Analysis of lifetime mortality trajectories in wildlife disease research: BaSTA and Beyond

This is the final version. Available from MDPI via the DOI in this record. Wildlife hosts are important reservoirs of a wide range of human and livestock infections worldwide, and in some instances, wildlife populations are threatened by disease. Yet wildlife diseases are difficult to monitor, and we often lack an understanding of basic epidemiological parameters that might inform disease management and the design of targeted interventions. The impacts of disease on host survival are generally associated with age, yet traditional epidemiological models tend to use simplistic categories of host age. Mortality trajectory analysis provides the opportunity to understand age-specific impacts of disease and uncover epidemiological patterns across complete life histories. Here, we use Bayesian survival trajectory analysis (BaSTA) software to analyse capture-mark-recapture data from a population of wild badgers Meles meles naturally infected with Mycobacterium bovis, the causative agent of tuberculosis in badgers and cattle. We reveal non-constant mortality trajectories, and show that infection exaggerates an age-dependent increase in late-life mortality. This study provides evidence for actuarial senescence in badgers, a species previously believed to display constant mortality throughout life. Our case study demonstrates the application of mortality trajectory analysis in wildlife disease research, but also highlights important limitations. We recommend BaSTA for mortality trajectory analysis in epidemiological research, but also suggest combining approaches that can include diagnostic uncertainty and the movement of hosts between disease states as they age. We recommend future combinations of multi-state and multi-event modelling frameworks for complex systems incorporating age-varying disease states.NERCthe Animal and Plant Health AgencyUniversity of ExeterDepartment for Environment, Food and Rural Affair

Multi-locus homozygosity promotes actuarial senescence in a wild mammal.

This is the final version. Available from Wiley via the DOI in this record. DATA AVAILABILITY STATEMENT: Data available from the Dryad Digital Repository https://doi. org/10.5061/dryad.bk3j9kdg6 (Hudson, 2023)Genome-wide homozygosity, caused for example by inbreeding, is expected to have deleterious effects on survival and/or reproduction. Evolutionary theory predicts that any fitness costs are likely to be detected in late life because natural selection will filter out negative impacts on younger individuals with greater reproductive value. Here we infer associations between multi-locus homozygosity (MLH), sex, disease and age-dependent mortality risks using Bayesian analysis of the life histories of wild European badgers Meles meles in a population naturally infected with Mycobacterium bovis (the causative agent of bovine tuberculosis [bTB]). We find important effects of MLH on all parameters of the Gompertz-Makeham mortality hazard function, but particularly in later life. Our findings confirm the predicted association between genomic homozygosity and actuarial senescence. Increased homozygosity is particularly associated with an earlier onset, and greater rates of actuarial senescence, regardless of sex. The association between homozygosity and actuarial senescence is further amplified among badgers putatively infected with bTB. These results recommend further investigation into the ecological and behavioural processes that result in genome-wide homozygosity, and focused work on whether homozygosity is harmful or beneficial during early life-stages.Natural Environment Research Council (NERC)Natural Environment Research Council (NERC)Animal and Plant Health AgencyExpanding Excellence in EnglandUniversity of Exete

Importance sampling and Bayesian model comparison in ecology and evolution

This is the final version. Available on open access from Wiley via the DOI in this record. Data availability statement: All code and data presented in this manuscript are available via Zenodo (Hudson, 2023).Bayesian approaches to the modelling of ecological systems are increasingly popular, but there are competing methods for formal model comparisons. Here, we focus on the task of performing multimodel inference through estimating posterior model weights, which encompasses uncertainties in the choice of competing model structure into the inference outputs. Model-based approaches such as reversible-jump Markov chain Monte Carlo (RJ-MCMC) are flexible and allow multimodel inference, but can be complex to implement and optimise, and so we translate a model-based approach for ecological applications using Importance Sampling to estimate the marginal likelihood of the data given a particular model. This approach allows for model comparison through the estimation of Bayes' Factors or interpretable posterior model probabilities, yielding model weights that facilitate multimodel inference through Bayesian model averaging. We demonstrate Importance Sampling with two case study investigations in animal demography: censused analysis of banded mongoose (Mungos mungo) survival where missing data are uncommon, and capture–mark–recapture analysis of European badger (Meles meles) survival where data are commonly missing. We compare outcomes of the model comparison using the Importance Sampling approach to those obtained through single-model inference approaches using Deviance information criteria and the Watanabe–Akaike information criteria. The results of the Importance Sampling method aligns with RJ-MCMC model comparisons while often being more straightforward to fit and optimise, particularly if the competing models are non-nested.Natural Environment Research Council (NERC)Animal and Plant Health AgencyUniversity of Exete

Engaging Undergraduates to Solve Global Health Challenges: A New Approach Based on Bioengineering Design

