saharan heat low (SHL), where it is mixed and injected by convective plumes into the large-scale flow aloft, and thereafter expelled to the North Atlantic within the SAL. Remarkably, this regime is associated with a large contribution of moisture that evaporated from the North Atlantic, which makes a detour through the SHL and eventually reaches the 850-550 hPa layer above the Canaries. Moisture transport from Europe via the SHL to the same layer leads to the strongest enrichment in heavy isotopes (d(2)H correlates most strongly with this tracer). The vertical profiles over the North Atlantic show increased humidity and d(2)H and reduced static stability in the 850-550 hPa layer, and smaller cloud fraction in the boundary layer in regime (ii) compared to regime (i), highlighting the key role of moisture transport through the SHL in modulating the radiative balance in this region.ISSN:1530-261

How Rossby wave breaking modulates the water cycle in the North Atlantic trade wind region

International audienceAbstract. The interaction between low-level tropical clouds and the large-scale circulation is a key feedback element in our climate system, but our understanding of it is still fragmentary. In this paper, the role of upper-level extratropical dynamics for the development of contrasting shallow cumulus cloud patterns in the western North Atlantic trade wind region is investigated. Stable water isotopes are used as tracers for the origin of air parcels arriving in the sub-cloud layer above Barbados, measured continuously in water vapour at the Barbados Cloud Observatory during a 24 d measurement campaign (isoTrades, 25 January to 17 February 2018). These data are combined with a detailed air parcel back-trajectory analysis using hourly ERA5 reanalyses of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. A climatological investigation of the 10 d air parcel history for January and February in the recent decade shows that 55 % of the air parcels arriving in the sub-cloud layer have spent at least 1 d in the extratropics (north of 35∘ N) before arriving in the eastern Caribbean at about 13∘ N. In 2018, this share of air parcels with extratropical origin was anomalously large, with 88 %. In two detailed case studies during the campaign, two flow regimes with distinct isotope signatures transporting extratropical air into the Caribbean are investigated. In both regimes, the air parcels descend from the lower part of the midlatitude jet stream towards the Equator, at the eastern edge of subtropical anticyclones, in the context of Rossby wave breaking events. The zonal location of the wave breaking and the surface anticyclone determine the dominant transport regime. The first regime represents the “typical” trade wind situation, with easterly winds bringing moist air from the eastern North Atlantic into the Caribbean, in a deep layer from the surface up to ∼600 hPa. The moisture source of the sub-cloud layer water vapour is located on average 2000 km upstream of Barbados. In this regime, Rossby wave breaking and the descent of air from the extratropics occur in the eastern North Atlantic, at about 33∘ W. The second regime is associated with air parcels descending slantwise by on average 300 hPa (6 d)−1 directly from the north-east, i.e. at about 50∘ W. These originally dry airstreams experience a more rapid moistening than typical trade wind air parcels when interacting with the subtropical oceanic boundary layer, with moisture sources being located on average 1350 km upstream to the north-east of Barbados. The descent of dry air in the second regime can be steered towards the Caribbean by the interplay of a persistent upper-level cut-off low over the central North Atlantic (about 45∘ W) and the associated surface cyclone underneath. The zonal location of Rossby wave breaking and, consequently, the pathway of extratropical air towards the Caribbean are shown to be relevant for the sub-cloud layer humidity and shallow-cumulus-cloud-cover properties of the North Atlantic winter trades. Overall, this study highlights the importance of extratropical dynamical processes for the tropical water cycle and reveals that these processes lead to a substantial modulation of stable water isotope signals in the near-surface humidity