Simpson's Paradox, Lord's Paradox, and Suppression Effects are the same phenomenon – the reversal paradox

This article discusses three statistical paradoxes that pervade epidemiological research: Simpson's paradox, Lord's paradox, and suppression. These paradoxes have important implications for the interpretation of evidence from observational studies. This article uses hypothetical scenarios to illustrate how the three paradoxes are different manifestations of one phenomenon – the reversal paradox – depending on whether the outcome and explanatory variables are categorical, continuous or a combination of both; this renders the issues and remedies for any one to be similar for all three. Although the three statistical paradoxes occur in different types of variables, they share the same characteristic: the association between two variables can be reversed, diminished, or enhanced when another variable is statistically controlled for. Understanding the concepts and theory behind these paradoxes provides insights into some controversial or contradictory research findings. These paradoxes show that prior knowledge and underlying causal theory play an important role in the statistical modelling of epidemiological data, where incorrect use of statistical models might produce consistent, replicable, yet erroneous results

Orbifold equivalence for finite density QCD and effective field theory

In the large N_c limit, some apparently different gauge theories turn out to be equivalent due to large N_c orbifold equivalence. We use effective field theory techniques to explore orbifold equivalence, focusing on the specific case of a recently discovered relation between an SO(2N_c) gauge theory and QCD. The equivalence to QCD has been argued to hold at finite baryon chemical potential, \mu_B, so long as one deforms the SO(2N_c) theory by certain "double-trace" terms. The deformed SO(2N_c) theory can be studied without a sign problem in the chiral limit, in contrast to SU(N_c) QCD at finite \mu_B. The purpose of the double-trace deformation in the SO(2N_c) theory is to prevent baryon number symmetry from breaking spontaneously at finite density, which is necessary for the equivalence to large N_c QCD to be valid. The effective field theory analysis presented here clarifies the physical significance of double-trace deformations, and strongly supports the proposed equivalence between the deformed SO(2N_c) theory and large N_c QCD at finite density.Comment: 39 pages, 5 figures, 2 tables. v2: Minor typo fixes and clarification

Multidisciplinary treatment for functional neurological symptoms: a prospective study.

Although functional neurological symptoms are often very disabling there is limited information on outcome after treatment. Here we prospectively assessed the short- and long-term efficacy of an inpatient multidisciplinary programme for patients with FNS. We also sought to determine predictors of good outcome by assessing the responsiveness of different scales administered at admission, discharge and follow-up. Sixty-six consecutive patients were included. Assessments at admission, discharge and at 1 year follow-up (55%) included: the Health of the Nation Outcome Scale, the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale, the Patient Health Questionnaire-15, the Revised Illness Perception Questionnaire, the Common Neurological Symptom Questionnaire, the Fear Questionnaire and the Canadian Occupational Performance Measure. At discharge and at 1 year follow-up patients were also asked to complete five-point self-rated scales of improvement. There were significant improvements in clinician-rated mental health and functional ability. In addition, patients reported that their levels of mood and anxiety had improved and that they were less bothered by somatic symptoms in general and neurological symptoms in particular. Two-thirds of patients rated their general health such as "better" or "much better" at discharge and this improvement was maintained over the following year. Change in HoNOS score was the only measure that successfully predicted patient-rated improvement. Our data suggest that a specialized multidisciplinary inpatient programme for FNS can provide long-lasting benefits in the majority of patients. Good outcome at discharge was exclusively predicted by improvement in the HoNOS which continued to improve over the 1 year following discharge

Urocortin-1 within the Centrally-Projecting Edinger-Westphal Nucleus Is Critical for Ethanol Preference

Converging lines of evidence point to the involvement of neurons of the centrally projecting Edinger-Westphal nucleus (EWcp) containing the neuropeptide Urocortin-1 (Ucn1) in excessive ethanol (EtOH) intake and EtOH sensitivity. Here, we expanded these previous findings by using a continuous-access, two-bottle choice drinking paradigm (3%, 6%, and 10% EtOH vs. tap water) to compare EtOH intake and EtOH preference in Ucn1 genetic knockout (KO) and wild-type (WT) mice. Based on previous studies demonstrating that electrolytic lesion of the EWcp attenuated EtOH intake and preference in high-drinking C57BL/6J mice, we also set out to determine whether EWcp lesion would differentially alter EtOH consumption in Ucn1 KO and WT mice. Finally, we implemented well-established place conditioning procedures in KO and WT mice to determine whether Ucn1 and the corticotropin-releasing factor type-2 receptor (CRF-R2) were involved in the rewarding and aversive effects of EtOH (2 g/kg, i.p.). Results from these studies revealed that (1) genetic deletion of Ucn1 dampened EtOH preference only in mice with an intact EWcp, but not in mice that received lesion of the EWcp, (2) lesion of the EWcp dampened EtOH intake in Ucn1 KO and WT mice, but dampened EtOH preference only in WT mice expressing Ucn1, and (3) genetic deletion of Ucn1 or CRF-R2 abolished the conditioned rewarding effects of EtOH, but deletion of Ucn1 had no effect on the conditioned aversive effects of EtOH. The current findings provide strong support for the hypothesis that EWcp-Ucn1 neurons play an important role in EtOH intake, preference, and reward

Colour categories are reflected in sensory stages of colour perception when stimulus issues are resolved