Recent reports have highlighted the need for educational programs to prepare students for careers developing and disseminating new interventions that improve global public health. Because of its multi-disciplinary, design-centered nature, the field of Biomedical Engineering can play an important role in meeting this challenge. This article describes a new program at Rice University to give undergraduate students from all disciplines a broad background in bioengineering and global health and provides an initial assessment of program impact. Working in partnership with health care providers in developing countries, students in the Beyond Traditional Borders (BTB) initiative learn about health challenges of the poor and put this knowledge to work immediately, using the engineering design process as a framework to formulate solutions to complex global health challenges. Beginning with a freshman design project and continuing through a capstone senior design course, the BTB curriculum uses challenges provided by partners in the developing world to teach students to integrate perspectives from multiple disciplines, and to develop leadership, communication, and teamwork skills. Exceptional students implement their designs under the guidance of clinicians through summer international internships. Since 2006, 333 students have designed more than 40 technologies and educational programs; 28 have been implemented in sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America, the Caribbean, southeast Asia, and the United States. More than 18,000 people have benefited from these designs. 95% of alumni who completed an international internship reported that participation in the program changed or strengthened their career plans to include a focus on global health medicine, research, and/or policy. Empowering students to use bioengineering design to address real problems is an effective way to teach the new generation of leaders needed to solve global health challenges

Effects of short-term treatment with atorvastatin in smokers with asthma - a randomized controlled trial

<b>Background</b> The immune modulating properties of statins may benefit smokers with asthma. We tested the hypothesis that short-term treatment with atorvastatin improves lung function or indices of asthma control in smokers with asthma.<p></p> <b>Methods</b> Seventy one smokers with mild to moderate asthma were recruited to a randomized double-blind parallel group trial comparing treatment with atorvastatin (40 mg per day) versus placebo for 4 weeks. After 4 weeks treatment inhaled beclometasone (400 ug per day) was added to both treatment arms for a further 4 weeks. The primary outcome was morning peak expiratory flow after 4 weeks treatment. Secondary outcome measures included indices of asthma control and airway inflammation.<p></p> <b>Results</b> At 4 weeks, there was no improvement in the atorvastatin group compared to the placebo group in morning peak expiratory flow [-10.67 L/min, 95% CI -38.70 to 17.37, p=0.449], but there was an improvement with atorvastatin in asthma quality of life score [0.52, 95% CI 0.17 to 0.87 p=0.005]. There was no significant improvement with atorvastatin and inhaled beclometasone compared to inhaled beclometasone alone in outcome measures at 8 weeks.<p></p> <b>Conclusions</b> Short-term treatment with atorvastatin does not alter lung function but may improve asthma quality of life in smokers with mild to moderate asthma. Clinicaltrials.gov identifier: NCT0046382

An Investigation into the Poor Survival of an Endangered Coho Salmon Population

To investigate reasons for the decline of an endangered population of coho salmon (O. kisutch), 190 smolts were acoustically tagged during three consecutive years and their movements and survival were estimated using the Pacific Ocean Shelf Tracking project (POST) array. Median travel times of the Thompson River coho salmon smolts to the lower Fraser River sub-array were 16, 12 and 10 days during 2004, 2005 and 2006, respectively. Few smolts were recorded on marine arrays. Freshwater survival rates of the tagged smolts during their downstream migration were 0.0–5.6% (0.0–9.0% s.e.) in 2004, 7.0% (6.2% s.e.) in 2005, and 50.9% (18.6% s.e.) in 2006. Overall smolt-to-adult return rates exhibited a similar pattern, which suggests that low freshwater survival rates of out-migrating smolts may be a primary reason for the poor conservation status of this endangered coho salmon population

The developmental effects of media-ideal internalization and self-objectification processes on adolescents’ negative body-feelings, dietary restraint, and binge eating

Despite accumulated experimental evidence of the negative effects of exposure to media-idealized images, the degree to which body image, and eating related disturbances are caused by media portrayals of gendered beauty ideals remains controversial. On the basis of the most up-to-date meta-analysis of experimental studies indicating that media-idealized images have the most harmful and substantial impact on vulnerable individuals regardless of gender (i.e., “internalizers” and “self-objectifiers”), the current longitudinal study examined the direct and mediated links posited in objectification theory among media-ideal internalization, self-objectification, shame and anxiety surrounding the body and appearance, dietary restraint, and binge eating. Data collected from 685 adolescents aged between 14 and 15 at baseline (47 % males), who were interviewed and completed standardized measures annually over a 3-year period, were analyzed using a structural equation modeling approach. Results indicated that media-ideal internalization predicted later thinking and scrutinizing of one’s body from an external observer’s standpoint (or self-objectification), which then predicted later negative emotional experiences related to one’s body and appearance. In turn, these negative emotional experiences predicted subsequent dietary restraint and binge eating, and each of these core features of eating disorders influenced each other. Differences in the strength of these associations across gender were not observed, and all indirect effects were significant. The study provides valuable information about how the cultural values embodied by gendered beauty ideals negatively influence adolescents’ feelings, thoughts and behaviors regarding their own body, and on the complex processes involved in disordered eating. Practical implications are discussed

Modifying Hofstee standard setting for assessments that vary in difficulty, and to determine boundaries for different levels of achievement.

BACKGROUND: Fixed mark grade boundaries for non-linear assessment scales fail to account for variations in assessment difficulty. Where assessment difficulty varies more than ability of successive cohorts or the quality of the teaching, anchoring grade boundaries to median cohort performance should provide an effective method for setting standards. METHODS: This study investigated the use of a modified Hofstee (MH) method for setting unsatisfactory/satisfactory and satisfactory/excellent grade boundaries for multiple choice question-style assessments, adjusted using the cohort median to obviate the effect of subjective judgements and provision of grade quotas. RESULTS: Outcomes for the MH method were compared with formula scoring/correction for guessing (FS/CFG) for 11 assessments, indicating that there were no significant differences between MH and FS/CFG in either the effective unsatisfactory/satisfactory grade boundary or the proportion of unsatisfactory graded candidates (p > 0.05). However the boundary for excellent performance was significantly higher for MH (p < 0.01), and the proportion of candidates returned as excellent was significantly lower (p < 0.01). MH also generated performance profiles and pass marks that were not significantly different from those given by the Ebel method of criterion-referenced standard setting. CONCLUSIONS: This supports MH as an objective model for calculating variable grade boundaries, adjusted for test difficulty. Furthermore, it easily creates boundaries for unsatisfactory/satisfactory and satisfactory/excellent performance that are protected against grade inflation. It could be implemented as a stand-alone method of standard setting, or as part of the post-examination analysis of results for assessments for which pre-examination criterion-referenced standard setting is employed

Biomechanical effects of polyaxial pedicle screw fixation on the lumbosacral segments with an anterior interbody cage support

BACKGROUND: Lumbosacral fusion is a relatively common procedure that is used in the management of an unstable spine. The anterior interbody cage has been involved to enhance the stability of a pedicle screw construct used at the lumbosacral junction. Biomechanical differences between polyaxial and monoaxial pedicle screws linked with various rod contours were investigated to analyze the respective effects on overall construct stiffness, cage strain, rod strain, and contact ratios at the vertebra-cage junction. METHODS: A synthetic model composed of two ultrahigh molecular weight polyethylene blocks was used with four titanium pedicle screws (two in each block) and two rods fixation to build the spinal construct along with an anterior interbody cage support. For each pair of the construct fixed with polyaxial or monoaxial screws, the linked rods were set at four configurations to simulate 0°, 7°, 14°, and 21° lordosis on the sagittal plane, and a compressive load of 300 N was applied. Strain gauges were attached to the posterior surface of the cage and to the central area of the left connecting rod. Also, the contact area between the block and the cage was measured using prescale Fuji super low pressure film for compression, flexion, lateral bending and torsion tests. RESULTS: Our main findings in the experiments with an anterior interbody cage support are as follows: 1) large segmental lordosis can decrease the stiffness of monoaxial pedicle screws constructs; 2) polyaxial screws rather than monoaxial screws combined with the cage fixation provide higher compression and flexion stiffness in 21° segmental lordosis; 3) polyaxial screws enhance the contact surface of the cage in 21° segmental lordosis. CONCLUSION: Polyaxial screws system used in conjunction with anterior cage support yields higher contact ratio, compression and flexion stiffness of spinal constructs than monoaxial screws system does in the same model when the spinal segment is set at large lordotic angles. Polyaxial pedicle screw fixation performs nearly equal percentages of vertebra-cage contact among all constructs with different sagittal alignments, therefore enhances the stabilization effect of interbody cages in the lumbosacral area

Formation of beads-on-a-string structures during break-up of viscoelastic filaments

Break-up of viscoelastic filaments is pervasive in both nature and technology. If a filament is formed by placing a drop of saliva between a thumb and forefinger and is stretched, the filament’s morphology close to break-up corresponds to beads of several sizes interconnected by slender threads. Although there is general agreement that formation of such beads-on-a-string (BOAS) structures occurs only for viscoelastic fluids, the underlying physics remains unclear and controversial. The physics leading to the formation of BOAS structures is probed by numerical simulation. Computations reveal that viscoelasticity alone does not give rise to a small, satellite bead between two much larger main beads but that inertia is required for its formation. Viscoelasticity, however, enhances the growth of the bead and delays pinch-off, which leads to a relatively long-lived beaded structure. We also show for the first time theoretically that yet smaller, sub-satellite beads can also form as seen in experiments.National Science Foundation (U.S.). ERC-SOPS (EEC-0540855)Nanoscale Interdisciplinary Research Thrust on 'Directed Self-assembly of Suspended Polymer Fibers' (NSF-DMS0506941