Debate exists about the time course of the effect of colour categories on visual processing. We investigated the effect of colour categories for two groups who differed in whether they categorised a blue-green boundary colour as the same- or different-category to a reliably-named blue colour and a reliably-named green colour. Colour differences were equated in just-noticeable differences to be equally discriminable. We analysed event-related potentials for these colours elicited on a passive visual oddball task and investigated the time course of categorical effects on colour processing. Support for category effects was found 100 ms after stimulus onset, and over frontal sites around 250 ms, suggesting that colour naming affects both early sensory and later stages of chromatic processing

Testicular Dysgenesis Syndrome and the Estrogen Hypothesis: A Quantitative Meta-Analysis

BACKGROUND: Male reproductive tract abnormalities such as hypospadias and cryptorchidism, and testicular cancer have been proposed to comprise a common syndrome together with impaired spermatogenesis with a common etiology resulting from the disruption of gonadal development during fetal life, the testicular dysgenesis syndrome (TDS). The hypothesis that in utero exposure to estrogenic agents could induce these disorders was first proposed in 1993. The only quantitative summary estimate of the association between prenatal exposure to estrogenic agents and testicular cancer was published over 10 years ago, and other systematic reviews of the association between estrogenic compounds, other than the potent pharmaceutical estrogen diethylstilbestrol (DES), and TDS end points have remained inconclusive. OBJECTIVES: We conducted a quantitative meta-analysis of the association between the end points related to TDS and prenatal exposure to estrogenic agents. Inclusion in this analysis was based on mechanistic criteria, and the plausibility of an estrogen receptor (ER)-–mediated mode of action was specifically explored. RESULTS: We included in this meta-analysis eight studies investigating the etiology of hypospadias and/or cryptorchidism that had not been identified in previous systematic reviews. Four additional studies of pharmaceutical estrogens yielded a statistically significant updated summary estimate for testicular cancer. CONCLUSIONS: The doubling of the risk ratios for all three end points investigated after DES exposure is consistent with a shared etiology and the TDS hypothesis but does not constitute evidence of an estrogenic mode of action. Results of the subset analyses point to the existence of unidentified sources of heterogeneity between studies or within the study population

Recontact in clinical practice: a survey of clinical genetics services in the United Kingdom

Purpose: To ascertain whether and how recontacting occurs in the United Kingdom. Method: A Web-based survey was administered online between October 2014 and July 2015. A link to the survey was circulated via an e-mail invitation to the clinical leads of the United Kingdom’s 23 clinical genetics services, with follow-up with senior clinical genetics staff. Results: The majority of UK services reported that they recontact patients and their family members. However, recontacting generally occurs in an ad hoc fashion when an unplanned event causes clinicians to review a file (a “trigger”). There are no standardized recontacting practices in the United Kingdom. More than half of the services were unsure whether formalized recontacting systems should be implemented. Some suggested greater patient involvement in the process of recontacting. Conclusion: This research suggests that a thorough evaluation of the efficacy and sustainability of potential recontacting systems within the National Health Service would be necessary before deciding whether and how to implement such a service or to create guidelines on best-practice models.This article is freely available via Open Access. Click on the 'Additional Link' above to access the full-text from the publisher's site.Publishe

Development of Functional and Molecular Correlates of Vaccine-Induced Protection for a Model Intracellular Pathogen, F. tularensis LVS

In contrast with common human infections for which vaccine efficacy can be evaluated directly in field studies, alternative strategies are needed to evaluate efficacy for slowly developing or sporadic diseases like tularemia. For diseases such as these caused by intracellular bacteria, serological measures of antibodies are generally not predictive. Here, we used vaccines varying in efficacy to explore development of clinically useful correlates of protection for intracellular bacteria, using Francisella tularensis as an experimental model. F. tularensis is an intracellular bacterium classified as Category A bioterrorism agent which causes tularemia. The primary vaccine candidate in the U.S., called Live Vaccine Strain (LVS), has been the subject of ongoing clinical studies; however, safety and efficacy are not well established, and LVS is not licensed by the U.S. FDA. Using a mouse model, we compared the in vivo efficacy of a panel of qualitatively different Francisella vaccine candidates, the in vitro functional activity of immune lymphocytes derived from vaccinated mice, and relative gene expression in immune lymphocytes. Integrated analyses showed that the hierarchy of protection in vivo engendered by qualitatively different vaccines was reflected by the degree of lymphocytes' in vitro activity in controlling the intramacrophage growth of Francisella. Thus, this assay may be a functional correlate. Further, the strength of protection was significantly related to the degree of up-regulation of expression of a panel of genes in cells recovered from the assay. These included IFN-γ, IL-6, IL-12Rβ2, T-bet, SOCS-1, and IL-18bp. Taken together, the results indicate that an in vitro assay that detects control of bacterial growth, and/or a selected panel of mediators, may ultimately be developed to predict the outcome of vaccine efficacy and to complement clinical trials. The overall approach may be applicable to intracellular pathogens in general

Analysis of single nucleotide polymorphisms in the FAS and CTLA-4 genes of peripheral T-cell lymphomas

Angioimmunoblastic T-cell lymphoma (AILT) represents a subset of T-cell lymphomas but resembles an autoimmune disease in many of its clinical aspects. Despite the phenotype of effector T-cells and high expression of FAS and CTLA-4 receptor molecules, tumor cells fail to undergo apoptosis. We investigated single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) of the FAS and CTLA-4 genes in 94 peripheral T-cell lymphomas. Although allelic frequencies of some FAS SNPs were enriched in AILT cases, none of these occurred at a different frequency compared to healthy individuals. Therefore, SNPs in these genes are not associated with the apoptotic defect and autoimmune phenomena in AILT